This prediction market addresses whether Iran will possess a nuclear weapon by the end of 2026. The question centers on the Islamic Republic's nuclear program, which has been a major international security concern for decades. The market resolves based on official confirmation from international bodies like the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the Iranian government itself, or credible global news organizations. This topic sits at the intersection of non-proliferation efforts, regional geopolitics in the Middle East, and the effectiveness of international diplomacy and sanctions. Recent years have seen the collapse of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, and a subsequent acceleration of Iran's nuclear activities. The IAEA has repeatedly reported that Iran is enriching uranium to levels close to weapons-grade and has accumulated stockpiles far exceeding the limits of the JCPOA. Interest in this prediction stems from the profound implications for global security, regional stability, and the potential for a new nuclear arms race in a volatile part of the world. Analysts, policymakers, and investors monitor Iran's breakout time, the estimated period required to produce enough fissile material for one bomb, which has significantly shortened.

Historical Context

Iran's nuclear program began in the 1950s with support from the United States under the 'Atoms for Peace' program. Following the 1979 Islamic Revolution, the program became clandestine and a source of international suspicion. In 2002, an Iranian opposition group revealed the existence of secret nuclear facilities at Natanz and Arak, leading to increased IAEA scrutiny and UN sanctions. The diplomatic zenith was the 2015 JCPOA, negotiated between Iran and the P5+1 nations (the US, UK, France, Russia, China, and Germany). The deal imposed strict limits on Iran's nuclear activities in exchange for sanctions relief. This history is crucial because the JCPOA successfully extended Iran's breakout time to over a year. In May 2018, President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew the US from the deal and reimposed crippling sanctions. Iran responded by gradually abandoning all key limits of the JCPOA starting in 2019. This cycle of agreement and collapse defines the current crisis, with Iran now possessing a much more advanced program than before the deal was signed.

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