Snapshot observed 2026-10-29T00:00:05.980Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

This Kalshi event, "December 2026 Fed Combo · Rate and Dissents," contains six combination contracts for December 2026. Each one pairs a Federal Funds Rate Decision with a dissent count. The first contract, for example, pays out only if "ALL of the following occur for Dec 2026: Federal Funds Rate Decision: 25bp hike, Dissents: 0" [1]. The source adds that "If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No" [1].

The wording differs across the six contracts. Some specify a "25bp hike," some "no change," and some "25bp cut." Dissents are either "0" or ">0." Each contract's Yes outcome requires both conditions to hold, so a reader should compare the exact conditions in each title before comparing prices. The source also says the first officially released value is used for economic data, not preliminary or revised estimates, unless specified [1].

Reading the snapshot

The provider observation time is 2026-10-29T00:00:05.980Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-29T01:08:20.252Z [1]. These prices describe that observation, not a live quote or a later state of the market.

The six Yes prices in this snapshot are 0.485 (25bp hike, zero dissents), 0.3 (25bp hike, dissents above zero), 0.12 (no change, dissents above zero), 0.06 (no change, zero dissents), 0.015 (25bp cut, dissents above zero), and 0.005 (25bp cut, zero dissents). The coverage record shows 6 total markets and 6 included, with no partial sample [1]. That means this event's saved markets are all shown here, although the provider does not establish that every possible outcome is listed.

The Yes prices sum to 0.985, not 1.00. This snapshot does not explain that gap, and the prices are not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The 0.485 price should not be read as a forecast that a hike with zero dissents will happen.

Each market record shows an end date of 2026-12-16T15:00:00.000Z. The provider excerpt, however, states "Listed end time: not supplied" [1]. Treat the market record's end date as a listed close field only. The contract also states that it "will close and expire early" if a component becomes impossible or if all components are satisfied [1].

What remains uncertain

The evidence does not explain why any price is where it is, how many traders hold each view, or what recent events may have affected the market. It also does not provide historical accuracy data for these contracts. Volume data is not included here, and volume would not indicate liquidity or trader count in any case.

Because the contracts are combinations, their prices should not be averaged or compared with contracts on other platforms without matching the exact wording. A difference in price between contracts is not an arbitrage opportunity by itself.

References

1. Kalshi: December 2026 Fed Combo · Rate and Dissents. Provider data observed 2026-10-29T00:00:05.980Z.