Events
GroupPOLYMARKET
Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics
Tulsi Gabbard out by March 31?
Total Volume
$21.24K
Events
1
Markets
1
Tulsi Gabbard out by March 31?
Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison
Polymarket
1
markets · $21.24K
Kalshi
0
markets · $0.00
Price Spread
0.0%avg
max 0.0%
Arbitrage
0
of 0 cross-platform
Volume DistributionTotal: $21.24K
100%
Polymarket leads
Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph
1 market tracked
Tulsi Gabbard out by March 31?
No data available
Single-Platform Markets(1)
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 3% |
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
3%
Top Probability
$21.24K
Volume
1
Markets
1
Platforms
About This Event
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tulsi Gabbard ceases to be the Director of National Intelligence for any period of time between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Gabbard's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from th
What Prediction Markets Are Forecasting
Prediction markets currently give about a 3% chance that Tulsi Gabbard will leave her role as Director of National Intelligence before the end of March. In simpler terms, traders see this as very unlikely, roughly a 1 in 33 chance. The market expresses high confidence that she will remain in the position through this short-term period.
Why the Market Sees It This Way
The low probability reflects a few practical realities. First, Gabbard was only confirmed by the Senate in February. A resignation or removal so soon after a contentious confirmation process would be highly unusual and politically disruptive. Second, there is no public signal from the White House or from Gabbard herself suggesting any imminent departure. While she was a controversial nominee, the administration likely wants stability in a key national security role. Historically, cabinet-level officials typically serve for more than a few months barring a major scandal or policy rupture, neither of which is currently evident.
Key Dates and Events to Watch
The main date is the deadline itself: March 31, 2026. Any official statement from the White House press secretary or from Gabbard announcing a future resignation would immediately settle the market to "Yes," even if the departure takes effect later. A sudden, unforeseen political crisis or a major public disagreement between Gabbard and the President could also change the odds quickly. In the absence of such news, the prediction will simply expire at the end of the month.
How Reliable Are These Predictions?
For short-term forecasts about political personnel changes, prediction markets often have a decent track record when there are no clear catalysts for change. They effectively aggregate the view that "no news means no change." However, they can be slow to price in brewing scandals that aren't yet public. The 3% chance isn't zero, acknowledging that unpredictable events can always happen, but it shows traders see a routine, stable month ahead for this office.
Current Market Outlook
The Polymarket contract "Tulsi Gabbard out by March 31?" is trading at 3¢, indicating a 3% probability the market assigns to her leaving the Director of National Intelligence role before the deadline. This price reflects near-certainty she will remain in the position. With only $21,000 in total volume, liquidity is thin, making the price more sensitive to small trades but still signaling a strong consensus.
Key Factors Driving the Odds
The 3% probability is anchored in political stability. Gabbard was confirmed as Director of National Intelligence in February 2025 with bipartisan support, a process designed for tenure. Historically, cabinet-level intelligence chiefs in an administration's first term rarely resign or are removed within their first year absent a major scandal. No public reporting or credible rumors suggest internal conflict or performance issues that would precipitate an early departure. The market effectively prices this as a non-event for the next 30 days.
What Could Change These Odds
A sudden, unforeseen political crisis is the primary catalyst that could shift this market. An official announcement of her resignation for personal reasons, a major intelligence failure publicly attributed to her office, or a significant conflict with the President would cause the "Yes" share price to spike. However, the short 30-day window until resolution limits time for such a scenario to develop. The most likely path to a price move is speculative trading based on unverified rumors, which could create temporary volatility in this low-liquidity market.
Background Context
Tulsi Gabbard's appointment marked a notable political shift. The former Democratic congresswoman and 2020 presidential candidate, who later left the Democratic Party, was a surprise pick for the critical, traditionally non-partisan intelligence role. Her confirmation underscored the administration's focus on aligning cabinet officials with its political vision. The stability of her position is now a minor proxy for the administration's internal cohesion, though the market currently sees no fractures.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.