Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET
PM $0
1
1
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET
PM $0
1
1
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $0
Reported volume · provider units
1
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 24, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-24T09:00:05.844Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single binary contract on Polymarket, titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET" [1]. It resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1].
The resolution source is the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules state that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. A reader comparing this with a different Bitcoin contract should check the reference source, the averaging method, and the time window, since these determine what each contract settles on.
The title gives the window in Eastern Time, while the listed end time is recorded in UTC as 2026-10-25T04:20:00.000Z [1]. Readers should confirm that these two formats refer to the same moment before relying on the timing.
Reading the snapshot
The saved prices are Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. The provider observation time is 2026-10-24T09:00:05.844Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-24T09:52:49.542Z [1]. These prices describe that saved observation only. They are not live quotes, and they are not executable prices for any trade.
The two outcomes sum to 1.00 in this snapshot, and the Up price is slightly above the Down price. This is a small gap, and the snapshot does not explain it or indicate what the market expects. Because the sample includes only this one market, there is no comparison with other contracts or platforms here.
The market status is recorded as active at the time of observation [1]. Coverage is complete for this saved event: one market was found and one was included, and the sample is not marked as partial [1]. The evidence still does not establish that the provider lists every possible real-world outcome for this question.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show the current price, the current status, or any trading activity after the observation time. It does not include volume or the number of participants, so it cannot indicate liquidity or market depth. It also gives no information about why the prices are where they are.
The contract has not resolved according to the supplied evidence, and the listed end time is a rule-based closing time, not a record of the actual outcome. Readers should check the provider page for the latest status before drawing any conclusion.
References
- Polymarket: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-24T09:00:05.844Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 24, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-window Bitcoin price contract listed on Polymarket under the title Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET. The contract asks whether Bitcoin's price moves up or down over a five-minute window. Its settlement rule compares a time-weighted average price (TWAP) across the window with the price at the window's start. If the TWAP over the window is at or above the starting price, the market resolves to Up. Otherwise it resolves to Down [1]. The price used for settlement is not taken from any exchange or general spot market. The contract names a specific Chainlink data stream for the BTC/USD pair, a 60-second TWAP feed, as its resolution source [1]. The rules state that other sources and spot markets do not determine the outcome [1]. A reader comparing this contract with a Bitcoin price shown on another website should therefore expect that the two figures may not match, because they can draw on different data. The listed end time for the contract is 04:20 UTC on October 25, 2026 [1]. That is the close point for the window, not the moment the market was settled. The source record was observed at 09:00 UTC on October 24, 2026, and retrieved shortly after [1]. The market was marked as active in that record. Any later status, trading level, or settlement result would need a separate, newer record. Short contracts like this one are built around a single rule: the window's time-weighted price is compared with its opening reference. Because the outcome depends only on that comparison, the contract measures direction over the window rather than a price target or a longer trend.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the time-weighted average price of Bitcoin over a five-minute window, as reported by a specified Chainlink data stream, is greater than or equal to the price at the start of that window [1]. Because it is tied to one named data feed, the result depends on that feed rather than on the wider market. Traders and readers who want to understand the contract should read the settlement wording closely, since it defines both the reference price and the averaging method [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-24 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the Up outcome require?
The market resolves to Up if the time-weighted average price of Bitcoin over the stated window is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that window, using the named Chainlink TWAP data stream [1].
What happens if the average is below the starting price?
If the time-weighted average price over the window is below the price at the start of the window, the market resolves to Down [1].
Which price source determines the result?
The resolution source is the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data stream with a 60-second interval. The rules state that the market is not based on other sources or spot markets [1].
When does the window close?
The listed end time in the saved record is 04:20 UTC on October 25, 2026 [1]. This is the scheduled end of the window and does not show when settlement was completed.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Related prediction markets
Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
PM $116.21M · K 25.80M contractsWill Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?
Kalshi: Will Bitcoin be above $99,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?
Related contracts
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?
Kalshi: Will Bitcoin be below $55000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?
Related contracts
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?
Kalshi: Will Bitcoin be below $50000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?
Related contracts
Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.
Saved prices; check contract rules.
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET
PM $0Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET
PM $0
Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET
PM $0
Solana Up or Down - October 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET
PM $0
Dogecoin Up or Down - October 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET
PM $0Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
0
No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.