GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETCulture

Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?

Name: Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?
End: 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$37.84K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?

Vol

$37.84K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $37.84K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $37.84K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

12 markets tracked

Will South Sudan have an Ebola case in 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(12)

Market	Platform	Price
Will South Sudan have an Ebola case in 2026?	Poly	59%
Will Ethiopia have an Ebola case in 2026?	Poly	55%
Will Burundi have an Ebola case in 2026?	Poly	52%
Will Nigeria have an Ebola case in 2026?	Poly	52%
Will India have an Ebola case in 2026?	Poly	46%
Will Somalia have an Ebola case in 2026?	Poly	35%
Will the Republic of the Congo have an Ebola case in 2026?	Poly	30%
Will Rwanda have an Ebola case in 2026?	Poly	24%
Will Canada have an Ebola case in 2026?	Poly	24%
Will Kenya have an Ebola case in 2026?	Poly	24%
Will the United States have an Ebola case in 2026?	Poly	21%
Will China have an Ebola case in 2026?	Poly	16%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

59%

Top Probability

$37.84K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed case of Ebola in the territory of the specified country reported between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any active laboratory-confirmed, or otherwise officially confirmed, Ebola infection identified within the territory of the specified country will qualify, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or testing occurred. The primary resolution sources for this market wi

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?
**Category:** Culture | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 1, 2027 (118 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed case of Ebola in the territory of the specified country reported between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any active laboratory-confirmed, or otherwise officially confirmed, Ebola infection identified within the territory of the specified country will qualify, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or testing occurred.

The primary resolution sources for this market wi

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed case of Ebola in the territory of the specified country reported between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any active laboratory-confirmed, or otherwise officially confirmed, Ebo"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $35.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $2.9K
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 12.56)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will South Sudan have an Ebola case in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $3.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 59.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 41.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Rwanda have an Ebola case in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $2.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 24.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Burundi have an Ebola case in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $202
  DATA: [Yes: 52.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 48.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the United States have an Ebola case in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $10.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 21.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Canada have an Ebola case in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $2.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 23.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Kenya have an Ebola case in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $235
  DATA: [Yes: 23.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will India have an Ebola case in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $737
  DATA: [Yes: 45.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the Republic of the Congo have an Ebola case in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $12.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 29.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Nigeria have an Ebola case in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $25
  DATA: [Yes: 51.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 48.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Ethiopia have an Ebola case in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $107
  DATA: [Yes: 55.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 45.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Somalia have an Ebola case in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $71
  DATA: [Yes: 34.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 65.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will China have an Ebola case in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $3.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETCulture