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In 2026 If a representative X party is sworn in as a Senator of North Carolina for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close early following the swearing in of the Senator for the seat in question. This market will close early following the swearing in of the Senator for the seat in question.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on the outcome of the 2028 United States Senate election in North Carolina. The market resolves based on which political party wins the seat and whose candidate is sworn in for the six-year term beginning in January 2029. The seat is currently held by Republican Senator Thom Tillis, who was first elected in 2014 and re-elected in 2020. His term expires on January 3, 2029. North Carolina has become one of the most competitive and expensive Senate battlegrounds in the country, with recent elections decided by narrow margins. The outcome will help determine which party controls the Senate in the 119th Congress. Interest in this market stems from North Carolina's status as a perennial swing state, its significant population growth, and its evolving political demographics. The race will likely feature massive campaign spending, intense national media coverage, and could be decisive for the balance of power in Washington.
North Carolina's Senate elections have grown increasingly competitive over the past two decades. For most of the 20th century, the state was a Democratic stronghold, but it began trending toward the national Republican party in the 1970s. A pivotal shift occurred in 2010 when Republican Richard Burr won re-election by 12 points and Republican Thom Tillis was elected to the Senate in 2014. However, the margins have tightened considerably since then. In 2016, Burr won re-election by just 5.7 points. The 2020 Senate race between Tillis and Democrat Cal Cunningham was one of the most expensive in history, with over $287 million spent. Tillis won by approximately 96,000 votes out of 5.4 million cast. In 2022, Republican Ted Budd defeated Democrat Cheri Beasley by about 114,000 votes. This pattern of close elections reflects the state's changing demographics, including growth in urban and suburban areas like Charlotte and the Research Triangle, alongside a stable Republican base in rural regions. The 2028 election will continue this trend of high-stakes, narrowly decided contests.
The winner of North Carolina's Senate seat will directly impact which party holds the majority in the U.S. Senate. A shift of just one or two seats can determine which party controls the chamber, setting the legislative agenda on issues from judicial confirmations to federal spending. For North Carolina, the election influences the state's clout in Washington. Seniority in the Senate affects committee assignments and the ability to direct federal projects and policy attention to the state. The race also serves as a barometer for national political trends. As a large, demographically diverse state that closely mirrors the national popular vote in recent presidential elections, North Carolina's Senate outcome often signals broader shifts in the American political climate. The campaign itself will pour hundreds of millions of dollars into the state's economy through advertising, staffing, and voter outreach efforts.
As of mid-2024, the 2028 North Carolina Senate race is in its earliest stages. Incumbent Senator Thom Tillis has not declared his intentions for re-election. The political landscape will be heavily shaped by the outcome of the 2024 elections, particularly the open-seat gubernatorial race between Democrat Josh Stein and Republican Mark Robinson. The 2024 presidential results in North Carolina will also provide data on voter trends and party strength. Potential candidates from both parties are likely assessing their prospects but will not make formal announcements until 2026 or 2027. The national party committees are already conducting polling and building voter data models in preparation for another costly battle.
The general election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. The winner will be sworn into office for a six-year term beginning on January 3, 2029. Party primaries will be held earlier in 2028.
Republican Thom Tillis holds the seat on the ballot in 2028. He was first elected in 2014 and re-elected in 2020. His current term expires on January 3, 2029.
The 2020 Senate race between Thom Tillis and Cal Cunningham saw total spending reach $287 million, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. The 2022 race for the state's other seat cost over $200 million.
The last Democrat to represent North Carolina in the U.S. Senate was Kay Hagan. She served one term from 2009 to 2015 after winning election in 2008. She lost her re-election bid to Thom Tillis in 2014.
North Carolina has a nearly even balance of Democratic and Republican voters, with a large and growing number of unaffiliated voters. Recent statewide elections have been decided by margins of less than four percentage points, and the state has split its votes for President and Senator in recent cycles.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi | Diff |
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| 83% | 79% | 4% |
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In 2026 If a representative X party is sworn in as a Senator of North Carolina for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close early following the swearing in of the Senator for the seat in question. This market will close early following the swearing in of the Senator for the seat in question.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm North Carolina U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless o
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm North Carolina U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Repu
If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of North Carolina for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close early following the swearing in of the Senator for the seat in question.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm North Carolina U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Repu
If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of North Carolina for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close early following the swearing in of the Senator for the seat in question.
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