GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

NYC population change (July 2025 – July 2027)?

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NYC population change (July 2025 – July 2027)?

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$0.00

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

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Kalshi

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8 markets tracked

Will New York City experience population increase between 0.01% and 0.99% during 2025-2027?

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Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will New York City experience population increase between 0.01% and 0.99% during 2025-2027?	Kalshi	43%
Will New York City experience population increase between -0.99% and 0% during 2025-2027?	Kalshi	32%
Will New York City experience population increase 3% or more during 2025-2027?	Kalshi	9%
Will New York City experience population increase between 1% and 1.99% during 2025-2027?	Kalshi	7%
Will New York City experience population increase between -1.99% and -1% during 2025-2027?	Kalshi	7%
Will New York City experience population decrease 3% or more during 2025-2027?	Kalshi	2%
Will New York City experience population increase between -2.99% and -2% during 2025-2027?	Kalshi	2%
Will New York City experience population increase between 2% and 2.99% during 2025-2027?	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

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43%

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$0.00

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About This Event

2025-2027 If New York City experiences a population increase of between X or Y between July 1, 2025 and July 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Population change is calculated as, , July 2027 Population - July 2025 Population, / July 2025 Population, × 100, rounded to one decimal place. The market resolves based on official census counts or estimates from the relevant national statistical office or census bureau for the specified geography. If the geography is split into multiple entitie

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** NYC population change (July 2025 – July 2027)?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** 2025-2027

If New York City experiences a population increase of between X or Y between July 1, 2025 and July 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Population change is calculated as, , July 2027 Population - July 2025 Population, / July 2025 Population, × 100, rounded to one decimal place. The market resolves based on official census counts or estimates from the relevant national statistical office or census bureau for the specified geography. If the geography is split into multiple entitie

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If New York City experiences a population increase of between -3% or less between July 1, 2025 and July 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Population change is calculated as ((July 2027 Population - July 2025 Population) / July 2025 Population) × 100, rounded to one decimal p"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will New York City experience population decrease 3% or more during 2025-2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 1, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will New York City experience population increase 3% or more during 2025-2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 1, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will New York City experience population increase between -2.99% and -2% during 2025-2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 1, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will New York City experience population increase between 2% and 2.99% during 2025-2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 1, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will New York City experience population increase between -1.99% and -1% during 2025-2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 1, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will New York City experience population increase between 1% and 1.99% during 2025-2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 1, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will New York City experience population increase between -0.99% and 0% during 2025-2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 1, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 32.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 68.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will New York City experience population increase between 0.01% and 0.99% during 2025-2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 1, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 42.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

NYC population change (July 2025 – July 2027)?

Volume$0.00

Markets8

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KALSHI

Will New York City experience population increase between 0.01% and 0.99% during 2025-2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 42.5¢No 57.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will New York City experience population increase between 0.01% and 0.99% during 2025-2027?

If New York City experiences a population increase of between 0.01% to 0.99% between July 1, 2025 and July 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Population change is calculated as ((July 2027 Population - July 2025 Population) / July 2025 Population) × 100, rounded to one decima

KALSHI

Will New York City experience population increase between -0.99% and 0% during 2025-2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 32.0¢No 68.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will New York City experience population increase between -0.99% and 0% during 2025-2027?

If New York City experiences a population increase of between -0.99% to 0% between July 1, 2025 and July 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Population change is calculated as ((July 2027 Population - July 2025 Population) / July 2025 Population) × 100, rounded to one decimal

KALSHI

Will New York City experience population increase 3% or more during 2025-2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 9.0¢No 91.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will New York City experience population increase 3% or more during 2025-2027?

If New York City experiences a population increase of between 3% or more between July 1, 2025 and July 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Population change is calculated as ((July 2027 Population - July 2025 Population) / July 2025 Population) × 100, rounded to one decimal pl

KALSHI

Will New York City experience population increase between 1% and 1.99% during 2025-2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 7.0¢No 93.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will New York City experience population increase between 1% and 1.99% during 2025-2027?

If New York City experiences a population increase of between 1% to 1.99% between July 1, 2025 and July 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Population change is calculated as ((July 2027 Population - July 2025 Population) / July 2025 Population) × 100, rounded to one decimal p

KALSHI

Will New York City experience population increase between -1.99% and -1% during 2025-2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 6.5¢No 93.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will New York City experience population increase between -1.99% and -1% during 2025-2027?

If New York City experiences a population increase of between -1.99% to -1% between July 1, 2025 and July 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Population change is calculated as ((July 2027 Population - July 2025 Population) / July 2025 Population) × 100, rounded to one decimal

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13¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/sJpzrp" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="NYC population change (July 2025 – July 2027)?"></iframe>

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NYC population change (July 2025 – July 2027)?

NYC population change (July 2025 – July 2027)?

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Will New York City experience population increase between 0.01% and 0.99% during 2025-2027?

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About This Event

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Events (1)

NYC population change (July 2025 – July 2027)?

Markets (8)

Will New York City experience population increase between 0.01% and 0.99% during 2025-2027?

Will New York City experience population increase between 0.01% and 0.99% during 2025-2027?

Will New York City experience population increase between -0.99% and 0% during 2025-2027?

Will New York City experience population increase between -0.99% and 0% during 2025-2027?

Will New York City experience population increase 3% or more during 2025-2027?

Will New York City experience population increase 3% or more during 2025-2027?

Will New York City experience population increase between 1% and 1.99% during 2025-2027?

Will New York City experience population increase between 1% and 1.99% during 2025-2027?

Will New York City experience population increase between -1.99% and -1% during 2025-2027?

Will New York City experience population increase between -1.99% and -1% during 2025-2027?

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Will New York City experience population increase between 0.01% and 0.99% during 2025-2027?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

NYC population change (July 2025 – July 2027)?

Will New York City experience population increase between 0.01% and 0.99% during 2025-2027?

Will New York City experience population increase between 0.01% and 0.99% during 2025-2027?

Will New York City experience population increase between -0.99% and 0% during 2025-2027?

Will New York City experience population increase between -0.99% and 0% during 2025-2027?

Will New York City experience population increase 3% or more during 2025-2027?

Will New York City experience population increase 3% or more during 2025-2027?

Will New York City experience population increase between 1% and 1.99% during 2025-2027?

Will New York City experience population increase between 1% and 1.99% during 2025-2027?

Will New York City experience population increase between -1.99% and -1% during 2025-2027?

Will New York City experience population increase between -1.99% and -1% during 2025-2027?

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