This prediction market addresses the possibility of North Korea launching a military invasion of South Korea before the end of 2026. The market resolves based on whether North Korea commences an offensive intended to establish control over any portion of South Korean territory, with resolution sources including official confirmation by either Korean government, the United Nations, any permanent UN Security Council member, or a consensus of credible reporting. The question emerges from escalating tensions on the Korean Peninsula, characterized by North Korea's accelerated weapons testing, abandonment of reunification rhetoric, and heightened military posturing from both sides. Recent years have seen a significant deterioration in inter-Korean relations, with the 2018-2019 diplomatic thaw completely reversed. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has declared South Korea a 'primary foe' and 'invariable principal enemy,' dismantling agencies dedicated to peaceful reunification. Concurrently, North Korea has conducted record numbers of missile tests, including solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missiles and tactical nuclear-capable systems, while expanding its military cooperation with Russia. These developments, combined with South Korea's strengthened alliance with the United States and Japan, have created the most volatile security environment in decades, prompting serious analysis of conflict scenarios.

Historical Context

The division of Korea dates to the end of World War II in 1945, when the peninsula was split along the 38th parallel into Soviet and U.S. occupation zones. This division hardened after the Korean War (1950-1953), which began with North Korea's invasion of South Korea on June 25, 1950. The war resulted in approximately 3 million casualties and ended with an armistice, not a peace treaty, leaving the two Koreas technically at war for over seven decades. The Korean Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), established by the armistice agreement, remains one of the most heavily fortified borders in the world. Subsequent decades saw periodic crises, including the axe murder incident in the Joint Security Area in 1976, North Korea's infiltration tunnels discovered in the 1970s, and naval clashes in the Yellow Sea in 1999, 2002, and 2009. The most serious recent escalation occurred in 2010 when North Korea shelled Yeonpyeong Island, killing four South Koreans, and sank the South Korean corvette Cheonan, killing 46 sailors. These incidents demonstrate North Korea's willingness to use limited military force, though not full-scale invasion since 1950. The historical pattern shows cycles of provocation and diplomacy, but the current abandonment of reunification rhetoric marks a distinct break from previous periods.

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