$1.04M
1
10
$1.04M
1
10
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Infinex's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Infinex (https://infinex.xyz/) doesn't laun
Prediction markets are pricing in a high likelihood that Infinex's token will achieve a fully diluted valuation (FDV) exceeding $200 million immediately after its launch. On Polymarket, the "Yes" share for "Infinex FDV above $200M one day after launch?" is trading at 75¢, implying a 75% probability. This suggests the consensus view is strongly confident, viewing a sub-$200M FDV as the less probable outcome. The market boasts high liquidity, with over $1 million in volume, indicating significant trader conviction in this assessment.
The primary driver is Infinex's strategic positioning as a front-end layer designed to simplify user access to decentralized perpetuals trading on the Synthetix protocol. Its development by core Synthetix contributors provides it with inherent credibility and a built-in user base from the DeFi-native community. Secondly, the current market appetite for major "points" programs and potential airdrops, similar to the successful launch of other DeFi governance tokens, creates a powerful speculative catalyst. A launch FDV of $200 million is considered relatively modest for a project with its backing and target market, making it an achievable benchmark.
The most significant near-term catalyst is the official announcement of a token generation event (TGE) and its specific economic parameters. A launch delayed into a broader crypto bear market could severely depress initial valuations. Conversely, a launch during a strong altcoin rally could propel the FDV well beyond the $200M threshold. Regulatory actions targeting decentralized exchanges or the Synthetix ecosystem also pose a downside risk. The 75% probability leaves room for "no" outcomes, which would likely be triggered by a combination of poor tokenomics, unfavorable launch timing, or a failure to convert its "points" hype into sustained trading demand post-TGE.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on the fully diluted valuation (FDV) of Infinex's native token immediately following its public launch. Infinex is a decentralized perpetual futures exchange built on the Synthetix protocol, aiming to provide a user experience comparable to centralized exchanges while maintaining decentralized custody. The market resolves based on whether Infinex's FDV exceeds a specified threshold exactly one day after its token becomes publicly transferable and tradable, with valuation determined by the most liquid price source available at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The interest in this market stems from Infinex's position as one of the most anticipated DeFi launches of 2024, with the project seeking to address key usability barriers in decentralized trading. Market participants are closely watching whether Infinex can achieve significant valuation traction immediately post-launch, which would signal strong market confidence in its potential to capture market share from both centralized exchanges and existing DeFi perpetual platforms. The outcome will provide insights into current market appetite for new DeFi infrastructure projects and the valuation benchmarks for exchange tokens in the current crypto cycle.
The development of Infinex follows several key trends in decentralized finance history. In 2020, Synthetix pioneered synthetic assets on Ethereum, reaching over $2.5 billion in total value locked during the 2021 bull market. However, user experience challenges limited broader adoption of DeFi perpetual trading. The 2022 collapse of FTX, which held over $32 billion in customer assets, accelerated demand for non-custodial trading solutions with centralized exchange usability. This created market space for projects like Infinex that could combine self-custody with familiar trading interfaces. Previous exchange token launches provide important precedents for Infinex's valuation expectations. dYdX's DYDX token achieved a fully diluted valuation of approximately $4.5 billion upon its September 2021 launch, while GMX's token reached a peak FDV of $1.2 billion in November 2022. These historical benchmarks help establish valuation expectations for new DeFi exchange tokens. The current market context differs significantly from previous cycles, with increased regulatory scrutiny and more sophisticated valuation models applied to new token launches.
The outcome of this prediction market matters because it serves as a real-time gauge of market confidence in next-generation DeFi infrastructure. A high FDV immediately post-launch would signal strong belief in Infinex's ability to capture meaningful market share from both centralized exchanges like Binance and existing DeFi perpetual platforms. This could accelerate institutional adoption of decentralized trading solutions and influence funding patterns for similar projects. Conversely, a lower-than-expected valuation might indicate market saturation or concerns about regulatory hurdles facing DeFi exchanges. The result affects multiple stakeholders including retail traders seeking new trading venues, liquidity providers allocating capital, developers considering building on the platform, and regulators monitoring DeFi growth. Downstream consequences include potential impacts on Synthetix token valuation, competitive responses from other perpetual exchanges, and broader market sentiment toward new DeFi token launches throughout 2024.
As of mid-2024, Infinex has completed its testnet phase with over 50,000 participating wallets and is preparing for mainnet launch. The project has secured funding from prominent investors including Paradigm, though specific valuation terms from private rounds remain undisclosed. Development milestones include integration with Synthetix v3 and implementation of gasless trading features. The exact launch date for the INF token has not been officially announced, but community expectations point toward Q3 2024 based on development progress and public communications from the team. Market anticipation remains high given Infinex's positioning at the intersection of improved user experience and decentralized trading infrastructure.
Fully diluted valuation represents a cryptocurrency's market capitalization if all possible tokens were in circulation at current prices. It's calculated by multiplying the current token price by the maximum total supply, providing a comprehensive view of potential market size that includes locked or yet-to-be-released tokens.
Infinex focuses specifically on perpetual futures trading with a user experience designed to rival centralized exchanges. Key differentiators include gasless transactions, simplified onboarding similar to CEXs, and deep liquidity integration with Synthetix's infrastructure for synthetic assets.
Post-launch token valuation depends on multiple factors including initial circulating supply, tokenomics structure, market sentiment, trading volume on the platform, competitor performance, broader crypto market conditions, and the effectiveness of liquidity provisioning mechanisms during the launch phase.
The market defines one day after launch as 4:00 PM Eastern Time on the calendar day following the token becoming publicly transferable and tradable. This specific timing ensures consistent measurement across time zones and market sessions.
If Infinex does not launch a publicly transferable and tradable token, the prediction market would resolve based on its specific rules, typically resulting in a 'No' resolution or cancellation depending on the market's contractual terms regarding non-occurrence of the underlying event.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
Share your predictions and analysis with other traders. Coming soon!
10 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 75% |
| Poly | 31% |
| Poly | 20% |
| Poly | 8% |
| Poly | 5% |
| Poly | 2% |
| Poly | 0% |
| Poly | 0% |
| Poly | 0% |
| Poly | 0% |
No related news found
Add this market to your website
<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/sRGFCy" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Infinex FDV above ___ one day after launch?"></iframe>