Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETClimate

US Tornadoes in September 2026

Name: US Tornadoes in September 2026
End: 2026-10-14T15:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$2.90K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

US Tornadoes in September 2026

Vol

$2.90K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $2.90K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $2.90K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will there be between 50 and 74 tornadoes in the US in September 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will there be between 50 and 74 tornadoes in the US in September 2026?	Poly	52%
Will there be between 25 and 49 tornadoes in the US in September 2026?	Poly	41%
Will there be under 25 tornadoes in the US in September 2026?	Poly	38%
Will there be between 75 and 124 tornadoes in the US in September 2026?	Poly	34%
Will there be 125 or more tornadoes in the US in September 2026?	Poly	6%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

52%

Top Probability

$2.90K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series). Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count. The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** US Tornadoes in September 2026
**Category:** Climate | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 14, 2026 (3 days left)
**Time Pressure:** High

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).

Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.

The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornado"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $316
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 9.19)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will there be under 25 tornadoes in the US in September 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 14, 2026): Vol $729
  DATA: [Yes: 37.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 62.2% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will there be between 25 and 49 tornadoes in the US in September 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 14, 2026): Vol $652
  DATA: [Yes: 40.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.1% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will there be between 50 and 74 tornadoes in the US in September 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 14, 2026): Vol $312
  DATA: [Yes: 52.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 48.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will there be between 75 and 124 tornadoes in the US in September 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 14, 2026): Vol $780
  DATA: [Yes: 34.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 65.9% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will there be 125 or more tornadoes in the US in September 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 14, 2026): Vol $432
  DATA: [Yes: 6.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.8% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETClimate