Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Which bloc will win the most Knesset seats?

Total Volume

$31.38

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Which bloc will win the most Knesset seats?

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$31.38

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0.0%avg

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Volume DistributionTotal: $31.38

100%

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Will the bloc of Likud, Otzma Yehudit, RZP-Zehut, Amcha Yisrael, United Torah Judaism, and Shas hold the most seats in the Knesset after the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

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Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the bloc of Likud, Otzma Yehudit, RZP-Zehut, Amcha Yisrael, United Torah Judaism, and Shas hold the most seats in the Knesset after the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Kalshi	52%
Will the bloc of The Democrats, Yashar, Together, and Yisrael Beiteinu hold the most seats in the Knesset after the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Kalshi	48%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

52%

Top Probability

$31.38

Volume

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About This Event

On Oct 27, 2026 If the bloc X holds the most total seats in the Knesset following the 2026 Israeli legislative election, then the market resolves to Yes. Rankings are determined by total seat count after the election, including seats not contested. X seat is won when the candidate is declared elected by the electoral authority and either the challenge period has expired, legal challenges are resolved, or the member has taken their seat. Party affiliation is based on the party under which the ca

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which bloc will win the most Knesset seats?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Oct 27, 2026

If the bloc X holds the most total seats in the Knesset following the 2026 Israeli legislative election, then the market resolves to Yes. Rankings are determined by total seat count after the election, including seats not contested. X seat is won when the candidate is declared elected by the electoral authority and either the challenge period has expired, legal challenges are resolved, or the member has taken their seat. Party affiliation is based on the party under which the ca

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the bloc of Likud, Otzma Yehudit, RZP-Zehut, Amcha Yisrael, United Torah Judaism, and Shas holds the most total seats in the Knesset following the 2026 Israeli legislative election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Rankings are determined by total seat count after the election, i"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $31
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the bloc of Likud, Otzma Yehudit, RZP-Zehut, Amcha Yisrael, United Torah Judaism, and Shas hold the most seats in the Knesset after the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 52.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 48.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the bloc of The Democrats, Yashar, Together, and Yisrael Beiteinu hold the most seats in the Knesset after the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $31
  DATA: [Yes: 47.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 52.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Which bloc will win the most Knesset seats?

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KALSHI

Will the bloc of Likud, Otzma Yehudit, RZP-Zehut, Amcha Yisrael, United Torah Judaism, and Shas hold the most seats in the Knesset after the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 52.0¢No 48.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the bloc of Likud, Otzma Yehudit, RZP-Zehut, Amcha Yisrael, United Torah Judaism, and Shas hold the most seats in the Knesset after the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

If the bloc of Likud, Otzma Yehudit, RZP-Zehut, Amcha Yisrael, United Torah Judaism, and Shas holds the most total seats in the Knesset following the 2026 Israeli legislative election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Rankings are determined by total seat count after the election, i

KALSHI

Will the bloc of The Democrats, Yashar, Together, and Yisrael Beiteinu hold the most seats in the Knesset after the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 47.5¢No 52.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the bloc of The Democrats, Yashar, Together, and Yisrael Beiteinu hold the most seats in the Knesset after the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

If the bloc of The Democrats, Yashar, Together, and Yisrael Beiteinu holds the most total seats in the Knesset following the 2026 Israeli legislative election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Rankings are determined by total seat count after the election, including seats not contes

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/rr4kpc" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Which bloc will win the most Knesset seats?"></iframe>

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Will the bloc of Likud, Otzma Yehudit, RZP-Zehut, Amcha Yisrael, United Torah Judaism, and Shas hold the most seats in the Knesset after the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

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Events (1)

Which bloc will win the most Knesset seats?

Markets (2)

Will the bloc of Likud, Otzma Yehudit, RZP-Zehut, Amcha Yisrael, United Torah Judaism, and Shas hold the most seats in the Knesset after the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Will the bloc of Likud, Otzma Yehudit, RZP-Zehut, Amcha Yisrael, United Torah Judaism, and Shas hold the most seats in the Knesset after the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Will the bloc of The Democrats, Yashar, Together, and Yisrael Beiteinu hold the most seats in the Knesset after the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Will the bloc of The Democrats, Yashar, Together, and Yisrael Beiteinu hold the most seats in the Knesset after the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

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Will the bloc of Likud, Otzma Yehudit, RZP-Zehut, Amcha Yisrael, United Torah Judaism, and Shas hold the most seats in the Knesset after the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Which bloc will win the most Knesset seats?

Will the bloc of Likud, Otzma Yehudit, RZP-Zehut, Amcha Yisrael, United Torah Judaism, and Shas hold the most seats in the Knesset after the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Will the bloc of Likud, Otzma Yehudit, RZP-Zehut, Amcha Yisrael, United Torah Judaism, and Shas hold the most seats in the Knesset after the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Will the bloc of The Democrats, Yashar, Together, and Yisrael Beiteinu hold the most seats in the Knesset after the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Will the bloc of The Democrats, Yashar, Together, and Yisrael Beiteinu hold the most seats in the Knesset after the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

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