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$4.33M
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$4.33M
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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
What price will Bitcoin hit January 26-1?
Prediction markets show traders collectively believe Bitcoin is very likely to be worth at least $75,000 by the end of 2026. The current probability across major platforms is about 86%, which you can think of as roughly a 6 in 7 chance. This is a high level of confidence. While there are many specific price targets being traded, the strong consensus around this $75,000 threshold is a clear signal of bullish long-term sentiment.
Two main factors are driving this optimism. First, the broader adoption of Bitcoin as a regulated investment product has created a new source of steady demand. The approval of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024 allowed traditional finance firms and retirement accounts to buy Bitcoin easily. This institutional flow is seen as a durable support for the price.
Second, Bitcoin’s scheduled supply changes play a role. The "halving" event in April 2024 cut the rate of new Bitcoin creation in half. Historically, the year following a halving has seen significant price increases, as reduced new supply meets steady or growing demand. Traders are betting this historical pattern, combined with new ETF demand, will push prices higher over the next two years.
The most direct factor is the performance of the spot Bitcoin ETFs. Watch for monthly reports on their net inflows or outflows. Sustained inflows would support the bullish case.
Broader economic events will also influence the price. The direction of interest rates set by the U.S. Federal Reserve is critical. If the Fed cuts rates, it could make riskier assets like Bitcoin more attractive to investors. Key inflation reports and Fed meeting decisions in late 2024 and 2025 will be important signals.
Finally, watch for regulatory developments in major economies. Clear, supportive rules could boost confidence, while harsh restrictions could create uncertainty.
Prediction markets have a mixed but interesting record on long-term crypto prices. They are often better at capturing the direction and strength of crowd sentiment than predicting exact prices years in advance. For example, markets correctly signaled strong confidence in the approval of Bitcoin ETFs before they were officially announced.
The main limitation here is time. A lot can change in two years in the volatile crypto space. These odds reflect what informed traders believe today, but they can and will shift with new information. The high trading volume on this question, over $24 million, suggests the current odds are based on significant consideration, not just speculation.
Prediction markets show high confidence that Bitcoin will reach $75,000 before 2027. On Kalshi, the "Yes" contract trades at 86 cents, implying an 86% probability. The same contract on Polymarket trades at 77 cents, a 77% probability. The 9-point spread between platforms is significant. An 86% chance means traders see this outcome as very likely, but not a guarantee. The high volume, over $24 million, confirms this is a major consensus view.
Two primary forces support the bullish pricing. First, institutional adoption through spot Bitcoin ETFs has created a new, sustained source of demand. Since their January 2024 launch, these funds have consistently bought more Bitcoin than miners produce daily. This structural shift supports higher baseline prices. Second, historical post-halving cycles provide a template. The Bitcoin halving in April 2024 reduced new supply. Past cycles show a pattern where the most significant price appreciation occurs 12-18 months after the halving, a window that closes in late 2026. Traders are betting this pattern will repeat.
The market's high confidence faces clear risks. A major catalyst for a price drop would be aggressive, sustained regulatory action from the US government, such as a crackdown on ETF approvals or on-chain privacy. Macroeconomic conditions are another variable. If the Federal Reserve resumes significant interest rate hikes to combat inflation in 2025, it would pressure all risk assets, including crypto. Finally, the historical cycle pattern is not a law. If Bitcoin fails to make new highs in the expected post-halving period, the current bullish sentiment could unravel quickly.
The 86% price on Kalshi versus 77% on Polymarket is a notable 9% arbitrage opportunity. This spread likely exists for two reasons. Kalshi is a regulated US exchange accessible to retail traders, whose sentiment may be influenced by recent ETF inflows and mainstream media coverage. Polymarket, while larger in volume, has a more global user base that may weigh macroeconomic and regulatory risks more heavily. The spread indicates that while both platforms are bullish, the degree of conviction differs. This discrepancy will narrow as the resolution date approaches and traders exploit the price difference.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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