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How much will US democracy weaken under Trump?

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How much will US democracy weaken under Trump?

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Will the US fall below 7.60 during the Trump Administration on the Economist's Democracy Index between 2025 and 2028

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Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the US fall below 7.60 during the Trump Administration on the Economist's Democracy Index between 2025 and 2028	Kalshi	86%
Will the US fall below 7.50 during the Trump Administration on the Economist's Democracy Index between 2025 and 2028	Kalshi	67%
Will the US fall below 7.25 during the Trump Administration on the Economist's Democracy Index between 2025 and 2028	Kalshi	44%
Will the US fall below 7.00 during the Trump Administration on the Economist's Democracy Index between 2025 and 2028	Kalshi	35%

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86%

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About This Event

By 2028 If the United States falls below X in any year between 2025 and 2028, inclusive, on the Economist's Democracy Index, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How much will US democracy weaken under Trump?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** By 2028

If the United States falls below X in any year between 2025 and 2028, inclusive, on the Economist's Democracy Index, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the United States falls below 7.60 in any year between 2025 and 2028 (inclusive) on the Economist's Democracy Index, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the US fall below 7.60 during the Trump Administration on the Economist's Democracy Index between 2025 and 2028
- **Kalshi** (End: May 17, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 86.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 14.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the US fall below 7.50 during the Trump Administration on the Economist's Democracy Index between 2025 and 2028
- **Kalshi** (End: May 17, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 66.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 33.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the US fall below 7.25 during the Trump Administration on the Economist's Democracy Index between 2025 and 2028
- **Kalshi** (End: May 17, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 43.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 56.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the US fall below 7.00 during the Trump Administration on the Economist's Democracy Index between 2025 and 2028
- **Kalshi** (End: May 17, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 35.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 65.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

How much will US democracy weaken under Trump?

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KALSHI

Will the US fall below 7.60 during the Trump Administration on the Economist's Democracy Index between 2025 and 2028

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 86.0¢No 14.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the US fall below 7.60 during the Trump Administration on the Economist's Democracy Index between 2025 and 2028

If the United States falls below 7.60 in any year between 2025 and 2028 (inclusive) on the Economist's Democracy Index, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Will the US fall below 7.50 during the Trump Administration on the Economist's Democracy Index between 2025 and 2028

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 66.5¢No 33.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the US fall below 7.50 during the Trump Administration on the Economist's Democracy Index between 2025 and 2028

If the United States falls below 7.50 in any year between 2025 and 2028 (inclusive) on the Economist's Democracy Index, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Will the US fall below 7.25 during the Trump Administration on the Economist's Democracy Index between 2025 and 2028

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 43.5¢No 56.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the US fall below 7.25 during the Trump Administration on the Economist's Democracy Index between 2025 and 2028

If the United States falls below 7.25 in any year between 2025 and 2028 (inclusive) on the Economist's Democracy Index, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Will the US fall below 7.00 during the Trump Administration on the Economist's Democracy Index between 2025 and 2028

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 35.0¢No 65.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the US fall below 7.00 during the Trump Administration on the Economist's Democracy Index between 2025 and 2028

If the United States falls below 7.00 in any year between 2025 and 2028 (inclusive) on the Economist's Democracy Index, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/sYVIu_" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="How much will US democracy weaken under Trump?"></iframe>

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How much will US democracy weaken under Trump?

How much will US democracy weaken under Trump?

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Will the US fall below 7.60 during the Trump Administration on the Economist's Democracy Index between 2025 and 2028

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Events (1)

How much will US democracy weaken under Trump?

Markets (4)

Will the US fall below 7.60 during the Trump Administration on the Economist's Democracy Index between 2025 and 2028

Will the US fall below 7.60 during the Trump Administration on the Economist's Democracy Index between 2025 and 2028

Will the US fall below 7.50 during the Trump Administration on the Economist's Democracy Index between 2025 and 2028

Will the US fall below 7.50 during the Trump Administration on the Economist's Democracy Index between 2025 and 2028

Will the US fall below 7.25 during the Trump Administration on the Economist's Democracy Index between 2025 and 2028

Will the US fall below 7.25 during the Trump Administration on the Economist's Democracy Index between 2025 and 2028

Will the US fall below 7.00 during the Trump Administration on the Economist's Democracy Index between 2025 and 2028

Will the US fall below 7.00 during the Trump Administration on the Economist's Democracy Index between 2025 and 2028

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Will the US fall below 7.60 during the Trump Administration on the Economist's Democracy Index between 2025 and 2028

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

How much will US democracy weaken under Trump?

Will the US fall below 7.60 during the Trump Administration on the Economist's Democracy Index between 2025 and 2028

Will the US fall below 7.60 during the Trump Administration on the Economist's Democracy Index between 2025 and 2028

Will the US fall below 7.50 during the Trump Administration on the Economist's Democracy Index between 2025 and 2028

Will the US fall below 7.50 during the Trump Administration on the Economist's Democracy Index between 2025 and 2028

Will the US fall below 7.25 during the Trump Administration on the Economist's Democracy Index between 2025 and 2028

Will the US fall below 7.25 during the Trump Administration on the Economist's Democracy Index between 2025 and 2028

Will the US fall below 7.00 during the Trump Administration on the Economist's Democracy Index between 2025 and 2028

Will the US fall below 7.00 during the Trump Administration on the Economist's Democracy Index between 2025 and 2028

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