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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will the Republican Party win the TX-13 House seat? | Poly | 92% |
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-13 House seat? | Poly | 9% |
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This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed af
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market concerns the outcome of the 2026 election for Texas's 13th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. The market will resolve based on the party affiliation of the winning candidate as determined by major media outlets and election authorities following the November 4, 2026, midterm elections. Texas's 13th district is a large, rural district covering much of the Texas Panhandle and parts of North Texas, including cities like Amarillo and Wichita Falls. It is one of the most reliably Republican districts in the nation, having elected only Republican representatives since its creation in the 1880s. The seat is currently held by Representative Ronny Jackson, a Republican and former White House physician. The 2026 election will be the first for this seat following the 2024 presidential election cycle, making it a potential early indicator of national political trends. Interest in this market stems from its value as a bellwether for Republican strength in a deep-red district and the possibility, however remote, of a political upset that could signal broader electoral shifts. Observers will monitor candidate recruitment, fundraising, and national political currents to gauge the race's competitiveness.
Texas's 13th congressional district has existed since 1883 and has never elected a Democrat to the U.S. House. For most of the 20th century, it was represented by conservative Democrats until the district's political alignment shifted decisively with the election of Republican Bill Sarpalius in 1988. Sarpalius served until 1995, when he was defeated in the Republican primary by Mac Thornberry. Thornberry held the seat for 13 terms, from 1995 to 2021, often running unopposed or winning by margins exceeding 50 percentage points. His retirement in 2020 led to an open primary where Ronny Jackson emerged from a crowded field of 15 Republicans. Jackson won the 2020 general election with 79.7% of the vote. The district's boundaries were last redrawn in 2021 by the Texas Legislature following the 2020 census. The redistricting process further solidified the Republican advantage; the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index rates TX-13 as R+33, meaning it performs 33 points more Republican than the national average. This makes it one of the top ten most Republican districts in the United States.
The outcome of the TX-13 House election matters because it serves as a barometer for the Republican Party's hold on its most secure territories. A significant shift in vote share or a Democratic upset, while statistically unlikely, would signal a major political realignment with implications for control of the U.S. House. The district's electorate influences national policy through its representative's votes on agriculture, energy, and defense spending, all key industries in the region. For residents of the Texas Panhandle, the election determines who will advocate for local interests in Washington, particularly regarding farm policy, water rights, and military installations like Sheppard Air Force Base. A change in party control would represent a historic break from over a century of political continuity and could affect federal resource allocation for the district.
As of late 2024, Representative Ronny Jackson has not formally declared his intentions for the 2026 election cycle. He is widely expected to seek re-election, given his incumbency and the district's partisan makeup. No prominent Democratic or Republican challengers have announced campaigns. The political landscape will be shaped by the results of the November 2024 presidential and congressional elections, which could influence national party strategies and resource allocation for the 2026 midterms. The district boundaries remain unchanged from the 2021 redistricting cycle and are not scheduled for revision until after the 2030 census.
The current U.S. Representative for Texas's 13th congressional district is Republican Ronny Jackson. He was first elected in 2020 and previously served as a White House physician.
The 2026 general election for Texas's 13th congressional district will be held on Tuesday, November 4, 2026. This date is set by federal law for the biennial election of all U.S. House members.
No. Since the district's creation in 1883, every person elected to represent Texas's 13th district in the U.S. House has been a Republican or, historically, a conservative Democrat before the district's realignment. It is the only congressional district in Texas to have never elected a Democrat.
Texas's 13th congressional district includes Amarillo, Wichita Falls, and Burkburnett. It also encompasses many smaller towns and rural areas across 41 counties in the Panhandle and North Texas.
Prediction markets like this one typically resolve based on calls from designated resolution sources, such as major media outlets (e.g., Associated Press) or official state certification. The winner is the candidate whose victory is conclusively called by these sources after Election Day.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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