Event GroupPOLYMARKETCrypto
Space FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Total Volume
$13.48K
Events
1
Markets
8
Space FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Vol
$13.48K
|
Events
1
|
Markets
8
$13.48K
1
8
$13.48K
1
8
8 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 90% |
| Poly | 55% |
| Poly | 42% |
| Poly | 26% |
| Poly | 17% |
| Poly | 17% |
| Poly | 7% |
| Poly | 6% |
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Space's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this
Prediction markets are pricing in near-certainty that Space's governance token will launch with a fully diluted valuation (FDV) exceeding $40 million. On Polymarket, the "Yes" outcome is trading at 92 cents, implying a 92% probability. This high confidence suggests traders view a sub-$40 million FDV at launch as a remote possibility. The market has attracted $13,000 in volume, but liquidity remains thin across its eight related markets, indicating a niche but confident betting pool. The resolution date is set for January 1, 2027, allowing over 350 days for the project's launch to occur.
The extreme confidence is primarily driven by the current valuation environment for major crypto projects and the specific hype surrounding the Space protocol. Space is a decentralized physical infrastructure network (DePIN) project focused on decentralized storage, a sector where successful token launches often command high valuations from the outset. Comparable projects have recently launched with FDVs in the hundreds of millions, making a $40 million threshold appear modest by comparison. Furthermore, the project's backers and early community traction, common precursors to a heavily marketed token generation event, are leading traders to price in a successful, high-profile launch.
The primary risk to the current consensus is a severe, prolonged downturn in the broader cryptocurrency market that could depress all new token valuations below recent historical benchmarks. A more specific risk would be a significant delay or fundamental technical failure of the Space protocol before launch, damaging investor confidence. The odds could also shift if concrete details emerge suggesting a conservative, low-float token distribution model aimed at a lower initial FDV. Any major negative news regarding the project's team, technology, or regulatory standing before the launch would likely cause the "Yes" probability to drop significantly from its current 92% level.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic focuses on whether the fully diluted valuation (FDV) of Space's governance token will exceed a specified threshold one day after its public launch. Space is a decentralized social media protocol built on the Farcaster network, aiming to create a more open and user-controlled alternative to traditional social platforms. The market resolves based on whether Space's FDV, calculated as total token supply multiplied by token price at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch, surpasses the predetermined value. This specific timing creates a focused window for evaluating initial market reception and valuation dynamics. The requirement that tokens be actively and publicly transferable ensures the launch represents genuine market availability rather than theoretical distribution. Interest in this market stems from several factors, including the growing competition in decentralized social media, the track record of Farcaster-based projects, and broader curiosity about whether new social tokens can achieve significant valuations in a crowded crypto landscape. Participants are essentially betting on whether Space can capture meaningful market attention and valuation immediately upon entering public markets, which serves as an indicator of perceived potential versus existing alternatives like Friend.tech, Lens Protocol, and others in the social finance (SocialFi) sector.
The concept of tokenizing social media influence gained significant traction in 2023 with the launch of Friend.tech, which achieved a peak fully diluted valuation exceeding $100 million shortly after its release. This event, occurring in August 2023, demonstrated that social applications could command substantial market valuations based on creator-fan relationships and exclusive content access. Friend.tech's rapid rise and subsequent volatility established a precedent for measuring success in the SocialFi sector through immediate post-launch FDV metrics. Earlier in 2022, the Lens Protocol launched its social graph with a focus on composability, though it did not feature a native token at launch, creating an open question about how social protocols should best implement tokenomics. The Farcaster network itself, launched in 2020, took a gradual approach to decentralization, with its Warpcast client gaining steady adoption throughout 2023 and early 2024, setting the stage for more specialized applications like Space to emerge. These historical launches create direct comparables for evaluating whether Space's FDV can meet or exceed specific thresholds, as traders analyze whether it can capture momentum similar to Friend.tech or follow a more gradual growth pattern like earlier social tokens.
The outcome of this prediction market serves as a real-time gauge of market confidence in a new model for social media ownership and monetization. If Space achieves a high FDV quickly, it signals investor belief that decentralized, token-based social platforms can create sustainable economic models outside traditional advertising, potentially accelerating investment and development in the entire SocialFi category. Conversely, a lower valuation could indicate market saturation or skepticism about the long-term utility of social tokens, possibly cooling investment in similar projects. This matters for creators and users because it influences which platforms receive development resources and community attention, shaping the future landscape of online interaction. The valuation also tests whether social applications can generate meaningful value capture for token holders beyond speculative trading, which is crucial for the viability of web3 social networks as more than niche experiments.
As of early 2024, Space is in active development on the Farcaster network, with its lead developer regularly sharing progress updates. The exact launch date for its governance token has not been publicly announced, creating anticipation within the Farcaster community. Pre-launch discussions focus on the token's potential utility within the Space application, its distribution mechanism, and how it will differentiate from other social tokens. The broader SocialFi sector remains active, with established players like Friend.tech continuing to iterate, keeping competitive pressure on new entrants. Market conditions for crypto launches have shown variability, influencing projections about initial liquidity and trading volume for Space's token.
Fully Diluted Valuation is a metric that calculates a cryptocurrency's total market value if all possible tokens in its maximum supply were in circulation. It is determined by multiplying the current token price by the total token supply defined in the project's tokenomics, providing a theoretical ceiling for the network's market capitalization.
The token price will be sourced from major decentralized or centralized exchanges where the token is actively trading, typically using a volume-weighted average price (VWAP) or a price from a designated liquidity pool. The specific resolution source will be defined prior to market closure to ensure transparency and prevent manipulation.
Prediction markets typically have predefined resolution criteria for such scenarios. If the token launch does not occur by a specified deadline or is officially canceled, the market would likely resolve to 'No' or according to specific platform rules outlined in the market's description before trading begins.
Market capitalization uses the current circulating supply of tokens, while FDV uses the maximum total supply. For newly launched tokens with low circulating supply initially, FDV can be much higher than market cap, highlighting future inflation potential as more tokens enter circulation according to the emission schedule.
Farcaster is a decentralized social network protocol that allows users to control their identity and data. It enables developers to build independent social applications, like Space, on a shared social graph, creating interoperability while avoiding platform lock-in that characterizes traditional social media.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
No related news found
Share your predictions and analysis with other traders. Coming soon!
Add this market to your website
<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/rzazuH" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Space FDV above ___ one day after launch?"></iframe>