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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-07 House seat? | Poly | 91% |
Will the Republican Party win the AZ-07 House seat? | Poly | 9% |
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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed af
Traders on prediction markets currently give Democrats a 91% chance to win Arizona's 7th congressional district seat in the 2026 election. In simpler terms, the collective bet is a near-certainty, roughly a 9 in 10 chance, that the district will remain under Democratic control. This shows an extremely high level of confidence in the outcome over two years before the vote.
Two main factors explain this overwhelming forecast. First, the district's recent voting history is strongly Democratic. The seat is currently held by Representative Ruben Gallego, who left it to run successfully for the U.S. Senate in 2024. Democrat Raúl Grijalva held the seat for over twenty years before that. In the 2024 presidential election, this district voted for the Democratic candidate by a margin of over 30 points.
Second, the structure of the election favors the incumbent party. The 2026 race will be a midterm election, which can sometimes swing against the sitting president's party. However, the district's deep-blue profile makes it a safe Democratic seat that is unlikely to be competitive barring a major political realignment. Markets are essentially pricing in the district's stable partisan lean.
The main event is Election Day on November 4, 2026. Before that, the candidate selection process will provide signals. The filing deadline for candidates to appear on the primary ballot will occur in early 2026. Watch for whether a strong, well-funded Republican challenger emerges, which could slightly tighten the odds. The primary elections, likely in August 2026, will formally set the general election matchup. Any significant national political shifts or local scandals involving the Democratic nominee could also move the prediction.
For U.S. House elections in non-competitive districts, prediction markets have a strong track record when forecasting this far ahead. They reliably identify "safe" seats for either party. The major limitation here is time. With over 250 days until the election, this is a very long-term forecast. The 91% probability reflects current conditions, but unforeseen events could change the political landscape. For a district with this strong a partisan history, however, the core prediction of a Democratic win is historically quite stable.
Prediction markets assign a 91% probability that the Democratic Party will win Arizona's 7th congressional district seat in the 2026 House election. This price, trading at 91 cents for a "Yes" outcome on Polymarket, indicates traders view the outcome as nearly certain. However, with only $2,000 in total market volume, this liquidity is thin. High confidence paired with low trading activity suggests the current price may reflect a strong consensus rather than heavily tested conviction.
The extreme odds are rooted in the district's recent electoral history and demographic composition. AZ-07, covering most of central and west Phoenix, is a deep-blue district drawn during the 2020 redistricting cycle. The incumbent, Democratic Representative Ruben Gallego, won the seat in 2022 with over 76% of the vote before successfully running for U.S. Senate in 2024. The 2024 race to replace him saw Democrat Raúl Grijalva Jr. win by a margin exceeding 40 percentage points. This district has a significant Latino plurality and consistently votes for Democratic candidates by some of the widest margins in Arizona.
The 91% price leaves little room for a competitive race, but two scenarios could shift the odds. First, an unexpected scandal involving the Democratic nominee could make the race marginally competitive, though the district's partisan lean makes a flip unlikely. Second, and more probable, is that the odds tighten slightly closer to the election if national political dynamics shift dramatically. For example, a severe downturn for Democrats in the 2026 national environment could compress the price toward the 80-85% range. The market will likely remain heavily skewed toward Democrats unless the district's boundaries are altered before 2026, which is not currently anticipated.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market concerns the outcome of the 2026 election for Arizona's 7th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. The market will resolve based on the party affiliation of the winning candidate as determined by major media outlets and official election results following the November 4, 2026, election. Arizona's 7th district is a politically competitive area covering parts of Phoenix and its western suburbs, including Glendale and Tolleson. The seat is currently held by Democratic Representative Ruben Gallego, who is not seeking re-election in 2026 as he runs for the U.S. Senate. This creates an open seat contest that both major parties view as winnable, making it a focal point for national political strategy and spending. Interest in this market stems from its status as a bellwether for broader political trends in Arizona, a critical swing state, and for control of the narrowly divided House of Representatives. The outcome will test Democratic strength in a majority-Hispanic district and Republican efforts to make inroads with suburban and Latino voters.
Arizona's 7th congressional district has undergone significant demographic and political changes. It was created after the 1960 census and was historically a Republican-leaning district for decades. A major shift began after the 2000 census, when redistricting made it a majority-Hispanic district. The current boundaries were finalized by the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission in 2022, solidifying its Democratic lean but maintaining competitiveness. Democrat Ed Pastor first won the seat in 1991, becoming Arizona's first Hispanic congressional representative. He held the seat for 23 years until his retirement in 2015. Ruben Gallego won the Democratic primary in 2014 and has held the seat since, with his margins of victory increasing over time. The 2022 election saw Gallego defeat Republican nominee Josh Barnett by 62% to 38%, a typical result for the district in recent cycles. However, statewide Republican candidates have performed better in the district than federal ones, suggesting split-ticket voting potential. The last time a Republican represented this district was in 1991.
The outcome of the AZ-07 race will influence the balance of power in the U.S. House of Representatives, where Republicans hold a narrow majority. A party switch in this district could affect legislative priorities on immigration, healthcare, and economic policy. The district's population is over 60% Hispanic, making it a key indicator of Latino voting trends in the Southwest. Political analysts view AZ-07 as a test case for whether Democrats can maintain support among Hispanic voters, a demographic where some polls show declining margins. A Republican victory would signal potential inroads with suburban and minority voters, reshaping national electoral strategies. For Arizona, the race will help determine the state's political direction ahead of the 2028 presidential election. Local issues like water management in the Colorado River basin, semiconductor manufacturing investments, and border security directly impact the district's economy and could sway voter decisions.
As of early 2025, the race is in its formative stages. The Democratic field is taking shape, with former State Senator Raquel Terán as an announced candidate. Other potential Democratic candidates include State Representative Analise Ortiz and Phoenix City Councilmember Laura Pastor. On the Republican side, no candidate has formally declared, but state House Speaker Ben Toma is considering a run. National party committees are conducting polling and voter analysis to guide their resource allocation. The Arizona Secretary of State has certified the district boundaries for the 2026 election, with no pending legal challenges to the map. Candidate filing deadlines are in April 2026, with primary elections scheduled for August 4, 2026.
As of early 2025, Democrat Raquel Terán has announced her candidacy. Several other Democrats and Republicans are considering runs but have not formally declared. The candidate field will become clearer through 2025 as filing deadlines approach.
The general election is on November 4, 2026. The primary election to select party nominees is scheduled for August 4, 2026. Early voting in Arizona typically begins about one month before each election day.
The district includes parts of Phoenix, along with the cities of Glendale and Tolleson. It also covers the communities of Maryvale and parts of west Phoenix. The district is entirely within Maricopa County.
Yes, but not since 1991. Republicans held the seat for decades until Democrat Ed Pastor's victory in a 1991 special election. The district's demographics have shifted significantly since then, becoming majority-Hispanic.
The market resolves based on the party affiliation of the candidate declared the winner by consensus among major media outlets like the Associated Press, CNN, and Fox News, or by official certification from the Arizona Secretary of State.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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