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What will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) close at in December?
Total Volume
$0.00
Events
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Markets
8
What will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) close at in December?
Vol
$0.00
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Events
1
|
Markets
8
$0.00
1
8
$0.00
1
8
8 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 29% |
| Poly | 10% |
| Poly | 10% |
| Poly | 9% |
| Poly | 9% |
| Poly | 8% |
| Poly | 8% |
| Poly | 7% |
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This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on the final trading day of December 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that s
Prediction markets currently assign a low 29% probability that the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) will close below $23,500 on December 31, 2026. This 29% chance indicates the consensus view strongly favors the index finishing above that threshold, viewing a sub-$23,500 close as a less likely bearish scenario. With the NDX trading around $19,500 as of early 2024, this market is pricing in significant growth over the nearly three-year horizon, implying an approximate 20% total increase from current levels.
The low probability for a sub-$23,500 close reflects sustained market optimism in the long-term trajectory of major technology and growth stocks that dominate the Nasdaq 100. Primary drivers include anticipated continued innovation and investment in artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and semiconductor sectors, with companies like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple leading earnings growth. Furthermore, historical analysis shows the NDX has delivered strong returns over multi-year periods despite short-term volatility, and markets are pricing in the expectation that the Federal Reserve will have concluded its rate-hiking cycle, creating a more favorable liquidity environment by 2026.
The current bullish pricing could be disrupted by several material risks. A severe or prolonged economic recession before 2026 could drastically reduce corporate earnings and compress valuations, making the $23,500 level a resistance point rather than a floor. Geopolitical tensions affecting global tech supply chains or stringent new regulatory actions targeting major index constituents could also suppress growth. Conversely, odds for a close above $23,500 could strengthen further with accelerated adoption of AI technologies driving higher-than-expected profitability, or if inflationary pressures subside faster than forecast, allowing for earlier and deeper interest rate cuts. Key economic data releases, earnings reports through 2025, and the 2024 U.S. presidential election outcome will serve as significant interim catalysts that will adjust these long-term odds.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns the future closing value of the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) on the final trading day of December 2026. The Nasdaq 100 is a stock market index composed of 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange, weighted by market capitalization. It serves as a key benchmark for technology and growth-oriented sectors, including major companies like Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia, and Alphabet. The resolution of this market will be based on the official closing price published by Nasdaq for that specific date, with specific rules for tie-breaking and holiday-adjusted trading sessions. Interest in this forward-looking price stems from its role as a barometer for the health of the innovation economy, investor sentiment toward high-growth stocks, and broader macroeconomic expectations for interest rates and corporate earnings over a multi-year horizon. Market participants, including institutional investors, hedge funds, and individual traders, analyze this projection to gauge long-term trends in technology adoption, sector rotation, and the potential impact of fiscal and monetary policy.
The Nasdaq 100 Index was launched on January 31, 1985, with a base value of 250. It was designed to track the performance of the 100 largest domestic and international non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market. The index experienced unprecedented growth during the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s, peaking at 4,816.35 on March 24, 2000, before collapsing by nearly 80% by October 2002. This period established the NDX's reputation for high volatility and concentration in technology. A defining modern precedent was the index's remarkable rally following the COVID-19 pandemic market crash in March 2020. Fueled by low interest rates and accelerated digital adoption, the NDX soared from around 7,000 to over 16,000 by November 2021, a gain of approximately 130% in less than two years. This bull run demonstrated the index's sensitivity to monetary policy and secular tech trends. The subsequent bear market in 2022, where the index fell over 33%, highlighted its vulnerability to rising inflation and interest rates. Historically, the index has undergone several major rebalancings, most notably in 1998 and 2014, to adjust weightings and eligibility rules, influencing its sector composition and risk profile.
The closing level of the Nasdaq 100 in late 2026 matters because it encapsulates the market's multi-year verdict on the profitability and sustainability of the world's leading innovative companies. It is a proxy for the success of transformative technologies like artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and biotechnology. A significantly higher closing value would signal strong investor confidence in future earnings growth and a favorable economic environment for risk-taking, potentially leading to increased capital investment, hiring in the tech sector, and wealth effects for shareholders. Conversely, a stagnant or lower value could indicate concerns over regulation, competition, or economic stagnation, potentially dampening innovation funding. The outcome affects millions of investors globally through index funds, ETFs like the Invesco QQQ, and pension portfolios with tech exposure. It also has political ramifications, as the performance of major U.S. tech giants influences debates on antitrust policy, tax structures, and international competitiveness.
As of late 2023 and early 2024, the Nasdaq 100 has recovered significantly from its 2022 lows, driven by enthusiasm around artificial intelligence and expectations that the Federal Reserve will conclude its interest rate hiking cycle. The index has been testing and occasionally setting new all-time highs. Market focus is split between robust earnings from mega-cap leaders and concerns about the sustainability of high valuations, especially if economic growth slows. The trajectory of inflation and the timing of potential Fed rate cuts remain the most immediate macroeconomic drivers for the index.
The Nasdaq 100 includes 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq exchange. Major holdings consistently include Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia, Alphabet (Google), Meta Platforms, Tesla, and Broadcom. The list is rebalanced quarterly.
The Nasdaq Composite Index includes all common stocks listed on the Nasdaq exchange, numbering over 3,000 companies. The Nasdaq 100 is a subset of only the 100 largest non-financial firms, making it more concentrated and a purer benchmark for large-cap technology and growth stocks.
The price return version of the index uses the ticker symbol NDX. The total return version, which includes reinvested dividends, uses the ticker symbol NDXT. Major financial data providers and news outlets quote the NDX value.
The most common way for investors to gain exposure is through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that track the index. The Invesco QQQ Trust is the largest and most liquid, trading under the ticker QQQ. Mutual funds and futures contracts are also available.
The Nasdaq 100, like U.S. equity markets, has a regular trading session that closes at 4:00 p.m. Eastern Time. The official closing price used for index calculation and this prediction market's resolution is the consolidated last sale price at that time.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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