Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?
$3.51M
1
10
Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?
$3.51M
1
10
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source fo
This saved analysis is awaiting a background update. Its prices and claims may be outdated; compare them with the dated market data above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-13T06:00:05.665Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The event asks whether the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token will be greater than the threshold in each market title, one day after launch [1]. The rules define FDV as the total token supply multiplied by the token price [1]. A market resolves to "Yes" if the condition is met and to "No" otherwise [1]. The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch [1].
The rules define "1 day after launch" as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch [1]. The listed end time is 2028-01-01T05:00:00.000Z [1]. This is a provider field, not an announced launch or resolution date. The supplied evidence does not say whether a launch has occurred.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-13T06:00:05.665Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-10-13T06:08:17.855Z [1]. These are past values, not live quotes, and they are not executable prices.
The sample includes ten markets from one Polymarket event, with thresholds from $100M to $5B [1]. Yes prices decline as thresholds rise. The $100M market shows Yes at 0.984, the $1B market at 0.585, and the $5B market at 0.0445 [1]. Each market also lists a No price that sums to one with its Yes price [1]. The prices are quoted values, not verified probabilities. The supplied volume data does not measure liquidity or the number of traders.
All markets come from one event, so comparisons stay within a single contract family. Differences in price across thresholds reflect different questions and do not indicate an arbitrage opportunity.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why prices sit at these levels, and it contains no news or commentary about the token. The sample covers all ten saved markets for this event, and the record is not partial [1]. The sample warning notes, however, that this does not establish that the provider lists every possible outcome [1].
The snapshot reflects conditions at the observation time shown above. Prices, the launch status, and the listed end date may have changed since then, and this evidence does not cover those changes.
References
- Polymarket: Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?. Provider data observed 2026-10-13T06:00:05.665Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 13, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a Polymarket event asking whether the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of Variational's governance token will be above a stated threshold one day after launch [1]. The event is a set of related yes-or-no contracts, one for each threshold, rather than a single question. Each threshold market asks whether the same measurement clears a different dollar level, so the contracts are linked through one underlying rule. The resolution rule is straightforward. The market resolves to "Yes" if the FDV of Variational's governance token is greater than the value named in the market title one day after launch. Otherwise it resolves to "No" [1]. The title of each contract supplies the threshold, which in the saved event ranges from $100M up to $5B [1]. The contract depends on two definitions. First, a launch requires that the token be actively, publicly transferable and tradable [1]. A token that exists but cannot yet be publicly traded does not count as a launch under these rules. Second, the "1 day after launch" point is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch [1]. The timing is therefore tied to a specific clock time in Eastern Time rather than to a rolling 24 hours after the first trade. The listed end time on the provider page is 2028-01-01T05:00:00Z [1]. That date is a contract-rule end time. It is not an announced launch date, and the supplied material does not establish when Variational's token will launch.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a valuation outcome rather than a simple price. FDV is defined as the total token supply multiplied by the token price [1]. Because it multiplies price by the full supply, the measure reflects the value of all tokens, not only those currently circulating. Each threshold contract therefore asks whether the valuation implied by that calculation is above a particular level one day after launch [1]. For anyone reading the market prices, the contract is a way to see how the market's stated probabilities line up across valuation levels. Prices on these contracts are snapshots of market activity and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The gap between thresholds should be read as a difference between separate contracts with their own rules, not as a trading opportunity by itself.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-13 at 09:10 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does this market resolve on?
It resolves to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than the value in the market title one day after launch, and to "No" otherwise [1].
How is FDV calculated under these rules?
The FDV is determined by multiplying the total token supply by the token price [1].
What counts as a launch?
The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch [1].
When is the one-day mark?
"1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Saved price pairs
0
No exact saved pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
