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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETClimate

Highest temperature in Wellington on May 2?

Name: Highest temperature in Wellington on May 2?
End: 2026-05-02T12:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$28.21K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Highest temperature in Wellington on May 2?

Vol

$28.21K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $28.21K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $28.21K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

8 markets tracked

Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 2?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 2?	Poly	55%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 2?	Poly	37%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 2?	Poly	6%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 2?	Poly	6%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on May 2?	Poly	1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C or higher on May 2?	Poly	0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 2?	Poly	0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on May 2?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

55%

Top Probability

$28.21K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN. To toggle betw

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Highest temperature in Wellington on May 2?
**Category:** Climate | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 2, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.

To toggle betw

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $21.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $8.4K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 2.56)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on May 2?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 2, 2026): Vol $3.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 2?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 2, 2026): Vol $2.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 2?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 2, 2026): Vol $3.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 2?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 2, 2026): Vol $2.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 37.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 63.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 2?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 2, 2026): Vol $2.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 54.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 45.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 2?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 2, 2026): Vol $3.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on May 2?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 2, 2026): Vol $3.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.2% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C or higher on May 2?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 2, 2026): Vol $2.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETClimate