Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET
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Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 30, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-30T03:00:06.332Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single short-window contract titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET" [1]. According to the saved rules, it resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, over the window in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1].
The resolution source is the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules state that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. Readers should not compare this contract with a spot price on another venue, because the rules exclude those sources.
The listed end time is 2026-10-30T17:30:00.000Z [1]. That listed time is the closing reference in the rules. It is not a statement about when the contract resolved.
Reading the snapshot
The saved provider observation is from 2026-10-30T03:00:06Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-30T04:39:08Z [1]. The prices below describe that observation only.
At observation, the "Up" outcome was priced at 0.505 and the "Down" outcome at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The two prices sum to 1.00 in this record, but the snapshot does not show bid and ask depth, fees, or the price at any later moment.
The sample covers one market from one provider event. The coverage record reports one total market, one included, and no partial sample [1]. Because only these two outcomes exist in the saved market, there is no omitted outcome to compare, and no cross-platform or cross-event ranking applies.
The record does not show volume-based liquidity or the number of traders, so the snapshot should not be read as a measure of how many people hold either view.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the prices were where they were at observation. It also does not show how the prices changed after 03:00 UTC, what the TWAP value was during the window, or how the contract resolved. The retrieved excerpt ends at the listed end time and reports status "active" only as of the saved observation [1].
Anyone using this snapshot should check the current provider page and the Chainlink data stream directly, and should treat the 0.505 and 0.495 figures as a historical record of one observation.
References
- Polymarket: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-30T03:00:06.332Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 30, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a short-interval price contract on Polymarket for Bitcoin, titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET" and listed in the Crypto category [1]. The contract asks whether Bitcoin's price moves up or down over a five-minute window. Its rules state that it resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The resolution source is Chainlink, specifically its BTC/USD TWAP data stream [1]. The rules say the market concerns the price in that Chainlink data stream for the BTC/USD pair, and not any other data source or spot market [1]. This matters because a Bitcoin price on another exchange or index could differ from the Chainlink series, and the contract would not resolve on that difference. The listed end time for this event is 2026-10-30T17:30:00.000Z [1]. The source describes the contract's status as active at the time it was saved [1]. Its observation and retrieval times are recorded separately in the dated snapshot that accompanies this article, so the contract's status described here reflects that earlier snapshot and not the situation at the time you read this.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP over a defined five-minute window ends at or above its value at the start of that window [1]. Because it uses an average over the window rather than a single price at one moment, the outcome depends on how the price moved across the whole interval, and the rule compares the average against the starting price [1]. The fixed Chainlink data stream named in the rules is the reference for settlement, so the contract's result is tied to that specific feed [1]. Readers comparing this contract with other Bitcoin markets should check that each one names the same resolution source and time window, since the rules differ by contract.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-30 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What price source decides how this contract resolves?
The contract resolves using the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules state it is not based on other sources or spot markets [1].
What counts as an "Up" result?
According to the rules, the market resolves to "Up" if the TWAP over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range [1].
What happens if the TWAP is lower than the starting price?
In that case the contract resolves to "Down" under the stated rules [1].
When does this contract end?
The listed end time is 2026-10-30T17:30:00.000Z [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.