Name: Who will the "Finding Satoshi" documentary identify as Satoshi?
End: 2026-05-01T04:00:00.000Z

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Who will the "Finding Satoshi" documentary identify as Satoshi? | PredictPedia

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $84.36K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $84.36K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

11 markets tracked

Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Hal Finney as Satoshi?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Hal Finney as Satoshi?	Poly	73%
Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Len Sassaman as Satoshi?	Poly	10%
Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Adam Back as Satoshi?	Poly	3%
Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Craig Wright as Satoshi?	Poly	2%
Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Nick Szabo as Satoshi?	Poly	2%
Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Paul Le Roux as Satoshi?	Poly	2%
Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Wei Dai as Satoshi?	Poly	0%
Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Gavin Andresen as Satoshi?	Poly	0%
Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Bram Cohen as Satoshi?	Poly	0%
Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Elon Musk as Satoshi?	Poly	0%
Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Dorian Nakamoto as Satoshi?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

73%

Top Probability

$84.36K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to the individual identified as the primary creator of Bitcoin by the “Finding Satoshi” documentary expected to release on April 22 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVxAwomug08). If the documentary identifies multiple individuals, this market will resolve according to the individual which the documentary most directly depicts, or presents as most likely to be responsible for creating Bitcoin. If multiple individuals are presented as equally likely in the conclusion of

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, April 18, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Who will the "Finding Satoshi" documentary identify as Satoshi?
**Category:** Crypto | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 1, 2026 (13 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve to the individual identified as the primary creator of Bitcoin by the “Finding Satoshi” documentary expected to release on April 22 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVxAwomug08).

If the documentary identifies multiple individuals, this market will resolve according to the individual which the documentary most directly depicts, or presents as most likely to be responsible for creating Bitcoin.

If multiple individuals are presented as equally likely in the conclusion of 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to the individual identified as the primary creator of Bitcoin by the “Finding Satoshi” documentary expected to release on April 22 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVxAwomug08).

If the documentary identifies multiple individuals, this market will resolve according to the i"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $84.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $114.4K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.74)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Nick Szabo as Satoshi?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $4.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Elon Musk as Satoshi?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $4.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Adam Back as Satoshi?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $28.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.8% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Len Sassaman as Satoshi?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $7.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Dorian Nakamoto as Satoshi?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $2.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Gavin Andresen as Satoshi?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $2.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Bram Cohen as Satoshi?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Craig Wright as Satoshi?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $6.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.9% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Hal Finney as Satoshi?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $22.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 72.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 27.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Wei Dai as Satoshi?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $1.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Paul Le Roux as Satoshi?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.3% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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