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$1.62K
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This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the IN-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any r
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on the Democratic Party primary for Indiana's 7th congressional district, scheduled for May 5, 2026. The market will resolve to the candidate who wins the nomination to run for the U.S. House seat in the November 2026 midterm elections. Indiana's 7th district is a Democratic stronghold centered on Indianapolis, encompassing most of Marion County. The seat has been held by Democrats since 1975, making the primary election the decisive contest for who will represent the district in Congress. The current representative, André Carson, has held the seat since a 2008 special election. Interest in this market stems from the potential for an open seat race if Carson retires or seeks other office, which would trigger a competitive primary among local Democratic politicians. The outcome will signal the direction of the Democratic Party in a major urban district and determine who represents over 750,000 constituents in Washington. Political observers monitor this district as a bellwether for Democratic politics in Midwestern cities.
Indiana's 7th congressional district has existed since 1843, though its boundaries have changed significantly. The district became a Democratic stronghold after Andrew Jacobs Jr. won the seat in 1964. Jacobs served until 1997, with a two-year interruption after losing in the 1972 Nixon landslide. Julia Carson, Andrew Jacobs's former aide, won the seat in 1996 and became the first African American to represent Indiana in Congress. She served six terms until her death in December 2007. Her grandson, André Carson, won the March 2008 special election with 53% of the vote against 15 opponents in the Democratic primary. He has been reelected comfortably since, winning with 62% of the vote in 2022. The district's boundaries were last redrawn in 2021 by Indiana's Republican-controlled legislature. The new map maintained the district's Democratic lean by concentrating Marion County's Democratic voters, giving Joe Biden a 61-37% victory margin in the 2020 presidential election. Primary challenges to Carson have been rare, with his most significant contest occurring in 2008 when he faced State Representative David Orentlicher in the special election primary. The district's demographic composition has shifted from majority white to majority minority, with the 2020 census showing 41% white, 41% Black, and 12% Hispanic residents.
The IN-07 Democratic primary winner will likely become the next member of Congress from this safely Democratic district, giving them influence over federal policy affecting Indianapolis residents. This includes decisions about infrastructure funding, public safety grants, and healthcare policy that directly impact the district's 760,000 constituents. The primary outcome will signal which faction of the Democratic Party holds sway in urban Indiana, potentially influencing party direction in similar Midwestern districts. A competitive primary could reveal divisions within the local Democratic coalition between progressive activists, establishment figures, and community organizations. The election matters to national Democrats because IN-07 is one of only two Democratic districts in Indiana, making its representative important for maintaining party visibility in a predominantly Republican state. The winner will help determine whether Democrats can regain control of the House of Representatives in 2026, as every seat counts in what will likely be another narrowly divided Congress.
As of late 2024, no candidates have officially declared for the 2026 IN-07 Democratic primary. Representative André Carson has not announced whether he will seek a tenth full term. He will be 51 years old in 2026 and has given no public indication of retirement plans. Potential candidates are likely conducting informal polling and consulting with donors and party officials about their prospects. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee includes IN-07 on its list of Democratic-held seats to protect, though it remains a low concern given the district's strong partisan lean. Local political observers expect the field to clarify by late 2025, after the 2024 election cycle concludes and political operatives shift focus to 2026 races.
André Carson has represented Indiana's 7th district since winning a March 2008 special election. He succeeded his grandmother, Julia Carson, who held the seat from 1997 until her death in 2007. Carson serves on the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence and the Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure.
Indiana's primary election for all federal and state offices is scheduled for Tuesday, May 5, 2026. This includes the Democratic primary for IN-07. The general election will follow on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
The district includes most of Indianapolis, specifically the majority of Marion County. It contains downtown Indianapolis, the near-northside, the eastside, and portions of the westside. The district also includes the exclave cities of Beech Grove and Speedway, which are surrounded by Indianapolis.
Carson's most competitive primary occurred in the 2008 special election when he faced State Representative David Orentlicher and five other candidates. He won that primary with 46% of the vote. Since becoming the incumbent, he has faced only nominal primary opposition, typically winning with over 80% of the vote.
The market resolves to the candidate who wins the Democratic nomination on May 5, 2026. If no nominee is officially announced by November 3, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'Other.' The resolution source is a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including the Democratic National Committee's website.
Indiana completed redistricting in 2021 using 2020 census data. The next redistricting will occur after the 2030 census, so district boundaries will remain unchanged for the 2026 election. The current map was drawn by Republican state legislators and approved in October 2021.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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