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$16.52K
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total number of buzzer beater shots scored to end any regulation 2nd half or overtime period during the 2026 Men’s NCAA Tournament equals or exceeds the listed number. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No” If no buzzer beater is scored during the 2026 NCAA Tournament, the market will resolve to “No” A ‘buzzer beater’ is a made field goal that is scored at the expiration (leaving zero seconds on game clock) of any second-half or overtime period duri
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on the occurrence of buzzer-beater shots during the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament. A buzzer beater is defined as a made field goal that leaves zero seconds on the game clock at the end of any second half or overtime period. The market resolves to 'Yes' if the total number of such shots equals or exceeds a specified threshold across the entire tournament. If no buzzer beaters occur, the market resolves to 'No'. This creates a quantifiable betting proposition on one of college basketball's most dramatic and unpredictable events. The NCAA Tournament, often called March Madness, is a single-elimination event involving 68 teams. Its high-stakes, win-or-go-home format naturally produces tense finishes, making buzzer beaters a focal point of fan excitement and media coverage. The inherent randomness of last-second shots, combined with the tournament's structure, makes predicting their frequency a challenging statistical exercise. Interest in this market stems from the cultural significance of buzzer beaters in sports. Iconic moments like Christian Laettner's shot for Duke in 1992 or Kris Jenkins's three-pointer for Villanova in 2016 are permanently etched in tournament lore. For bettors and analysts, this market offers a way to engage with tournament drama through a specific, measurable outcome. It moves beyond picking game winners to forecasting the accumulation of a specific type of highlight-reel play. The market also intersects with broader discussions about clutch performance, game theory in end-of-game situations, and the statistical variance of last-second shots.
The buzzer beater has been a part of basketball since the invention of the game clock, but its prominence in the NCAA Tournament grew with national television coverage. One of the earliest iconic tournament buzzer beaters was North Carolina State's Lorenzo Charles dunk off an airball to win the 1983 national championship against Houston. This moment, immortalized by broadcaster Jim Valvano running onto the court, cemented the buzzer beater's place in sports culture. The 1990s featured several memorable instances. Christian Laettner's turnaround jumper for Duke to beat Kentucky in the 1992 East Regional Final is often cited as the greatest shot in tournament history. In 1995, UCLA's Tyus Edney went the length of the court for a layup to defeat Missouri as time expired, propelling the Bruins to a national title. The frequency and impact of these shots established a historical expectation for tournament drama. The modern era, with improved replay technology, has added a layer of scrutiny. Officials can now review whether a shot left the shooter's hand before the clock hit 0.0. This was prominently displayed in the 2016 national championship, where Kris Jenkins's three-pointer for Villanova to beat North Carolina was confirmed via replay. The 2022 tournament saw a notable cluster of buzzer beaters, including Jermaine Samuels's put-back for Villanova to beat Houston in the Elite Eight and Caleb Love's three-pointer for North Carolina to beat UCLA in the Sweet 16. This recent activity provides a direct data point for forecasting future tournaments.
Beyond sports entertainment, this prediction market matters because it quantifies a cultural phenomenon. Buzzer beaters generate immense social media engagement, viral video clips, and sustained media narratives that define a tournament's legacy. A high number of buzzer beaters can increase television ratings for subsequent games, as viewers tune in hoping for similar drama. This impacts advertising revenue for networks like CBS and Turner Sports, which hold the tournament broadcast rights through 2032. For the NCAA and its member institutions, buzzer-beater moments are invaluable marketing tools. They create lasting memories that boost brand recognition for schools, attract prospective student-athletes, and enhance fundraising efforts. A tournament rich in last-second drama is often remembered more fondly by the public, which can have positive long-term effects on the sport's popularity. The market also reflects a growing sophistication in sports betting. It moves beyond simple moneylines to a derivative market based on the accumulation of a specific event. This appeals to data-driven bettors who analyze historical trends, game pace, and team efficiency in late-game situations. The resolution of this market contributes to the broader ecosystem of prediction markets that seek to forecast complex, real-world outcomes.
The 2025 NCAA Tournament has not yet occurred. The field for the 2026 tournament will be selected and seeded in March 2026. Current analysis is based on historical trends and the evolving composition of college basketball. The transfer portal and Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) policies have increased parity, potentially leading to more competitive games. Conference realignment, such as the movement of traditional powers to new leagues, may also affect tournament seeding and matchups. As of early 2025, sportsbooks and prediction markets are not yet offering specific lines on the 2026 buzzer-beater total, but such markets typically open closer to the tournament date.
For this market, a buzzer beater is a made field goal that leaves zero seconds on the game clock at the end of any second half or overtime period. The shot must be ruled good by the officials, and if reviewed, must be confirmed to have left the shooter's hand before time expired. Game-winning free throws do not count, as they are not field goals.
In the 2024 NCAA Men's Tournament, there was one buzzer beater that met the common definition. Jack Gohlke of Oakland made a three-pointer at the end of the second half in a first-round loss to NC State. The shot tied the game and forced overtime, but did not win it.
Duke is often associated with memorable buzzer beaters, most famously Christian Laettner's shot in 1992. However, Villanova holds a unique record with two buzzer-beating shots to win national championship games (1985 and 2016). No official comprehensive database exists for all tournament buzzer beaters.
No, for this specific prediction market, only shots that end the second half or an overtime period are counted. Shots at the end of the first half are excluded from the market's resolution criteria.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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| Poly | 55% |
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| Poly | 1% |
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