Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

Each market in this set asks how many valid votes will be cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from South Carolina. The resolution text says the count includes "All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options" and excludes "Invalidated or blank votes" [1]. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round total is used [1]. The primary source is the official result published by the state electoral authority, though "an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used" [1].

The rules also set edge cases. If the reported value falls exactly on a boundary between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher range [1]. If the results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to the lowest range bracket [1]. The listed end time for all six markets is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. That is the listed close time, not the date the results will be certified, and the rules do not state when certification will occur.

Reading the snapshot

The data was observed at 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z and retrieved at 2026-10-16T00:12:51.760Z [1]. These are the Yes and No prices recorded at that moment, not live or executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities.

All six markets in the event are included, with no omitted brackets in this sample [1]. The highest Yes price is the 1,600,000 to 1,800,000 bracket at 0.395, followed by 1,800,000 to 2,000,000 at 0.355 and 2,000,000 to 2,200,000 at 0.205 [1]. The lower and upper tails are priced at 0.029 (under 1,400,000), 0.018 (1,400,000 to 1,600,000), and 0.0065 (2,200,000 or more) [1]. Because the brackets are mutually exclusive and cover the full range in this event, the Yes prices should be read as one set of related contracts. They should not be treated as independent forecasts, and no single price should be read as the chance of the outcome.

What remains uncertain

The snapshot does not explain why prices are where they are, and it does not report how many traders hold each position. The volume field is not included in this evidence, so it cannot be used as a measure of liquidity. The sample describes these saved Polymarket markets only and does not establish that every possible real-world outcome is listed [1]. Prices from other platforms, if any, are not part of this comparison, and differences in wording or close times should be checked against each contract's own rules before comparing them.

References

1. Polymarket: South Carolina Senate Election: Turnout. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z.