GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

US personal saving rate at year-end 2026

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US personal saving rate at year-end 2026

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5 markets tracked

Will US personal saving rate for 2026 be between 2.5% and 2.9%?

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Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will US personal saving rate for 2026 be between 2.5% and 2.9%?	Kalshi	26%
Will US personal saving rate for 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.4%?	Kalshi	25%
Will US personal saving rate for 2026 be between 3.5% and 3.9%?	Kalshi	20%
Will US personal saving rate for 2026 be at least 4.0%?	Kalshi	17%
Will US personal saving rate for 2026 be below 2.5%?	Kalshi	15%

AI Analysis

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About This Event

2026 If the US personal saving rate for 2026 is between X and Y as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by Federal Reserve Economic Data, then the market resolves to Yes. For purposes of this market, “personal saving rate” refers to FRED series PSAVERT, Personal Saving Rate, for December 2026. This value is reported as a percent, seasonally adjusted annual rate, and is sourced by FRED from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. This market will use the first value published by Fed

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** US personal saving rate at year-end 2026
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** 2026

If the US personal saving rate for 2026 is between X and Y as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by Federal Reserve Economic Data, then the market resolves to Yes. For purposes of this market, “personal saving rate” refers to FRED series PSAVERT, Personal Saving Rate, for December 2026. This value is reported as a percent, seasonally adjusted annual rate, and is sourced by FRED from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. This market will use the first value published by Fed

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the US personal saving rate for 2026 is at least 4.0%, as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by Federal Reserve Economic Data, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For purposes of this market, “personal saving rate” refers to FRED series PSAVERT, Personal Saving Rate"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will US personal saving rate for 2026 be at least 4.0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 5, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will US personal saving rate for 2026 be below 2.5%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 5, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 14.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will US personal saving rate for 2026 be between 3.5% and 3.9%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 5, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 19.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will US personal saving rate for 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.4%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 5, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will US personal saving rate for 2026 be between 2.5% and 2.9%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 5, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 25.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

US personal saving rate at year-end 2026

Volume$0.00

Markets5

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KALSHI

Will US personal saving rate for 2026 be between 2.5% and 2.9%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 25.5¢No 74.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will US personal saving rate for 2026 be between 2.5% and 2.9%?

If the US personal saving rate for 2026 is between 2.5% and 2.9%, as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by Federal Reserve Economic Data, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For purposes of this market, “personal saving rate” refers to FRED series PSAVERT, Personal Sav

KALSHI

Will US personal saving rate for 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.4%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 24.5¢No 75.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will US personal saving rate for 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.4%?

If the US personal saving rate for 2026 is between 3.0% and 3.4%, as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by Federal Reserve Economic Data, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For purposes of this market, “personal saving rate” refers to FRED series PSAVERT, Personal Sav

KALSHI

Will US personal saving rate for 2026 be between 3.5% and 3.9%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 19.5¢No 80.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will US personal saving rate for 2026 be between 3.5% and 3.9%?

If the US personal saving rate for 2026 is between 3.5% and 3.9%, as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by Federal Reserve Economic Data, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For purposes of this market, “personal saving rate” refers to FRED series PSAVERT, Personal Sav

KALSHI

Will US personal saving rate for 2026 be at least 4.0%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 16.5¢No 83.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will US personal saving rate for 2026 be at least 4.0%?

If the US personal saving rate for 2026 is at least 4.0%, as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by Federal Reserve Economic Data, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For purposes of this market, “personal saving rate” refers to FRED series PSAVERT, Personal Saving Rate

KALSHI

Will US personal saving rate for 2026 be below 2.5%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 14.5¢No 85.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will US personal saving rate for 2026 be below 2.5%?

If the US personal saving rate for 2026 is below 2.5%, as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by Federal Reserve Economic Data, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For purposes of this market, “personal saving rate” refers to FRED series PSAVERT, Personal Saving Rate, f

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/rvLsJ3" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="US personal saving rate at year-end 2026"></iframe>

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US personal saving rate at year-end 2026

US personal saving rate at year-end 2026

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Will US personal saving rate for 2026 be between 2.5% and 2.9%?

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Events (1)

US personal saving rate at year-end 2026

Markets (5)

Will US personal saving rate for 2026 be between 2.5% and 2.9%?

Will US personal saving rate for 2026 be between 2.5% and 2.9%?

Will US personal saving rate for 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.4%?

Will US personal saving rate for 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.4%?

Will US personal saving rate for 2026 be between 3.5% and 3.9%?

Will US personal saving rate for 2026 be between 3.5% and 3.9%?

Will US personal saving rate for 2026 be at least 4.0%?

Will US personal saving rate for 2026 be at least 4.0%?

Will US personal saving rate for 2026 be below 2.5%?

Will US personal saving rate for 2026 be below 2.5%?

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Will US personal saving rate for 2026 be between 2.5% and 2.9%?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

US personal saving rate at year-end 2026

Will US personal saving rate for 2026 be between 2.5% and 2.9%?

Will US personal saving rate for 2026 be between 2.5% and 2.9%?

Will US personal saving rate for 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.4%?

Will US personal saving rate for 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.4%?

Will US personal saving rate for 2026 be between 3.5% and 3.9%?

Will US personal saving rate for 2026 be between 3.5% and 3.9%?

Will US personal saving rate for 2026 be at least 4.0%?

Will US personal saving rate for 2026 be at least 4.0%?

Will US personal saving rate for 2026 be below 2.5%?

Will US personal saving rate for 2026 be below 2.5%?

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