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Before Jan 20, 2029 If Congress successfully overrides a presidential veto before X 1, Y then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
Prediction markets currently assign a 43% probability that Congress will override a presidential veto by Donald Trump before January 20, 2029. This price, found on Kalshi, indicates the market views an override as a distinct possibility but still less likely than not. With approximately $49,000 in total volume across related markets, liquidity is relatively thin, suggesting this consensus is tentative and could shift significantly with new information.
The primary factor suppressing the odds is the high constitutional threshold required. A successful override requires a two-thirds majority vote in both the House and Senate, a historically difficult bar to clear. The market is likely pricing in the potential for continued strong party discipline among Republicans, making it challenging for Democrats to secure enough cross-party votes if Trump is in office. Furthermore, historical precedent is a key driver. Presidents who enjoy significant support within their own party in Congress, as Trump likely would if reelected, rarely see their vetoes overridden. The last successful override occurred in 2016 under President Obama, highlighting its rarity.
The most significant catalyst would be the results of the 2024 and 2026 congressional elections. A decisive shift in congressional composition, particularly a Democratic supermajority or a large bipartisan coalition opposed to Trump, would cause odds to rise sharply. Conversely, a strong Republican majority would likely push probabilities lower. The specific policy content of any vetoed legislation is also critical. A veto on a major, broadly popular bipartisan issue (such as certain national security or spending bills) could create the necessary pressure to flip votes and override. The market will react to the political climate surrounding any major legislative showdown, with odds becoming more volatile as such events approach.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns the constitutional process by which the United States Congress can override a presidential veto. When the President vetoes a bill passed by Congress, the legislative branch has the power to enact the bill into law without the President's signature if it can muster a two-thirds supermajority vote in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. The specific question is whether such an override will occur for a veto issued by former President Donald Trump, who is eligible to serve again, before January 20, 2029. This date is significant as it marks the end of the next presidential term. The market will resolve to 'Yes' if Congress successfully completes an override during this timeframe, and it includes an early close condition if the event occurs. Interest in this topic stems from its reflection of the balance of power between the executive and legislative branches, particularly in an era of heightened political polarization. It tests the strength of presidential influence, the cohesion of congressional majorities, and the potential for bipartisan action on contentious legislation. Observers monitor this as a key indicator of legislative independence and the practical application of constitutional checks and balances in contemporary American politics.
The presidential veto power is established in Article I, Section 7 of the U.S. Constitution. Congress first overrode a presidential veto on March 3, 1845, when it enacted a bill concerning warship construction over President John Tyler's objection. Historically, override attempts are rare and successes even rarer. From 1789 through 2024, presidents have issued approximately 2,600 regular vetoes, with Congress overriding only about 7% of them. The modern record for most veto overrides belongs to President Gerald Ford, who saw 12 of his 66 vetoes overridden during his term from 1974 to 1977. The political dynamics of overrides have shifted significantly. In the mid-20th century, overrides often occurred on domestic spending bills when Congress, controlled by the opposition party, challenged the president. In recent decades, as partisan polarization has increased, successful overrides have become less frequent, typically occurring only on must-pass legislation like national defense authorization acts, where bipartisan consensus is stronger. The most recent successful override occurred in 2021, when Congress overrode President Trump's veto of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021. This was the first and only override of his presidency, highlighting the difficulty of the task even when a president is politically weakened at the end of a term.
A successful veto override is one of the most definitive demonstrations of congressional power vis-a-vis the executive branch. It signals that a president's opposition to a piece of legislation is not sufficient to stop it, implying a significant rupture in the president's support within their own party or a powerful bipartisan consensus. The outcome has direct implications for governance, determining whether specific policies become law against a president's wishes. This can affect federal spending, regulatory frameworks, and national security policy. Beyond the immediate policy impact, a successful override can weaken a president's political standing, suggesting a loss of influence over Congress and potentially emboldening further legislative independence. It can also reshape the political strategy of both parties, influencing how they negotiate future bills and what compromises they are willing to make, knowing the veto threat may not be absolute.
As of late 2024, no veto from a potential future Trump administration has occurred, as the next presidential term begins on January 20, 2025. The political landscape for the 119th Congress, which will convene in January 2025, is being determined by the November 2024 elections. The composition of the House and Senate majorities will be the primary factor shaping the likelihood of any future veto override. Legislative leaders and political analysts are assessing which types of bills, such as government funding packages or defense policy acts, might become vehicles for potential veto clashes. The commitment of congressional Republicans to a potential President Trump's agenda, versus their own institutional or policy priorities, remains an open and critical question.
After a president vetoes a bill and returns it to Congress, the chamber where the bill originated must first vote to override. It requires a two-thirds vote of members present and voting. If successful, the bill then goes to the other chamber, which must also achieve a two-thirds vote. If both chambers succeed, the bill becomes law without the president's signature.
The Constitution requires a two-thirds supermajority of Senators present and voting. With all 100 senators voting, this means 67 votes are needed. This is a deliberately high bar designed to ensure broad consensus is required to enact a law against the president's will.
Yes, but only if Congress is still in session and the veto was issued during that same session. A veto is not negated by a president's departure. However, if Congress adjourns before attempting an override, the veto is sustained through a 'pocket veto,' and the bill is dead.
The most recent successful veto override was on January 1, 2021, when the 116th Congress overrode President Donald Trump's veto of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021. The override votes were 322-87 in the House and 81-13 in the Senate.
Yes, several presidents have never had a veto overridden, including John F. Kennedy, Warren G. Harding, and James A. Garfield. More recently, President George H.W. Bush had all 44 of his regular vetoes sustained by Congress during his single term.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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3 markets tracked
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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will Congress ever override Trump's veto? | Kalshi | 43% |
Will Congress override Trump's veto before 2027? | Kalshi | 21% |
Will Congress override Trump's veto before March 2026? | Kalshi | 5% |
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