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In 2026 If X has won best Live Action Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. **This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. Any references to the Academy Awards, the Oscars®, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences and Kalshi.** The 98th Academy Awards are expected to be he
Prediction markets currently give the short film Two People Exchanging Saliva roughly a 50/50 chance of winning the 2026 Oscar for Best Live Action Short Film. This is essentially a coin flip, showing that traders collectively see this as a wide-open race. The market has attracted modest attention, with about $48,000 wagered across several related questions. While traders on different platforms show slight disagreements, the consensus is one of high uncertainty.
The even odds reflect the unique nature of the Live Action Short Film category. It is famously difficult for outsiders to predict. The nominated films are often from emerging filmmakers and have limited public exposure before the Oscars, unlike major feature films. The title Two People Exchanging Saliva suggests a focused, intimate narrative, a style that often resonates with the Academy's short film voters who appreciate bold, artistic concepts. However, the lack of widespread pre-ceremony buzz for any single contender typically leads to volatile and uncertain markets. Historically, this category has seen surprises, as voter preferences can hinge on emotional impact or innovative storytelling seen during the Academy's private screenings.
The main event is the 98th Academy Awards ceremony itself, expected in late February or early March 2026. The most important shift in these predictions will likely occur when the official nominations are announced in January 2026. If Two People Exchanging Saliva secures a nomination, its odds will change significantly based on the strength of its competition and any resulting critical or industry chatter. Before that, its appearance or success at qualifying film festivals in 2025 could serve as an early signal of its potential Oscar viability.
Prediction markets for niche Oscar categories like this are speculative. They aggregate the best available insider guesses and festival buzz, but the limited public information makes them less reliable than markets for Best Picture or acting awards. The small amount of money wagered also means the market is thin and prices can be swayed by a few traders. While markets often capture the frontrunner status in major categories, the short film winner is frequently a genuine surprise, even to industry observers. These odds are a snapshot of informed speculation, not a confident forecast.
Prediction markets assign a 46% probability to "Two People Exchanging Saliva" winning the 2026 Oscar for Best Live Action Short Film. This price, found on Polymarket, indicates the market views the film as a strong contender but not a favorite. The event is thinly traded with only $48,000 in total volume across 11 markets, suggesting low confidence and high volatility in the current odds. On Kalshi, the implied probability is roughly 3.4 percentage points lower, creating a notable arbitrage spread between the two major platforms.
The leading position of "Two People Exchanging Saliva" is speculative, as the 98th Academy Awards are over a year away and the official shortlist of nominees has not been released. The film's title suggests a conceptual, potentially provocative narrative that could resonate with the Academy's short film branch, which often rewards poignant, high-concept storytelling. Historical winners like "The Neighbors' Window" and "Skin" show a pattern of awarding shorts with sharp emotional or social commentary. The current 46% price likely reflects early buzz from festival circuits or industry blogs, not concrete voting data.
These odds are highly unstable. The major catalyst will be the announcement of the official Oscar shortlist, typically in December 2025. If "Two People Exchanging Saliva" fails to make that list, its contract will resolve to "No" and its value will crash to zero. Conversely, a confirmed nomination would likely push its probability above 70%. The thin $48,000 market volume means any new information or coordinated trading can swing prices dramatically. A win at a major qualifying festival like Sundance or Clermont-Ferrand in early 2025 would provide the first real signal of its competitive strength.
A 3.4% spread exists between Polymarket (46%) and Kalshi (~42.6%). This discrepancy is significant for a binary event and is almost entirely due to low liquidity and platform fragmentation. Polymarket's user base often prices in speculative news more aggressively. The spread presents a clear, though small-scale, arbitrage opportunity: buying "No" on Polymarket and "Yes" on Kalshi would lock in a profit if the prices converge. However, the low volume means executing this trade at scale is difficult, and the spread may persist until closer to the resolution date or until a major news catalyst emerges.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market concerns the outcome of the Best Live Action Short Film category at the 98th Academy Awards, scheduled for 2026. Participants are betting on whether a specific film, referred to as 'X' in the market, will win the Oscar. The market resolves to 'Yes' only if X is officially announced as the winner during the ceremony. The Academy Awards, commonly known as the Oscars, are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to recognize artistic and technical merit in the film industry. The Live Action Short Film category honors cinematic works with a maximum running time of 40 minutes, including all credits. As of early 2025, the eligible films for the 2026 ceremony have not been announced, nor have the nominees been determined. The qualification period for the 98th Oscars typically runs from October 1, 2024, to September 30, 2025, with official nominations announced in January 2026. Interest in this market stems from the unpredictable nature of the short film categories, which often feature emerging filmmakers and can be influenced by festival buzz, thematic relevance, and the voting tendencies of the Academy's short films and feature animation branch. Unlike major feature categories, short film winners frequently come from outside the traditional Hollywood studio system, making the race more open to speculation.
