GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?

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How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?

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12 markets tracked

Will the Democratic party win 234-237 House seats in the 120th Congress?

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Single-Platform Markets(12)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Democratic party win 234-237 House seats in the 120th Congress?	Kalshi	12%
Will the Democratic party win 230-233 House seats in the 120th Congress?	Kalshi	11%
Will the Democratic party win 226-229 House seats in the 120th Congress?	Kalshi	11%
Will the Democratic party win 222-225 House seats in the 120th Congress?	Kalshi	11%
Will the Democratic party win above 249 House seats in the 120th Congress?	Kalshi	9%
Will the Democratic party win 218-221 House seats in the 120th Congress?	Kalshi	9%
Will the Democratic party win 238-241 House seats in the 120th Congress?	Kalshi	8%
Will the Democratic party win 214-217 House seats in the 120th Congress?	Kalshi	7%
Will the Democratic party win below 210 House seats in the 120th Congress?	Kalshi	6%
Will the Democratic party win 210-213 House seats in the 120th Congress?	Kalshi	6%
Will the Democratic party win 242-245 House seats in the 120th Congress?	Kalshi	5%
Will the Democratic party win 246-249 House seats in the 120th Congress?	Kalshi	4%

AI Analysis

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12%

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About This Event

On Feb 1, 2027 If the Democratic party has X Y House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Individuals caucusing with the Democrats will be included.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Feb 1, 2027

If the Democratic party has X Y House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Individuals caucusing with the Democrats will be included.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Democratic party has between 246-249 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Democratic party win above 249 House seats in the 120th Congress?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.7% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Democratic party win 246-249 House seats in the 120th Congress?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the Democratic party win 242-245 House seats in the 120th Congress?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.7% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the Democratic party win 238-241 House seats in the 120th Congress?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.3% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the Democratic party win 234-237 House seats in the 120th Congress?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the Democratic party win 230-233 House seats in the 120th Congress?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the Democratic party win 226-229 House seats in the 120th Congress?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the Democratic party win 222-225 House seats in the 120th Congress?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the Democratic party win 218-221 House seats in the 120th Congress?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the Democratic party win 214-217 House seats in the 120th Congress?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the Democratic party win 210-213 House seats in the 120th Congress?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the Democratic party win below 210 House seats in the 120th Congress?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.3% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?

On Feb 1, 2027 If the Democratic party has X Y House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Individuals caucusing with the Democrats will be included.

Volume$0.00

Markets12

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KALSHI

Will the Democratic party win 234-237 House seats in the 120th Congress?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 11.5¢No 88.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Democratic party win 234-237 House seats in the 120th Congress?

If the Democratic party has between 234-237 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will the Democratic party win 230-233 House seats in the 120th Congress?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 11.5¢No 88.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Democratic party win 230-233 House seats in the 120th Congress?

If the Democratic party has between 230-233 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will the Democratic party win 226-229 House seats in the 120th Congress?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 11.0¢No 89.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Democratic party win 226-229 House seats in the 120th Congress?

If the Democratic party has between 226-229 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will the Democratic party win 222-225 House seats in the 120th Congress?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 10.5¢No 89.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Democratic party win 222-225 House seats in the 120th Congress?

If the Democratic party has between 222-225 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will the Democratic party win above 249 House seats in the 120th Congress?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 9.3¢No 90.7¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Democratic party win above 249 House seats in the 120th Congress?

If the Democratic party has above 249 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/sEzbdB" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?"></iframe>

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How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?

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Will the Democratic party win 234-237 House seats in the 120th Congress?

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Events (1)

How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?

Markets (12)

Will the Democratic party win 234-237 House seats in the 120th Congress?

Will the Democratic party win 234-237 House seats in the 120th Congress?

Will the Democratic party win 230-233 House seats in the 120th Congress?

Will the Democratic party win 230-233 House seats in the 120th Congress?

Will the Democratic party win 226-229 House seats in the 120th Congress?

Will the Democratic party win 226-229 House seats in the 120th Congress?

Will the Democratic party win 222-225 House seats in the 120th Congress?

Will the Democratic party win 222-225 House seats in the 120th Congress?

Will the Democratic party win above 249 House seats in the 120th Congress?

Will the Democratic party win above 249 House seats in the 120th Congress?

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Will the Democratic party win 234-237 House seats in the 120th Congress?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?

Will the Democratic party win 234-237 House seats in the 120th Congress?

Will the Democratic party win 234-237 House seats in the 120th Congress?

Will the Democratic party win 230-233 House seats in the 120th Congress?

Will the Democratic party win 230-233 House seats in the 120th Congress?

Will the Democratic party win 226-229 House seats in the 120th Congress?

Will the Democratic party win 226-229 House seats in the 120th Congress?

Will the Democratic party win 222-225 House seats in the 120th Congress?

Will the Democratic party win 222-225 House seats in the 120th Congress?

Will the Democratic party win above 249 House seats in the 120th Congress?

Will the Democratic party win above 249 House seats in the 120th Congress?

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