Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

US ISM Services PMI for October

Total Volume

$10.00

Events

Markets

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US ISM Services PMI for October

Vol

$10.00

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $10.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $10.00

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

15 markets tracked

Will US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 be above 54.20?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(15)

Market	Platform	Price
Will US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 be above 54.20?	Kalshi	61%
Will US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 be above 54.40?	Kalshi	60%
Will US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 be above 54.00?	Kalshi	54%
Will US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 be above 53.60?	Kalshi	51%
Will US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 be above 53.80?	Kalshi	50%
Will US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 be above 55.60?	Kalshi	50%
Will US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 be above 55.80?	Kalshi	48%
Will US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 be above 54.60?	Kalshi	48%
Will US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 be above 56.20?	Kalshi	47%
Will US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 be above 55.40?	Kalshi	46%
Will US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 be above 55.20?	Kalshi	43%
Will US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 be above 55.00?	Kalshi	42%
Will US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 be above 54.80?	Kalshi	41%
Will US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 be above 56.00?	Kalshi	40%
Will US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 be above 56.40?	Kalshi	39%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

61%

Top Probability

$10.00

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

October 2026 If US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 is above X , then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released. This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** US ISM Services PMI for October
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** October 2026

If US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 is above X , then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released. This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 is above 

56.4

, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $10
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 be above 56.40?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 11, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 38.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 61.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 be above 56.20?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 11, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 46.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 53.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 be above 56.00?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 11, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 39.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 60.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 be above 55.80?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 11, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 48.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 52.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 be above 55.60?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 11, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 be above 55.40?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 11, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 46.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 be above 55.20?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 11, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 43.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 be above 55.00?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 11, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 42.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 58.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 be above 54.80?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 11, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 41.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 be above 54.60?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 11, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 47.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 52.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 be above 54.40?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 11, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 60.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 40.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 be above 54.20?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 11, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 61.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 39.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 be above 54.00?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 11, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 54.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 46.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 be above 53.80?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 11, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 be above 53.60?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 11, 2026): Vol $10
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

US ISM Services PMI for October

Volume$10.00

Markets15

15 of 15

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KALSHI

Will US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 be above 54.20?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 61.0¢No 39.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 be above 54.20?

If US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 is above 54.2 , then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

KALSHI

Will US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 be above 54.40?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 60.0¢No 40.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 be above 54.40?

If US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 is above 54.4 , then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

KALSHI

Will US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 be above 54.00?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 54.0¢No 46.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 be above 54.00?

If US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 is above 54 , then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

KALSHI

Will US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 be above 53.60?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 51.0¢No 49.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 be above 53.60?

If US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 is above 53.6 , then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

KALSHI

Will US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 be above 53.80?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 50.0¢No 50.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 be above 53.80?

If US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 is above 53.8 , then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

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Average Yes Price

48¢

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US ISM Services PMI for October

US ISM Services PMI for October

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Will US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 be above 54.20?

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Events (1)

US ISM Services PMI for October

Markets (15)

Will US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 be above 54.20?

Will US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 be above 54.20?

Will US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 be above 54.40?

Will US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 be above 54.40?

Will US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 be above 54.00?

Will US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 be above 54.00?

Will US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 be above 53.60?

Will US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 be above 53.60?

Will US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 be above 53.80?

Will US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 be above 53.80?

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Will US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 be above 54.20?

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US ISM Services PMI for October

Will US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 be above 54.20?

Will US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 be above 54.20?

Will US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 be above 54.40?

Will US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 be above 54.40?

Will US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 be above 54.00?

Will US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 be above 54.00?

Will US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 be above 53.60?

Will US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 be above 53.60?

Will US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 be above 53.80?

Will US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 be above 53.80?

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