The Academy Award for Best Live Action Short Film has been presented since the 5th Academy Awards in 1932, initially under the name 'Short Subjects.' The category has undergone several name changes, settling on its current title in 1974. Historically, the award was dominated by Hollywood studios like Warner Bros. and MGM, which produced short comedies and novelties as theatrical accompaniments to feature films. The decline of the studio short subject in the 1960s transformed the category into a showcase for independent and international filmmakers. A significant precedent was set in 2020 when 'Two Distant Strangers,' a short film about police violence, won the Oscar. Its topical subject matter and release on Netflix demonstrated how contemporary social issues and streaming platform distribution could converge to create a winning campaign. The 2024 winner, 'The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar,' directed by Wes Anderson, marked a rare instance of a major established director winning in the category, potentially signaling a shift in how high-profile talent views the short film format. The qualification rules have also evolved, with the Academy now accepting films that have won awards at designated competitive festivals or have been publicly exhibited in a commercial motion picture theater in Los Angeles County for at least seven consecutive days.
Winning an Oscar for Live Action Short Film can dramatically alter a filmmaker's career, providing industry validation, media attention, and funding opportunities for future projects. For example, 2019 winner 'Skin' led to director Guy Nattiv securing financing for his subsequent feature film. The category also functions as an indicator of broader artistic and social trends within the film industry, often spotlighting underrepresented voices and innovative storytelling techniques before they gain mainstream feature film recognition. The financial implications are significant for the winning film's distributors and sales agents, who can leverage the Oscar win for lucrative licensing deals with streaming services and broadcasters, sometimes generating revenue far exceeding the film's original budget. The attention also benefits the entire short film ecosystem, drawing audience interest to a format that struggles for commercial visibility outside of festival circuits.
As of early 2025, the qualification period for the 98th Academy Awards is ongoing. Films eligible for the 2026 Best Live Action Short Film Oscar must have completed a qualifying run, either via a theatrical release in Los Angeles or a win at a qualifying festival, between October 1, 2024, and September 30, 2025. The official submission process to the Academy typically opens in the summer of 2025. Several major film festivals in the first half of 2025, including Sundance in January and Cannes in May, have already premiered short films that are likely to enter the Oscar conversation. However, no official shortlist or nominees exist, and the specific film 'X' referenced in the prediction market remains unidentified, making the market purely speculative at this stage.
A live-action short film can qualify for Oscar consideration in two primary ways. First, by winning a competitive award at one of dozens of Academy-accredited festivals, such as the Clermont-Ferrand International Short Film Festival or the Aspen Shortsfest. Second, by completing a commercial theatrical run of at least seven consecutive days in a Los Angeles County cinema.
All active members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences are eligible to vote for the winner in the final round of balloting. However, the nomination process is handled exclusively by members of the Academy's Short Films and Feature Animation Branch, who vote to create the shortlist and select the five nominees.
The winner receives the same gold Oscar statuette awarded in all categories. There is no direct monetary prize from the Academy, but the award typically leads to increased distribution revenue, career opportunities for the filmmakers, and higher licensing fees from streaming platforms.
No, not directly. An online release alone does not qualify a film for the Oscars. The film must first meet the Academy's qualification criteria through a theatrical run or festival win. After qualifying, the film may be available online, but its initial eligibility must be secured through traditional channels.
The Academy's Short Films and Feature Animation Branch votes to create a shortlist of 15 films in December. From that shortlist, the same branch votes again to select the five official nominees, which are announced in late January alongside all other Oscar categories.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45% | 46% | 1% |
| 36% | 37% | 1% |
| 13% | 12% | 2% |
| 5% | 5% | 1% |
| 5% | 5% | 0% |
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In 2026 If X has won best Live Action Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. **This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. Any references to the Academy Awards, the Oscars®, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences and Kalshi.** The 98th Academy Awards are expected to be he
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