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Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Which tariffs will the House vote to eliminate before July?

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Which tariffs will the House vote to eliminate before July?

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Will legislation that terminates or otherwise limits tariffs imposed by the President of the United States on Mexico passed the House before Jul 1, 2026?

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Market	Platform	Price
Will legislation that terminates or otherwise limits tariffs imposed by the President of the United States on Mexico passed the House before Jul 1, 2026?	Kalshi	6%
Will legislation that terminates or otherwise limits tariffs imposed by the President of the United States on Brazil passed the House before Jul 1, 2026?	Kalshi	5%
Will legislation that terminates or otherwise limits global tariffs imposed by the President of the United States passed the House before Jul 1, 2026?	Kalshi	4%

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Before Jul 1, 2026 If legislation that terminates or otherwise limits tariffs imposed X has passed the House after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The bill must pass the full chamber, not just committee, for House or Senate passage. For "become law" markets, the bill must be signed by the President or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to No. Joint resolutions are treated as bills. Treaties require two-thirds Senate

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which tariffs will the House vote to eliminate before July?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Jul 1, 2026

If legislation that terminates or otherwise limits tariffs imposed X has passed the House after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The bill must pass the full chamber, not just committee, for House or Senate passage. For "become law" markets, the bill must be signed by the President or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to No. Joint resolutions are treated as bills. Treaties require two-thirds Senate

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If legislation that terminates or otherwise limits tariffs imposed by the President of the United States on Mexico has passed the House after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The bill must pass the full chamber (not just committee) for House or Senat"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will legislation that terminates or otherwise limits tariffs imposed by the President of the United States on Mexico passed the House before Jul 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will legislation that terminates or otherwise limits global tariffs imposed by the President of the United States passed the House before Jul 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.4% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will legislation that terminates or otherwise limits tariffs imposed by the President of the United States on Brazil passed the House before Jul 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

Which tariffs will the House vote to eliminate before July?

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KALSHI

Will legislation that terminates or otherwise limits tariffs imposed by the President of the United States on Mexico passed the House before Jul 1, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 6.0¢No 94.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will legislation that terminates or otherwise limits tariffs imposed by the President of the United States on Mexico passed the House before Jul 1, 2026?

If legislation that terminates or otherwise limits tariffs imposed by the President of the United States on Mexico has passed the House after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The bill must pass the full chamber (not just committee) for House or Senat

KALSHI

Will legislation that terminates or otherwise limits tariffs imposed by the President of the United States on Brazil passed the House before Jul 1, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 4.5¢No 95.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will legislation that terminates or otherwise limits tariffs imposed by the President of the United States on Brazil passed the House before Jul 1, 2026?

If legislation that terminates or otherwise limits tariffs imposed by the President of the United States on Brazil has passed the House after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The bill must pass the full chamber (not just committee) for House or Senat

KALSHI

Will legislation that terminates or otherwise limits global tariffs imposed by the President of the United States passed the House before Jul 1, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 3.7¢No 96.4¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will legislation that terminates or otherwise limits global tariffs imposed by the President of the United States passed the House before Jul 1, 2026?

If legislation that terminates or otherwise limits global tariffs imposed by the President of the United States has passed the House after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The bill must pass the full chamber (not just committee) for House or Senate p

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Which tariffs will the House vote to eliminate before July?

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Will legislation that terminates or otherwise limits tariffs imposed by the President of the United States on Mexico passed the House before Jul 1, 2026?

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Events (1)

Which tariffs will the House vote to eliminate before July?

Markets (3)

Will legislation that terminates or otherwise limits tariffs imposed by the President of the United States on Mexico passed the House before Jul 1, 2026?

Will legislation that terminates or otherwise limits tariffs imposed by the President of the United States on Mexico passed the House before Jul 1, 2026?

Will legislation that terminates or otherwise limits tariffs imposed by the President of the United States on Brazil passed the House before Jul 1, 2026?

Will legislation that terminates or otherwise limits tariffs imposed by the President of the United States on Brazil passed the House before Jul 1, 2026?

Will legislation that terminates or otherwise limits global tariffs imposed by the President of the United States passed the House before Jul 1, 2026?

Will legislation that terminates or otherwise limits global tariffs imposed by the President of the United States passed the House before Jul 1, 2026?

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Will legislation that terminates or otherwise limits tariffs imposed by the President of the United States on Mexico passed the House before Jul 1, 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Which tariffs will the House vote to eliminate before July?

Will legislation that terminates or otherwise limits tariffs imposed by the President of the United States on Mexico passed the House before Jul 1, 2026?

Will legislation that terminates or otherwise limits tariffs imposed by the President of the United States on Mexico passed the House before Jul 1, 2026?

Will legislation that terminates or otherwise limits tariffs imposed by the President of the United States on Brazil passed the House before Jul 1, 2026?

Will legislation that terminates or otherwise limits tariffs imposed by the President of the United States on Brazil passed the House before Jul 1, 2026?

Will legislation that terminates or otherwise limits global tariffs imposed by the President of the United States passed the House before Jul 1, 2026?

Will legislation that terminates or otherwise limits global tariffs imposed by the President of the United States passed the House before Jul 1, 2026?

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