Events
GroupPOLYMARKET
Event GroupPOLYMARKETSports
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2
Total Volume
$1.40M
Events
1
Markets
1
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2
Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison
Polymarket
1
markets · $1.40M
Kalshi
0
markets · $0.00
Price Spread
0.0%avg
max 0.0%
Arbitrage
0
of 0 cross-platform
Volume DistributionTotal: $1.40M
100%
Polymarket leads
Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph
1 market tracked
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?
No data available
Single-Platform Markets(1)
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 50% |
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
50%
Top Probability
$1.40M
Volume
1
Markets
1
Platforms
About This Event
This market refers to the Dota 2 match between Aurora and Tundra Esports in the DreamLeague Stage 2, scheduled for February 23 at 11:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Aurora" if Aurora win the match against Tundra Esports. This market will resolve to "Tundra Esports" if Tundra Esports win the match against Aurora. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
What Prediction Markets Are Forecasting
Prediction markets are essentially treating the total number of kills in the first game of this match as a coin flip. The specific market asks whether the combined kill count for both teams will be over or under 30.5. With the current probability at 50% for the "Over," traders collectively see this as a perfectly balanced, unpredictable outcome. They believe there's a roughly 1 in 2 chance the game will be a bloody, high-kill affair versus a more cautious, low-kill game.
Why the Market Sees It This Way
This even split in trader opinion reflects the specific styles of these two teams and the high-stakes nature of DreamLeague. Aurora is known for an aggressive, fight-heavy approach that often leads to high kill counts. Tundra Esports, the reigning champions of The International 2022, historically favored a more controlled, strategic style that results in slower games with fewer kills. However, the current Dota 2 competitive environment rewards early aggression, pushing many teams, including Tundra, to adapt and fight more often. The market's 50/50 odds suggest traders are unsure which team's style will dictate the pace of this crucial opening game.
Key Dates and Events to Watch
The entire outcome hinges on the match itself, scheduled for February 23 at 11:30 AM ET. The first game of this best-of-three series is the direct subject of the prediction. Watch the draft phase closely. If both teams select heroes strong in the early and mid-game, it signals a high probability of frequent fights and a push over 30.5 kills. If one or both teams draft heroes that need more time to become powerful, the game will likely be slower, favoring the "Under" outcome. The result of Game 1 will also set the tactical tone for the rest of the series.
How Reliable Are These Predictions?
Markets on specific in-game events like kill totals are generally less reliable than those on match winners. While the collective wisdom of many bettors can be insightful, these "prop bet" markets are highly volatile and sensitive to in-game moments. A single large team fight or a surprise strategy can swing the total dramatically. For context, the average total kills in a professional Dota 2 game often sits in the mid-40s, making this line of 30.5 relatively low. This suggests the market is pricing in the possibility of a particularly cautious game, but its 50/50 state shows no strong consensus on whether that will actually happen.
Current Market Outlook
The prediction market for the Aurora vs Tundra Esports match is not directly pricing the match winner. Instead, the primary active market on Polymarket is focused on a specific in-game event: whether the total kills in Game 1 will exceed 30.5. This market is priced at 50% for "Yes" and 50% for "No," indicating complete uncertainty from traders. With $1.4 million in volume, this is a highly liquid market, showing significant betting interest in the stylistic outcome of the first game rather than just the final match result.
Key Factors Driving the Odds
The even 50/50 split on the kills prop reflects a genuine clash in team identities. Tundra Esports, the TI11 champion, is historically known for a controlled, strategic style that often results in lower-kill, objective-focused games. Their recent performances, however, have shown inconsistency. Aurora, a rising Southeast Asian squad, typically plays at a faster, more aggressive pace that can lead to higher kill counts. The market's uncertainty stems from which team will impose their game tempo. If Tundra dictates a slow pace, the under likely hits. If Aurora forces early fights and skirmishes, the game could easily surpass 30.5 kills.
What Could Change These Odds
The odds for this specific market are highly volatile and will move sharply based on the draft phase immediately before Game 1. Team compositions are the primary catalyst. A draft featuring multiple late-game, scaling heroes from both sides suggests a slower game, pushing odds toward the under. Conversely, lineups packed with early fighting heroes and gank potential would immediately shift probability toward the over. In-play markets could see rapid price swings with the first major teamfight outcome or a significant early gold lead. The resolution of this prop market will also provide the first concrete data point for traders assessing likely winners in subsequent match-winner markets.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.