Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

SOFR for October 9, 2026

Total Volume

$5.80K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

SOFR for October 9, 2026

Vol

$5.80K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $5.80K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $5.80K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 9, 2026 be exactly 3.87%?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 9, 2026 be exactly 3.87%?	Kalshi	76%
Will the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 9, 2026 be exactly 3.86%?	Kalshi	21%
Will the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 9, 2026 be exactly 3.88%?	Kalshi	21%
Will the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 9, 2026 be at most 3.85%?	Kalshi	2%
Will the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 9, 2026 be exactly 3.90%?	Kalshi	2%
Will the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 9, 2026 be exactly 3.89%?	Kalshi	2%
Will the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 9, 2026 be at least 3.91%?	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

76%

Top Probability

$5.80K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

October 9, 2026 If the Secured Overnight Financing Rate, SOFR, for October 9, 2026 is at X Y then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the initially reported SOFR for October 9, 2026 in the table named “Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data” in the column labeled “Rate, %, ”. Later revisions will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value. This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** SOFR for October 9, 2026
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** October 9, 2026

If the Secured Overnight Financing Rate, SOFR, for October 9, 2026 is at X Y then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the initially reported SOFR for October 9, 2026 in the table named “Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data” in the column labeled “Rate, %, ”. Later revisions will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value. This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 9, 2026 is at least 3.91%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the initially reported SOFR for October 9, 2026 in the table named “Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data” in the column labeled “Rate (%)”. Later"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $5.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 9, 2026 be at least 3.91%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $5.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 9, 2026 be at most 3.85%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $23
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 9, 2026 be exactly 3.90%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $130
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 9, 2026 be exactly 3.89%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $445
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 9, 2026 be exactly 3.88%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $22
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 9, 2026 be exactly 3.87%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $26
  DATA: [Yes: 76.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 24.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 9, 2026 be exactly 3.86%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $45
  DATA: [Yes: 21.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

SOFR for October 9, 2026

Volume$5.80K

Markets7

7 of 7

Sort:

KALSHI

Will the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 9, 2026 be exactly 3.87%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 76.0¢No 24.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 9, 2026 be exactly 3.87%?

If the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 9, 2026 is exactly 3.87%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the initially reported SOFR for October 9, 2026 in the table named “Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data” in the column labeled “Rate (%)”. Later

KALSHI

Will the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 9, 2026 be exactly 3.86%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 21.0¢No 79.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 9, 2026 be exactly 3.86%?

If the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 9, 2026 is exactly 3.86%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the initially reported SOFR for October 9, 2026 in the table named “Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data” in the column labeled “Rate (%)”. Later

KALSHI

Will the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 9, 2026 be exactly 3.88%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 20.5¢No 79.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 9, 2026 be exactly 3.88%?

If the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 9, 2026 is exactly 3.88%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the initially reported SOFR for October 9, 2026 in the table named “Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data” in the column labeled “Rate (%)”. Later

KALSHI

Will the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 9, 2026 be at most 3.85%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 2.0¢No 98.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 9, 2026 be at most 3.85%?

If the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 9, 2026 is at most 3.85%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the initially reported SOFR for October 9, 2026 in the table named “Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data” in the column labeled “Rate (%)”. Later

KALSHI

Will the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 9, 2026 be exactly 3.90%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 1.5¢No 98.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 9, 2026 be exactly 3.90%?

If the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 9, 2026 is exactly 3.90%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the initially reported SOFR for October 9, 2026 in the table named “Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data” in the column labeled “Rate (%)”. Later

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

18¢

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SOFR for October 9, 2026

SOFR for October 9, 2026

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Will the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 9, 2026 be exactly 3.87%?

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About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

SOFR for October 9, 2026

Markets (7)

Will the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 9, 2026 be exactly 3.87%?

Will the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 9, 2026 be exactly 3.87%?

Will the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 9, 2026 be exactly 3.86%?

Will the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 9, 2026 be exactly 3.86%?

Will the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 9, 2026 be exactly 3.88%?

Will the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 9, 2026 be exactly 3.88%?

Will the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 9, 2026 be at most 3.85%?

Will the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 9, 2026 be at most 3.85%?

Will the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 9, 2026 be exactly 3.90%?

Will the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 9, 2026 be exactly 3.90%?

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Will the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 9, 2026 be exactly 3.87%?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

SOFR for October 9, 2026

Will the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 9, 2026 be exactly 3.87%?

Will the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 9, 2026 be exactly 3.87%?

Will the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 9, 2026 be exactly 3.86%?

Will the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 9, 2026 be exactly 3.86%?

Will the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 9, 2026 be exactly 3.88%?

Will the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 9, 2026 be exactly 3.88%?

Will the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 9, 2026 be at most 3.85%?

Will the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 9, 2026 be at most 3.85%?

Will the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 9, 2026 be exactly 3.90%?

Will the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 9, 2026 be exactly 3.90%?

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