Skip to main content
Market snapshot: . Prices may have changed since this snapshot.
Events
GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
Vol

PM $7.11M · K 26.1K contracts

|
Events

2

|
Markets

20

Current odds

Snapshot from

As of Oct 26, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is 4.25% at 71%, and on Kalshi it is Above 3.50% at 99.5%.

Polymarket

  1. 4.25%71%
  2. 4.0%17.6%
  3. ≥ 4.5%7.5%
  4. 3.5%1.8%
  5. 3.75%1.7%

Kalshi

  1. Above 3.50%99.5%
  2. Above 4.00%81%
  3. Above 4.25%60%
  4. Above 3.75%55%
  5. Above 4.50%12%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $7.11M · K 26.1K contracts

Reported volume · provider units

20

Saved contracts

0

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 26, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC

About This Event

The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

PolymarketKalshiEconomics
Number of rate cuts in 2026?

Number of rate cuts in 2026?

PM $54.84M · K 11.09M contracts

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Kalshi: Will the Fed cut rates 0 times?

Same question, fine print differs

PM Yes 96%Rules differK Yes 94.6%

Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?

Kalshi: Will the Fed cut rates 1 time?

Same question, fine print differs

PM Yes 1.4%Rules differK Yes 3%

Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Kalshi: Will the Fed cut rates 2 times?

Same question, fine print differs

PM Yes 0.4%Rules differK Yes 0.5%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

13 saved comparisonsNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC
KalshiSports
Fed funds rate after Oct 2026 meeting?

Fed funds rate after Oct 2026 meeting?

K 461.0K contracts
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?Yes 99.5%
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?Yes 99.5%
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?Yes 99.5%
+8 moreNext deadline Nov 4, 2026 UTC
KalshiSports
Fed funds rate after Dec 2026 meeting?

Fed funds rate after Dec 2026 meeting?

K 436.3K contracts
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?Yes 99.5%
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?Yes 98.5%
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?Yes 98.5%
+8 moreNext deadline Dec 16, 2026 UTC
PolymarketEconomics
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

PM $1.22M
Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Yes 72%
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?Yes 23.5%
Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Yes 5.1%
+2 moreNext deadline Dec 31, 2026 UTC
KalshiEconomics
Number of rate hikes in 2026?

Number of rate hikes in 2026?

K 312.3K contracts
Will there be exactly 2 Fed rate hikes in 2026?Yes 72.5%
Will there be exactly 1 Fed rate hike in 2026?Yes 24.5%
Will there be exactly 3 Fed rate hikes in 2026?Yes 6.5%
+1 moreNext deadline Jan 3, 2027 UTC
KalshiEconomics
October 2026 Fed Combo · Rate and Dissents

October 2026 Fed Combo · Rate and Dissents

K 30.7K contracts
Will the Federal Funds Rate Decision be No change AND Dissents be >0 for Oct 2026?Yes 83%
Will the Federal Funds Rate Decision be No change AND Dissents be 0 for Oct 2026?Yes 16.5%
Will the Federal Funds Rate Decision be 25bp hike AND Dissents be >0 for Oct 2026?Yes 3%
+3 moreNext deadline Nov 4, 2026 UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

0

Same-question pairs

0

No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.