Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Next German federal election winner?

Total Volume

$64.85K

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Markets

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Next German federal election winner?

Vol

$64.85K

Events

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $64.85K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $64.85K

100%

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7 markets tracked

Will AfD win the next election to the German Bundestag?

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Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will AfD win the next election to the German Bundestag?	Kalshi	85%
Will CDU/CSU win the next election to the German Bundestag?	Kalshi	12%
Will SPD win the next election to the German Bundestag?	Kalshi	3%
Will Greens win the next election to the German Bundestag?	Kalshi	2%
Will The Left win the next election to the German Bundestag?	Kalshi	1%
Will FDP win the next election to the German Bundestag?	Kalshi	1%
Will BSW win the next election to the German Bundestag?	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

85%

Top Probability

$64.85K

Volume

Markets

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About This Event

in 2029 If X wins the next election to the German Bundestag, then the market resolves to Yes. For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. For purposes of this market, t

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Next German federal election winner?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** in 2029

If X wins the next election to the German Bundestag, then the market resolves to Yes. For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. For purposes of this market, t

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If CDU/CSU wins the next election to the German Bundestag, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $64.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will CDU/CSU win the next election to the German Bundestag?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 25, 2030): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will SPD win the next election to the German Bundestag?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 25, 2030): Vol $9.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will The Left win the next election to the German Bundestag?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 25, 2030): Vol $11.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Greens win the next election to the German Bundestag?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 25, 2030): Vol $9.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will FDP win the next election to the German Bundestag?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 25, 2030): Vol $11.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will BSW win the next election to the German Bundestag?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 25, 2030): Vol $8.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will AfD win the next election to the German Bundestag?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 25, 2030): Vol $12.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 85.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 15.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Next German federal election winner?

Volume$64.85K

Markets7

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KALSHI

Will AfD win the next election to the German Bundestag?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 85.0¢No 15.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will AfD win the next election to the German Bundestag?

If AfD wins the next election to the German Bundestag, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one ent

KALSHI

Will CDU/CSU win the next election to the German Bundestag?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 12.0¢No 88.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will CDU/CSU win the next election to the German Bundestag?

If CDU/CSU wins the next election to the German Bundestag, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one

KALSHI

Will SPD win the next election to the German Bundestag?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 3.0¢No 97.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will SPD win the next election to the German Bundestag?

If SPD wins the next election to the German Bundestag, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one ent

KALSHI

Will Greens win the next election to the German Bundestag?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 1.5¢No 98.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Greens win the next election to the German Bundestag?

If Greens wins the next election to the German Bundestag, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one

KALSHI

Will The Left win the next election to the German Bundestag?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 1.0¢No 99.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will The Left win the next election to the German Bundestag?

If The Left wins the next election to the German Bundestag, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the on

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Next German federal election winner?

Next German federal election winner?

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Will AfD win the next election to the German Bundestag?

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About This Event

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Next German federal election winner?

Markets (7)

Will AfD win the next election to the German Bundestag?

Will AfD win the next election to the German Bundestag?

Will CDU/CSU win the next election to the German Bundestag?

Will CDU/CSU win the next election to the German Bundestag?

Will SPD win the next election to the German Bundestag?

Will SPD win the next election to the German Bundestag?

Will Greens win the next election to the German Bundestag?

Will Greens win the next election to the German Bundestag?

Will The Left win the next election to the German Bundestag?

Will The Left win the next election to the German Bundestag?

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Will AfD win the next election to the German Bundestag?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Next German federal election winner?

Will AfD win the next election to the German Bundestag?

Will AfD win the next election to the German Bundestag?

Will CDU/CSU win the next election to the German Bundestag?

Will CDU/CSU win the next election to the German Bundestag?

Will SPD win the next election to the German Bundestag?

Will SPD win the next election to the German Bundestag?

Will Greens win the next election to the German Bundestag?

Will Greens win the next election to the German Bundestag?

Will The Left win the next election to the German Bundestag?

Will The Left win the next election to the German Bundestag?

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