FL-28 House Election Winner
PM $71.8K
1
2
FL-28 House Election Winner
PM $71.8K
1
2
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 27, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Carlos Giménez (R) at 94%.
Polymarket
- Carlos Giménez (R)94%
- Phil Ehr (D)5.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $71.8K
Reported volume · provider units
2
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-28 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T03:00:06.086Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The supplied event, "FL-28 House Election Winner," is a Polymarket event in the Politics category [1]. Its rules state that the market "will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-28 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections" [1]. A candidate's party is determined by "their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation" at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. A candidate without such an affiliation is assigned a party based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus [1]. Resolution is based on "a consensus of credible reporting," and if there is ambiguity, the official results reported by the Federal Election Commission govern [1].
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-19T03:00:06.086Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-19T03:29:07.613Z [1]. The record is a single observation, not a live feed. Two binary markets are included. The Republican Party market shows a Yes price of 0.945 and a No price of 0.055. The Democratic Party market shows a Yes price of 0.055 and a No price of 0.945 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
Both markets list an end time of 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. The rules separately mention November 3, 2026 as the midterm election date [1]. Readers should compare the listed close time with the resolution wording rather than assume they match.
Coverage is complete for this event: all 2 saved markets are included and partialSample is false [1]. The source adds that this does not establish that the provider lists every possible real-world outcome [1]. No volume figures are supplied, so this snapshot cannot speak to liquidity or the number of participants.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why prices sit where they do, and it contains no reporting, polling, or news about FL-28. It does not show how prices have changed over time or how comparable markets have performed historically. Because this is one observation, later prices may differ. The outcome depends on how the rules' reporting-consensus and official-results provisions apply, and this evidence cannot predict that.
References
- Polymarket: FL-28 House Election Winner. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T03:00:06.086Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This contract concerns the U.S. House seat for Florida's 28th congressional district. The market resolves according to the party of the candidate who wins that seat in the 2026 midterm elections, which the rules state will take place on November 3, 2026 [1]. The rules say a candidate's party is determined by the ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party when all 2026 House elections are conclusively called by the market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to the Democratic or Republican party is assigned to one of those parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed intent to caucus at that same point [1]. The rules say resolution is based on the result as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, the market resolves solely on official results reported by the Federal Election Commission [1]. The event's listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. That is a listed end time in the contract data, not a separate announcement of when the race will be called. At the saved observation time of 2026-10-19T03:00:06.086Z, the event included two markets: one asking whether the Republican Party wins the seat and one asking whether the Democratic Party wins it [1]. The Republican Yes contract showed a price of 0.945 and the Democratic Yes contract showed 0.055 in that snapshot. These are recorded snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The saved event contains both markets for this contract, so this sample is not partial, though it describes only what the provider event lists and does not establish that every possible outcome is represented.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single outcome: which party's candidate wins the FL-28 House seat in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections, as defined by the resolution rules [1]. Because the rules tie the party label to ballot affiliation or stated caucus intent, the question is about the party designation at the time the race is conclusively called, not only about a candidate's campaign identity [1]. The resolution path, relying first on credible reporting consensus and then on FEC official results when there is ambiguity, determines how the outcome is settled [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
When is the election this contract refers to?
The rules state that the 2026 midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026 [1].
How is the winning party determined?
The party is based on the candidate's ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation when all 2026 House elections are conclusively called by the resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed Democratic or Republican affiliation is assigned to a party based on the party with which they most recently expressed intent to caucus [1].
What happens if the result is unclear?
The rules say the market resolves based on the consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, it resolves solely on the official results reported by the Federal Election Commission [1].
Do the prices show the chance of each party winning?
The prices are snapshots from the saved provider data at the observation time. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities, so they should not be read as confirmed chances of either party winning [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.
Saved prices; check contract rules.
Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
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