Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Will Trump order more tariffs in Oct 2026?

Total Volume

$3.19K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Will Trump order more tariffs in Oct 2026?

Vol

$3.19K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $3.19K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $3.19K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on imposing new or increased tariffs on any country, provided the action specifies an effective date (even if such date occurs after expiration) during in Oct 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on imposing new or increased tariffs on any country, provided the action specifies an effective date (even if such date occurs after expiration) during in Oct 2026?	Kalshi	34%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

34%

Top Probability

$3.19K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

in Oct 2026 If Donald Trump has taken any executive action imposing new or increased tariffs on any country, provided the action specifies an effective date (even if such date occurs after expiration) in Oct 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The qualifying action must be of the specific type designated (executive order, presidential memorandum, proclamation, directive, determination, or finding), be signed by the President personally during the specified time period, and explicitly address

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Trump order more tariffs in Oct 2026?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** in Oct 2026

If Donald Trump has taken any executive action imposing new or increased tariffs on any country, provided the action specifies an effective date (even if such date occurs after expiration) in Oct 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The qualifying action must be of the specific type designated (executive order, presidential memorandum, proclamation, directive, determination, or finding), be signed by the President personally during the specified time period, and explicitly address

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Donald Trump has taken any executive action imposing new or increased tariffs on any country, provided the action specifies an effective date (even if such date occurs after expiration) in Oct 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The qualifying action must be of the specific ty"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $3.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on imposing new or increased tariffs on any country, provided the action specifies an effective date (even if such date occurs after expiration) during in Oct 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 8, 2026): Vol $3.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 34.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics