GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Who will advance from the WA-04 primary?

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Who will advance from the WA-04 primary?

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

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Kalshi

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Price Spread

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6 markets tracked

Who will win the WA-4 primary? (Amanda McKinney)

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Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Who will win the WA-4 primary? (Amanda McKinney)	Kalshi	87%
Who will win the WA-4 primary? (John Duresky)	Kalshi	70%
Who will win the WA-4 primary? (Matt Boehnke)	Kalshi	36%
Who will win the WA-4 primary? (Jerrod Sessler)	Kalshi	10%
Who will win the WA-4 primary? (Wesley Meier)	Kalshi	2%
Who will win the WA-4 primary? (Dan Newhouse)	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

87%

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$0.00

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About This Event

In 2026 If X advances to the general election in WA-4 in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Who will advance from the WA-04 primary?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If X advances to the general election in WA-4 in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Matt Boehnke advances to the general election in WA-4 in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Who will win the WA-4 primary? (Matt Boehnke)
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 36.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Who will win the WA-4 primary? (Amanda McKinney)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 87.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 12.8% (0.0%)]

### 3. Who will win the WA-4 primary? (Wesley Meier)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Who will win the WA-4 primary? (John Duresky)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 69.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 30.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Who will win the WA-4 primary? (Jerrod Sessler)
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.8% (0.0%)]

### 6. Who will win the WA-4 primary? (Dan Newhouse)
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Who will advance from the WA-04 primary?

Volume$0.00

Markets6

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KALSHI

Who will win the WA-4 primary? (Amanda McKinney)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 87.2¢No 12.8¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will win the WA-4 primary? (Amanda McKinney)

If Amanda McKinney advances to the general election in WA-4 in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Who will win the WA-4 primary? (John Duresky)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 69.5¢No 30.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will win the WA-4 primary? (John Duresky)

If John Duresky advances to the general election in WA-4 in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Who will win the WA-4 primary? (Matt Boehnke)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 36.0¢No 64.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will win the WA-4 primary? (Matt Boehnke)

If Matt Boehnke advances to the general election in WA-4 in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Who will win the WA-4 primary? (Jerrod Sessler)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 10.2¢No 89.8¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will win the WA-4 primary? (Jerrod Sessler)

If Jerrod Sessler advances to the general election in WA-4 in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Who will win the WA-4 primary? (Wesley Meier)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 1.5¢No 98.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will win the WA-4 primary? (Wesley Meier)

If Wesley Meier advances to the general election in WA-4 in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

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34¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/s2p6GU" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Who will advance from the WA-04 primary?"></iframe>

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Who will advance from the WA-04 primary?

Who will advance from the WA-04 primary?

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Who will win the WA-4 primary? (Amanda McKinney)

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

Who will advance from the WA-04 primary?

Markets (6)

Who will win the WA-4 primary? (Amanda McKinney)

Who will win the WA-4 primary? (Amanda McKinney)

Who will win the WA-4 primary? (John Duresky)

Who will win the WA-4 primary? (John Duresky)

Who will win the WA-4 primary? (Matt Boehnke)

Who will win the WA-4 primary? (Matt Boehnke)

Who will win the WA-4 primary? (Jerrod Sessler)

Who will win the WA-4 primary? (Jerrod Sessler)

Who will win the WA-4 primary? (Wesley Meier)

Who will win the WA-4 primary? (Wesley Meier)

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Who will win the WA-4 primary? (Amanda McKinney)

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Who will advance from the WA-04 primary?

Who will win the WA-4 primary? (Amanda McKinney)

Who will win the WA-4 primary? (Amanda McKinney)

Who will win the WA-4 primary? (John Duresky)

Who will win the WA-4 primary? (John Duresky)

Who will win the WA-4 primary? (Matt Boehnke)

Who will win the WA-4 primary? (Matt Boehnke)

Who will win the WA-4 primary? (Jerrod Sessler)

Who will win the WA-4 primary? (Jerrod Sessler)

Who will win the WA-4 primary? (Wesley Meier)

Who will win the WA-4 primary? (Wesley Meier)

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