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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 17, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. An
Prediction markets currently assign a low probability to State Senator Robert Peters securing the Democratic nomination for Illinois' 2nd Congressional District. With his contract trading at just 30% on Polymarket, the market implies a roughly 1-in-3 chance of a Peters victory. This pricing suggests he is a credible contender but is viewed as the underdog against the field of potential "Other" candidates. The market exhibits thin liquidity, with only about $1,000 in total volume, indicating that this consensus is tentative and not heavily traded.
The primary factor suppressing Robert Peters' odds is the political reality of IL-02, a deep-blue district currently represented by Congresswoman Robin Kelly. While Kelly has not formally announced her 2026 intentions, incumbents typically seek re-election, and the market likely assumes she will run again. Challenging a sitting incumbent from one's own party is historically difficult, which caps Peters' perceived chances. Furthermore, Peters' progressive profile, while strong in his state senate district, may face a broader electorate in a congressional primary that includes the Chicago South Side and southern suburbs.
Second, the "Other" category at 70% is a catch-all that heavily factors in the high likelihood of Robin Kelly running. It also accounts for the possibility of other high-profile local politicians, such as Chicago aldermen or state representatives from the district, entering the race should Kelly retire, a scenario that would create a crowded and unpredictable open primary.
The single largest catalyst will be Congresswoman Robin Kelly's formal declaration of her 2026 plans, expected well before the March 2026 primary. An announcement that she will retire would immediately cause a seismic shift in the market, likely making Peters a top-tier candidate and drastically shortening his odds. Conversely, her confirmation that she is running for re-election would likely push his probability toward zero.
A secondary catalyst will be Peters' own capacity to build a war chest and secure major endorsements. Demonstrated fundraising strength or a key institutional endorsement in the coming months could signal viability and narrow the odds gap, even against an incumbent. The market will remain highly sensitive to any official candidate announcements throughout 2025.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
The IL-02 Democratic Primary Winner prediction market forecasts which candidate will secure the Democratic Party's nomination to represent Illinois's 2nd congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives for the 2026 midterm elections. This primary, scheduled for March 17, 2026, is a critical internal party contest that will determine who challenges the Republican candidate in the general election for a seat that has been a Democratic stronghold for decades. The district, covering parts of Chicago's South Side and southern suburbs, is one of the most reliably Democratic districts in the nation, making the primary winner the overwhelming favorite to win the general election. The market resolves based on official Democratic Party sources, with a fallback to 'Other' if no nominee is declared by November 3, 2026. Interest in this market stems from its role as a barometer for Democratic Party dynamics in a safe seat, where primary battles often reflect broader ideological and demographic shifts within the party. The outcome can signal the strength of progressive versus establishment wings, influence national party strategy, and determine representation for a predominantly African-American constituency that has produced significant political leaders. The race gains additional significance as it follows the 2024 retirement of longtime Representative Robin Kelly, who left the seat to become Lieutenant Governor of Illinois, creating an open seat for the first time in over a decade.
Illinois's 2nd congressional district has a distinctive political history shaped by demographic changes and legal mandates. Created following the 1990 Census to provide African-American representation under the Voting Rights Act, the district elected its first representative, Mel Reynolds, in 1992. Reynolds resigned in 1995 following conviction on sexual assault charges, leading to a special election won by Jesse Jackson Jr., who served from December 1995 until his resignation in November 2012 amid federal investigation. Jackson's tenure established the district as a progressive stronghold, though his resignation created turmoil. The 2013 special election to replace Jackson featured a crowded Democratic primary with 16 candidates, ultimately won by Robin Kelly, who emphasized gun control after the Sandy Hook shooting. Kelly held the seat comfortably until 2024, when she resigned to become Lieutenant Governor under Governor J.B. Pritzker. This created the first open seat primary since 2013. The district's boundaries were last redrawn in 2021 following the 2020 Census, maintaining its Democratic lean with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+28, one of the most Democratic districts in the nation. Historically, the primary winner has gone on to win the general election by margins exceeding 50 percentage points, making the Democratic primary the de facto election for this seat.
The IL-02 Democratic primary matters significantly because it determines representation for over 700,000 residents in a district that faces distinct economic and social challenges. The South Side and south suburbs contain areas with above-average poverty rates, persistent gun violence, and healthcare disparities, making effective advocacy in Congress crucial for federal resources and policy attention. The winner will help shape legislation on urban investment, public safety grants, and healthcare access that directly affects district residents. Politically, this primary serves as a testing ground for Democratic factional strength. A victory by a progressive challenger could signal leftward movement in safe Democratic seats nationwide, while an establishment win would demonstrate the enduring power of traditional party organizations. The outcome also influences the Democratic caucus in the House, potentially adding a vote for or against party leadership on key issues. For national observers, this race offers insights into African-American political preferences, the evolving Chicago political machine, and how open seats in overwhelmingly Democratic districts are contested in the post-redistricting era.
As of late 2024, the IL-02 Democratic primary is in its early formative stage following Robin Kelly's departure from the seat. No candidates have officially declared their intention to run, though several potential contenders are reportedly conducting internal polling and meeting with community leaders. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has listed IL-02 as a 'Democratic Hold' priority but has not indicated preferred candidates. Local Democratic ward and township organizations are beginning to assess potential candidates, with particular attention to who can raise the estimated $1-2 million needed for a competitive primary campaign. The timing of the primary, March 17, 2026, means formal campaigning likely will not intensify until late 2025, but behind-the-scenes coalition building is already underway. The Illinois State Board of Elections will begin accepting candidate petitions in late 2025, with a filing deadline typically in early December 2025.
The Illinois Democratic primary for the 2nd congressional district is scheduled for March 17, 2026. This is the statewide primary date set by Illinois election law for the 2026 midterm elections.
As of January 2025, the seat is vacant following Robin Kelly's resignation to become Lieutenant Governor of Illinois. A special election was held to fill the remainder of her term, but the 2026 election will be for a full two-year term starting in January 2027.
The district encompasses parts of Chicago's South Side, including neighborhoods like South Shore, Chatham, and Roseland, and extends south through Cook County suburbs such as Homewood, Flossmoor, and Chicago Heights, plus all of Kankakee County.
The market resolves to the candidate officially nominated by the Democratic Party, based on consensus of official Democratic sources including democrats.org. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'Other'.
No, since its creation in 1992 following the 1990 Census, Illinois's 2nd congressional district has always elected Democratic representatives. The district was specifically drawn to provide African-American representation and has maintained strong Democratic majorities.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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