New pandemic in 2026?
PM $1.26M
1
1
New pandemic in 2026?
PM $1.26M
1
1
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 26, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC, Yes is priced at 3.3% on Polymarket.
Polymarket
- Yes3.3%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $1.26M
Reported volume · provider units
1
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 26, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares any disease a pandemic between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-20T00:00:06.267Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The saved Polymarket event asks whether the World Health Organization will declare any disease a pandemic during a set window. The rule states that the market "will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares any disease a pandemic between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No"" [1]. The stated resolution source is "official announcements from the World Health Organization" [1]. The contract therefore concerns a formal WHO declaration, not a general view of pandemic risk or a broader health event.
The listed end time is 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z [1]. This is the UTC equivalent of the 11:59 PM ET cutoff in the rule, so the two describe the same deadline. The end time is a contract closing time, not an announced event date.
Reading the snapshot
The snapshot was observed at 2026-10-20T00:00:06Z and retrieved at 2026-10-20T00:30:18Z. The provider reported the market as active. The quoted prices were 0.0345 for "Yes" and 0.9655 for "No" [1]. These are snapshot prices at one moment. They are not executable quotes, and they should not be read as verified probabilities.
The sample includes one market from one provider event, and the coverage record shows that all saved markets for this event are included [1]. Because there is only one contract, no comparison across contracts or platforms is possible from this evidence. The price difference between the two outcomes is simply the quoted pair at that moment.
The snapshot does not show trading volume, number of traders, or the reasons for the quoted prices. Volume would not indicate liquidity in any case, and the evidence provides no explanation for how the price was set.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not describe any WHO declaration, pending process, or news related to this question. It also does not establish whether the provider lists every possible real-world outcome, although for this single-contract event the saved market is the only one reported [1]. Readers should check the current contract page and the WHO's official announcements directly, since this snapshot reflects only the moment it was observed.
References
- Polymarket: New pandemic in 2026?. Provider data observed 2026-10-20T00:00:06.267Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 20, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia entry covers a Polymarket contract titled "New pandemic in 2026?", filed under the Climate category. The contract asks whether the World Health Organization (WHO) will declare any disease a pandemic during 2026. Under the contract rules, it resolves "Yes" if such a declaration is made between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, and "No" otherwise [1]. The resolution source is official WHO announcements, so the outcome depends on what the WHO itself announces rather than on news coverage or other reporting [1]. The provider listed the market as active when it was observed. The provider also lists an end time of January 1, 2027 at 04:59 UTC [1]. This matches the 11:59 PM ET cutoff on December 31, 2026 in the contract rules. The end time is a provider field tied to the contract's closing, not a separate scheduled event or an announced WHO action. The contract window has a defined end, but the sources supplied here do not show whether any WHO declaration has been made. The sample for this entry contains one market from one provider event, and it is the only saved market for that event [1]. Each outcome in the sample is a single snapshot of a price, not an executable quote or a verified probability. A price on this contract reflects trading activity at the observation time and should not be read as a forecast of whether the WHO will declare a pandemic.
Why It Matters
The contract measures one specific event: whether the WHO declares any disease a pandemic between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET [1]. The wording is narrow. It refers to a formal declaration by one named organization, not to the existence of an outbreak, a severe disease, or general public concern about health threats. Anyone reading the price should keep that distinction in mind. The contract also depends on the WHO's official announcements as the resolution source, so the question is answered by that source's own statements within the stated window [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-20 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What event would make this contract resolve Yes?
The contract resolves "Yes" if the World Health Organization declares any disease a pandemic between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET [1].
What source determines the outcome?
The stated resolution source is official announcements from the World Health Organization [1].
When does the contract close?
The provider lists an end time of January 1, 2027 at 04:59 UTC [1]. This corresponds to the 11:59 PM ET cutoff on December 31, 2026 stated in the contract rules [1].
Does a price on this contract show how likely a pandemic is?
No. The prices shown are snapshots of market activity at a specific observation time. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Related prediction markets
Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
Where will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?
PM $42.2K
Highest temperature in New York City on Oct 26, 2026?
K 25.0K contracts
Lowest temperature in New York City on Oct 26, 2026?
K 2.5K contracts
Highest temperature in New Orleans on Oct 26, 2026?
K 1.1K contracts
Lowest temperature in New Orleans on Oct 26, 2026?
K 528.76 contracts
Exceptional drought (D4) by state — week of October 27, 2026
PM $0Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
0
No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
