Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?
PM $73.2K
1
11
Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?
PM $73.2K
1
11
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Nigeria at 94.5%.
Polymarket
- Nigeria94.5%
- South Sudan39.5%
- Somalia37%
- Republic of the Congo22.5%
- Rwanda21.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $73.2K
Reported volume · provider units
11
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed case of Ebola in the territory of the specified country reported between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any active laboratory-confirmed, or otherwise officially confirmed, Ebola infection identified within the territory of the specified country will qualify, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or testing occurred. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T21:00:06.045Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The event asks which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026. Each country has its own Yes or No contract. According to the rules, the market "will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed case of Ebola in the territory of the specified country reported between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET" [1]. The rules also state that "any active laboratory-confirmed, or otherwise officially confirmed, Ebola infection identified within the territory of the specified country will qualify, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or testing occurred" [1]. Resolution relies mainly on "official information from the relevant national and international health authorities; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice" [1]. The listed end time is 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z, which matches the 11:59 PM ET wording in the rules [1]. That is a closing time for trading and resolution, not an announced event date.
Reading the snapshot
The saved data was observed at 2026-10-19T21:00:06 UTC and retrieved at 2026-10-20T00:04:07 UTC [1]. It is a record from the previous evening, not a live view. All 11 markets in this event are included, and the event is not partial [1]. The source notes that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1].
Yes prices in the snapshot range from 0.085 for Ethiopia to 0.48 for Nigeria. Nigeria has the highest Yes price, and Somalia (0.375), South Sudan (0.365), and the Republic of the Congo (0.25) follow [1]. These are quoted snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. Each contract's Yes and No prices sum to 1 in the saved data, so a Yes price reflects the same contract's No side. Trading volume is not included in the excerpt, so this snapshot cannot show liquidity or how many traders took part.
Because each country is a separate contract, the prices should not be compared as a single field or ranked against unrelated events. A difference between two contracts does not by itself show an arbitrage opportunity.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why any price is where it is. It does not include news about Ebola, current case counts, or any forecast accuracy record. It also does not show what happened after the snapshot was retrieved, so the Yes prices may have changed. Readers should check the live market and the official resolution sources before relying on any of these figures.
References
- Polymarket: Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T21:00:06.045Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 20, 2026 UTCOverview
PredictPedia tracks a multi-market event on Polymarket asking which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026 [1]. Each market in the event asks about a single country, such as Nigeria, Somalia, or Canada, and the Yes or No prices on each market reflect the trading activity captured in a snapshot. These prices are not executable quotes and should not be read as verified probabilities of an outbreak reaching a given country [1]. The contract asks whether a confirmed Ebola case is identified within the territory of the named country. Ebola, also called Ebola virus disease (EVD) or Ebola hemorrhagic fever, is a zoonotic viral hemorrhagic fever in humans and other primates, caused by four of the six known ebolaviruses. Symptoms typically begin between two days and three weeks after infection and often start with fever, sore throat, muscle pain, and headaches [3]. Outbreaks have had a reported mortality rate between 25 and 90 percent, averaging about 50 percent, and the viral species involved and the timing of treatment play a critical role in prognosis [3]. The saved event includes 11 markets, and all saved markets for the event are included in this snapshot. The provider event is not a complete list of every country that could possibly report a case, so the absence of a country from this sample does not mean that country has a lower or higher chance of a case [1].
Historical Context
The source material describes a 2026 outbreak that began in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo and extended to neighbouring countries, including Uganda. According to the Wikipedia article on the epidemic, initial cases were reported on 14 May 2026 in Ituri Province, and it was the 17th Ebola outbreak in the DRC, beginning five months after the end of the previous one. Early infections were theorised to have occurred in January or February 2026 in the town of Mongbwalu [2]. The same article states that by early August it had become the fastest growing Ebola outbreak on record and the second largest [2]. This material is historical background drawn from a Wikipedia page retrieved on 19 October 2026. It does not by itself establish the current case count, the current geographic spread, or the status of any country in the market list.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether a confirmed Ebola case is identified in the named country during a defined reporting window. Under the listed rules, a market resolves Yes if a confirmed case is reported between market creation and 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise it resolves No [1]. The rules state that the primary resolution sources are official information from relevant national and international health authorities, and that an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice [1]. Because the rules set a reporting window and a listed end time, the dates in the rules describe how the contract is structured and are not announcements of expected events [1]. For people following outbreak news, the contract is a way to express a view on spread between countries, relative to the official reporting standard in the rules. The prices in the saved snapshot show how traders priced each country at one observation time, which is separate from when the source was retrieved and from when the contract closes [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 21:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What counts as a qualifying case for these markets?
The rules say that any active laboratory-confirmed, or otherwise officially confirmed, Ebola infection identified within the territory of the specified country qualifies. Where the exposure, symptom onset, or testing occurred does not matter [1].
Which sources decide the outcome?
The primary resolution sources are official information from the relevant national and international health authorities. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting is also sufficient under the listed rules [1].
What is the reporting window?
A case must be reported between market creation and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The listed end time in the provider data is 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z [1].
Do the prices show the chance of an Ebola case in each country?
No. The prices are snapshots from a provider observation and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities [1]. Trading volume also does not measure liquidity or the number of traders.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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