Will any party win a majority in the Costa Rica Legislative Assembly? | PredictPedia

Events

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Will any party win a majority in the Costa Rica Legislative Assembly?

Total Volume

$16.32K

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Will any party win a majority in the Costa Rica Legislative Assembly?

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $16.32K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $16.32K

100%

Kalshi leads

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1 market tracked

Will any party win a majority of seats in the 2026 Costa Rica Legislative Assembly election?

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Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will any party win a majority of seats in the 2026 Costa Rica Legislative Assembly election?	Kalshi	100%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

100%

Top Probability

$16.32K

Volume

Markets

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About This Event

On Feb 1, 2026 If any party has won at least 29 seats in the 2026 Costa Rica Legislative Assembly election, then the market resolves to Yes. A seat is considered "won" when a candidate affiliated with the specified party has been declared elected by the relevant electoral authority and either the time for legal challenges has expired, challenges have been resolved, or the member has taken their seat. Party affiliation is determined by the party under whose banner the candidate was elected, rega

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, February 22, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will any party win a majority in the Costa Rica Legislative Assembly?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Feb 1, 2026

If any party has won at least 29 seats in the 2026 Costa Rica Legislative Assembly election, then the market resolves to Yes. A seat is considered "won" when a candidate affiliated with the specified party has been declared elected by the relevant electoral authority and either the time for legal challenges has expired, challenges have been resolved, or the member has taken their seat. Party affiliation is determined by the party under whose banner the candidate was elected, rega

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If any party has won at least 29 seats in the 2026 Costa Rica Legislative Assembly election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A seat is considered "won" when a candidate affiliated with the specified party has been declared elected by the relevant electoral authority and either the "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $16.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will any party win a majority of seats in the 2026 Costa Rica Legislative Assembly election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2027): Vol $16.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

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## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

100¢

Kalshi

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/sVEdE2" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Will any party win a majority in the Costa Rica Legislative Assembly?"></iframe>

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Will any party win a majority in the Costa Rica Legislative Assembly?

Will any party win a majority in the Costa Rica Legislative Assembly?

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Will any party win a majority of seats in the 2026 Costa Rica Legislative Assembly election?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Events (1)