$7.52K
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$7.52K
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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
On Feb 1, 2027 If the Democratic party has X Y House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Prediction markets currently assign a low probability to Republicans holding exactly 193 seats in the 120th Congress. The leading contract on Kalshi trades at approximately 23 cents, implying just a 23% chance. This indicates the market views this specific outcome as unlikely, though not impossible. With thin liquidity of only $41,000 spread across 11 related seat-count markets, the consensus is tentative. The broader suite of markets suggests traders are focusing probabilities on a range of outcomes centered on whether Republicans will secure a majority (218+ seats) or a more modest gain.
The low probability for exactly 193 seats is shaped by structural and political factors. First, 193 seats would represent a loss from the Republican Party's current position, as they hold 221 seats in the 118th Congress. This price reflects a bearish outlook for the GOP in the 2024 election cycle, factoring in a challenging Senate map and potential presidential coattails. Second, historical midterm patterns suggest the president's party typically loses seats, but the 2024 election is a presidential year, not a midterm, adding uncertainty. Third, the market is likely pricing in the high likelihood of a closely divided House, where outcomes are clustered within a narrow range, making any single seat count, like 193, a low-probability pinpoint forecast.
The odds for this specific outcome are highly sensitive to the 2024 election results and subsequent special elections before February 2027. A decisive Republican presidential victory could significantly lower the probability of a drop to 193 seats by boosting down-ballot candidates. Conversely, a Democratic wave election in 2024 would make 193 or fewer seats more plausible. Key catalysts include the party nominees' selection in mid-2024, the general election outcome on November 5, 2024, and any unexpected events affecting congressional retirements or redistricting litigation. The market will remain volatile until the 2024 election provides concrete results, after which trading will refine expectations for the final seat count in the 120th Congress.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns the projected number of House of Representatives seats the Democratic Party will hold following the 2026 United States midterm elections, with the specific outcome measured on February 1, 2027. The midterm elections, held in the sixth year of a presidential term, are historically a referendum on the sitting president's party and often result in significant seat shifts. The 2026 elections will determine control of the 119th Congress, with all 435 House seats up for election. The outcome is critical for legislative agenda-setting, committee control, and the balance of power in Washington, D.C., especially as it precedes the 2028 presidential election cycle. Interest in this market stems from political analysts, investors, and observers tracking partisan control, the potential for legislative gridlock or productivity, and the national political climate. Recent developments, including redistricting battles from the 2020 census, evolving demographic trends in key suburban districts, and the political fallout from the 2024 presidential election, all contribute to the uncertainty and significance of the 2026 House races. The market resolves based on the official party affiliation of members sworn in at the start of the new Congress in January 2027.
The modern pattern of midterm elections shows a strong tendency for the president's party to lose House seats. Since World War II, the president's party has lost an average of 26 seats in the sixth-year midterm, a phenomenon often attributed to voter fatigue, economic cycles, and a natural rebalancing after a presidential victory. A key precedent is the 2018 midterms during President Trump's second year, where Democrats gained 41 seats to retake the House, fueled by opposition in suburban districts. Conversely, in 2022, President Biden's first midterm, Democrats defied historical expectations by limiting Republican gains, losing only 9 seats while retaining a narrow majority, a result attributed to candidate quality issues and the abortion debate. The 2026 election will occur after a full presidential term under the incumbent, allowing for a more comprehensive referendum on their administration's policies. Redistricting following the 2030 census is still years away, meaning the district lines for 2026 will be the same as those used in 2024, which were heavily litigated and resulted in a map that slightly favors Republicans but contains numerous highly competitive seats.
The number of seats Democrats hold after the 2026 midterms will determine their ability to shape legislation, conduct oversight, and influence the national agenda for the final two years of the presidential term. If Democrats retain or expand their majority, they can advance priorities on climate, healthcare, and taxation, while also controlling powerful investigative committees. A loss of the majority would cede this agenda-setting power to Republicans, likely resulting in legislative gridlock, investigations into the executive branch, and attempts to pass conservative policies that would face a presidential veto. Beyond Washington, the results will be interpreted as a national mood check, influencing donor enthusiasm, candidate recruitment for 2028, and policy decisions at the state level. The outcome also directly affects millions of Americans through its impact on potential legislation regarding taxes, social security, immigration, and healthcare funding.
As of late 2024, following the recent elections, Democrats hold a narrow House majority. The political landscape is in an early but active phase for the 2026 cycle. Both the DCCC and NRCC have begun candidate recruitment efforts in targeted districts. Fundraising reports for the first quarter of 2025 will provide the first concrete data on incumbent strength and challenger viability. Key factors already in play include ongoing debates over the economy and immigration, which are likely to be central themes, and the impending retirement decisions of long-serving members, which could open up additional competitive seats. Independent analysts like The Cook Political Report have not yet issued formal 2026 race ratings, but are monitoring demographic shifts and voter registration trends in key states like Arizona, Georgia, and New York.
Democrats need to win at least 218 seats out of 435 to hold an outright majority. This number can be 217 if there are vacancies, as the majority threshold is half of the seated members plus one.
The 'midterm curse' refers to the historical tendency for the political party of the sitting president to lose seats in Congress during midterm elections. Since 1946, the president's party has lost House seats in 18 out of 20 midterms, with an average loss of 26 seats in the sixth-year election.
Based on recent elections, states with multiple competitive districts likely include New York, California, Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Texas. These states feature a mix of suburban districts that swing between parties and are heavily targeted by both national committees.
The 2026 elections will use the same congressional district maps drawn after the 2020 census. Major legal challenges to these maps have largely been resolved, providing a stable, known battlefield for both parties until the next redistricting cycle after the 2030 census.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) and National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) are the official campaign arms of their respective parties in the House. They recruit candidates, provide strategic guidance, conduct opposition research, and funnel hundreds of millions of dollars into advertising and field operations for targeted races.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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12 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will the Democratic party win 226-229 House seats in the 120th Congress? | Kalshi | 16% |
Will the Democratic party win 230-233 House seats in the 120th Congress? | Kalshi | 14% |
Will the Democratic party win 222-225 House seats in the 120th Congress? | Kalshi | 14% |
Will the Democratic party win above 249 House seats in the 120th Congress? | Kalshi | 10% |
Will the Democratic party win 242-245 House seats in the 120th Congress? | Kalshi | 9% |
Will the Democratic party win 218-221 House seats in the 120th Congress? | Kalshi | 8% |
Will the Democratic party win 238-241 House seats in the 120th Congress? | Kalshi | 8% |
Will the Democratic party win below 210 House seats in the 120th Congress? | Kalshi | 8% |
Will the Democratic party win 234-237 House seats in the 120th Congress? | Kalshi | 7% |
Will the Democratic party win 210-213 House seats in the 120th Congress? | Kalshi | 6% |
Will the Democratic party win 214-217 House seats in the 120th Congress? | Kalshi | 5% |
Will the Democratic party win 246-249 House seats in the 120th Congress? | Kalshi | 5% |
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