Name: Q1 S&P 500 Performance
End: 2026-03-31T00:00:00.000Z

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Q1 S&P 500 Performance | PredictPedia

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9 markets tracked

Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be less than 0%?

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Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be less than 0%?	Poly	100%
Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 3% and 4%?	Poly	0%
Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 8% and 10%?	Poly	0%
Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be at least 10%?	Poly	0%
Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 0% and 2%?	Poly	0%
Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 2% and 3%?	Poly	0%
Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 5% and 6%?	Poly	0%
Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 4% and 5%?	Poly	0%
Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 6% and 8%?	Poly	0%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Wednesday, April 8, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Q1 S&P 500 Performance
**Category:** Economy | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Mar 31, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31). 

The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The clo

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31). 

The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SP"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $354.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $37.8K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 9.37)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be less than 0%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $43.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 100.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.1% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 3% and 4%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $43.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 8% and 10%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $35.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be at least 10%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $24.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 0% and 2%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $15.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 2% and 3%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $20.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 5% and 6%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $46.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 4% and 5%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $67.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 6% and 8%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $59.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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11¢

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Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be less than 0%?

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Events (1)

Q1 S&P 500 Performance

Markets (9)

Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be less than 0%?

Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be less than 0%?

Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 3% and 4%?

Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 3% and 4%?

Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 8% and 10%?

Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 8% and 10%?

Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be at least 10%?

Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be at least 10%?

Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 0% and 2%?

Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 0% and 2%?

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be less than 0%?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Q1 S&P 500 Performance

Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be less than 0%?

Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be less than 0%?

Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 3% and 4%?

Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 3% and 4%?

Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 8% and 10%?

Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 8% and 10%?

Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be at least 10%?

Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be at least 10%?

Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 0% and 2%?

Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 0% and 2%?

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Discussion

Share

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