Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

30-year mortgage rate at the end of 2026

Total Volume

$181.72

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

30-year mortgage rate at the end of 2026

Vol

$181.72

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $181.72

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $181.72

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

13 markets tracked

Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 6.00%?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(13)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 6.00%?	Kalshi	98%
Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 6.25%?	Kalshi	97%
Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 6.50%?	Kalshi	96%
Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 6.75%?	Kalshi	85%
Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 7.25%?	Kalshi	76%
Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 7.75%?	Kalshi	50%
Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 7.50%?	Kalshi	50%
Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 7.00%?	Kalshi	50%
Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 8.25%?	Kalshi	5%
Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 8.00%?	Kalshi	5%
Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 8.50%?	Kalshi	4%
Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 9.00%?	Kalshi	2%
Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 8.75%?	Kalshi	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

98%

Top Probability

$181.72

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

2026 If the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, PMMS, 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage reported in Freddie Mac’s final PMMS release published during 2026 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The year-end rate is the weekly 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average in the final PMMS release published during calendar year 2026. Only the initially published value from that release will be used; subsequent revisions will not affect resolution. Earlier weekly readings do not determine the outcom

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** 30-year mortgage rate at the end of 2026
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** 2026

If the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, PMMS, 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage reported in Freddie Mac’s final PMMS release published during 2026 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The year-end rate is the weekly 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average in the final PMMS release published during calendar year 2026. Only the initially published value from that release will be used; subsequent revisions will not affect resolution. Earlier weekly readings do not determine the outcom

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage reported in Freddie Mac’s final PMMS release published during 2026 is above 9.00%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The year-end rate is the weekly 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average in the final P"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $182
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 9.00%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 8.75%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 8.50%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 8.25%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 8.00%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $182
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 7.75%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 7.50%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 7.25%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 76.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 24.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 7.00%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 6.75%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 85.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 15.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 6.50%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 96.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 6.25%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 96.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 6.00%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 98.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

30-year mortgage rate at the end of 2026

Volume$181.72

Markets13

13 of 13

Sort:

KALSHI

Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 6.00%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 98.0¢No 2.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 6.00%?

If the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage reported in Freddie Mac’s final PMMS release published during 2026 is above 6.00%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The year-end rate is the weekly 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average in the final P

KALSHI

Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 6.25%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 96.5¢No 3.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 6.25%?

If the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage reported in Freddie Mac’s final PMMS release published during 2026 is above 6.25%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The year-end rate is the weekly 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average in the final P

KALSHI

Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 6.50%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 96.0¢No 4.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 6.50%?

If the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage reported in Freddie Mac’s final PMMS release published during 2026 is above 6.50%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The year-end rate is the weekly 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average in the final P

KALSHI

Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 6.75%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 85.0¢No 15.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 6.75%?

If the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage reported in Freddie Mac’s final PMMS release published during 2026 is above 6.75%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The year-end rate is the weekly 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average in the final P

KALSHI

Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 7.25%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 76.0¢No 24.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 7.25%?

If the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage reported in Freddie Mac’s final PMMS release published during 2026 is above 7.25%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The year-end rate is the weekly 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average in the final P

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48¢

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30-year mortgage rate at the end of 2026

30-year mortgage rate at the end of 2026

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Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 6.00%?

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Educational Context

Events (1)

30-year mortgage rate at the end of 2026

Markets (13)

Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 6.00%?

Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 6.00%?

Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 6.25%?

Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 6.25%?

Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 6.50%?

Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 6.50%?

Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 6.75%?

Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 6.75%?

Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 7.25%?

Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 7.25%?

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Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 6.00%?

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30-year mortgage rate at the end of 2026

Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 6.00%?

Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 6.00%?

Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 6.25%?

Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 6.25%?

Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 6.50%?

Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 6.50%?

Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 6.75%?

Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 6.75%?

Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 7.25%?

Will the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate at the end of 2026 be above 7.25%?

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