South Carolina Senate Election Margin of Victory
PM $20.9K
1
8
South Carolina Senate Election Margin of Victory
PM $20.9K
1
8
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Graham 0-5% at 33%.
Polymarket
- Graham 0-5%33%
- Graham 5-10%28.5%
- Andrews Wins18%
- Graham 10-15%12%
- Graham 20-25%5.9%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $20.9K
Reported volume · provider units
8
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
The 2026 South Carolina Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 South Carolina Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-17T06:00:06.025Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The snapshot covers the Polymarket event "South Carolina Senate Election Margin of Victory" [1]. The contracts in this event are not all the same kind of question. Several are margin brackets for Republican-candidate wins, while one asks whether the Democratic Party candidate wins. The source defines margin of victory as "the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates" [1]. Independent candidates do not count as options for either party [1].
The rules set resolution details that affect how a bracket settles. If a reported value "falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket" [1]. Resolution is based on the official vote count, and if results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. The rules say the election "is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026" [1]. That is an expectation stated in the contract, not a confirmed event date from the evidence.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-17T06:00:06.025Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-17T08:43:50.254Z [1]. These prices describe that observation only and are not live quotes. The eight included contracts show Yes prices of 0.315 for the 0% to 5% Republican margin, 0.285 for 5% to 10%, 0.16 for 10% to 15%, 0.043 for 15% to 20%, 0.036 for 20% to 25%, 0.0405 for 25% to 30%, and 0.0055 for 30% or more [1]. The separate Democratic-win contract shows a Yes price of 0.165 [1].
Each bracket is its own contract. Its price should be read only against its own wording and close time. The brackets do not sum to a single probability distribution that this evidence verifies, and the Democratic-win contract uses different wording from the margin brackets, so these prices should not be averaged or merged. Differences between contracts are not an arbitrage signal from this snapshot alone.
What remains uncertain
The sample includes all eight saved markets for this event (partialSample is false), but the sample warning states that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. The evidence does not explain why any price moved, how many traders hold each view, or how much liquidity sits behind these quotes. Volume is not included in this excerpt, so no conclusion about depth is possible.
References
- Polymarket: South Carolina Senate Election Margin of Victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-17T06:00:06.025Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 17, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia entry covers a Polymarket event titled South Carolina Senate Election Margin of Victory. The contracts resolve on the gap between the top two candidates in the 2026 South Carolina Senate election. The provider describes the election as one that is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026 [1]. The Wikipedia entry for the race likewise says the election will be held on that date to elect a member of the United States Senate for South Carolina [2]. These sources describe a scheduled race. They do not report any result. The contract defines margin of victory as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Each percentage is calculated by dividing a candidate's valid votes by the total of all valid votes cast in the election [1]. Because the margin is an absolute difference, it does not indicate which party won. Party identity enters only through the separate contracts described below. The event contains two kinds of contracts. Several are margin brackets asking whether the Republican Party candidate will win by a stated range, such as 0% to 5%, 5% to 10%, or 30% or more [1]. One asks whether the Democratic Party candidate will win the election outright [1]. For the purposes of the market, candidates nominated by the Democratic and Republican Parties represent the options, and independent candidates do not represent either party [1]. The provider's rules describe how the bracket is assigned if the reported margin falls exactly on a boundary between two brackets: it resolves to the higher margin bracket [1]. The rules also explain tie handling. If a tie is between two listed candidates, the lowest margin bracket applies to the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the tie involves an unlisted candidate, the resolution depends on whether the listed candidate is in the tie, and a tie between two or more unlisted candidates resolves to Other [1]. The Wikipedia excerpt, retrieved on October 17, 2026, names Darline Graham as the Republican nominee and Annie Andrews as the Democratic nominee [2]. The contract states that if a named candidate is replaced as a party's nominee before election day, the name will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee [1].
Why It Matters
The contract measures how decisively the leading candidate is expected to win, using the official percentage shares of valid votes for the top two candidates [1]. Because the margin is calculated from the share of valid votes, a bracket reflects the spread between the two leading candidates rather than the total number of votes cast. The separate Democratic-win contract asks a different question about which party's candidate prevails [1]. The price snapshot of each contract reflects trading at the time it was observed and is not an executable quote or a verified probability. The sampled markets in this event are all of the saved markets for the event, but the provider does not establish that every possible real-world outcome is listed [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-17 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
When is the election that this contract covers?
The provider describes the 2026 South Carolina Senate election as currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026 [1]. The Wikipedia entry gives the same date [2]. The contract's listed end time of November 4, 2026 at 04:59 UTC is a provider rule date and not a report that the result is known [1].
What happens if the election result is not known by a certain date?
The contract states that if the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to Other [1]. The rules also state that if a recount begins before the vote total is official, the market stays open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official [1].
Which source does the contract use to determine the result?
The primary resolution source is the official results of the 2026 South Carolina Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1].
Does a candidate's party change the margin calculation?
No. The margin is the absolute difference between the top two candidates' percentages of valid votes [1]. Party labels define the options for the bracket contracts, and independent candidates are not treated as either party's option [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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