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Event GroupKALSHIClimate and Weather

How many major Central Pacific hurricanes will there be this year?

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How many major Central Pacific hurricanes will there be this year?

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Polymarket

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4 markets tracked

Will there be more than 0 hurricanes of category 3 or above in the Central Pacific in 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will there be more than 0 hurricanes of category 3 or above in the Central Pacific in 2026?	Kalshi	87%
Will there be more than 1 hurricane of category 3 or above in the Central Pacific in 2026?	Kalshi	60%
Will there be more than 2 hurricanes of category 3 or above in the Central Pacific in 2026?	Kalshi	34%
Will there be more than 3 hurricanes of category 3 or above in the Central Pacific in 2026?	Kalshi	17%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

87%

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About This Event

Central Pacific in 2026 If more than X hurricanes of category 3 or above occur in the Central Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026 as confirmed by the National Weather Service or equivalent national weather service, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the weather event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the weather event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many major Central Pacific hurricanes will there be this year?
**Category:** Climate and Weather | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Central Pacific in 2026

If more than X hurricanes of category 3 or above occur in the Central Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026 as confirmed by the National Weather Service or equivalent national weather service, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the weather event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the weather event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If more than 3 hurricanes of category 3 or above occur in the Central Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026 as confirmed by the National Weather Service or equivalent national weather service, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire earl"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will there be more than 3 hurricanes of category 3 or above in the Central Pacific in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will there be more than 2 hurricanes of category 3 or above in the Central Pacific in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 33.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will there be more than 1 hurricane of category 3 or above in the Central Pacific in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 59.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 40.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will there be more than 0 hurricanes of category 3 or above in the Central Pacific in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 86.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 13.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIClimate and Weather

How many major Central Pacific hurricanes will there be this year?

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KALSHI

Will there be more than 0 hurricanes of category 3 or above in the Central Pacific in 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 86.5¢No 13.5¢

KALSHIClimate

Will there be more than 0 hurricanes of category 3 or above in the Central Pacific in 2026?

If more than 0 hurricanes of category 3 or above occur in the Central Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026 as confirmed by the National Weather Service or equivalent national weather service, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire earl

KALSHI

Will there be more than 1 hurricane of category 3 or above in the Central Pacific in 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 59.5¢No 40.5¢

KALSHIClimate

Will there be more than 1 hurricane of category 3 or above in the Central Pacific in 2026?

If more than 1 hurricane of category 3 or above occur in the Central Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026 as confirmed by the National Weather Service or equivalent national weather service, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early

KALSHI

Will there be more than 2 hurricanes of category 3 or above in the Central Pacific in 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 33.5¢No 66.5¢

KALSHIClimate

Will there be more than 2 hurricanes of category 3 or above in the Central Pacific in 2026?

If more than 2 hurricanes of category 3 or above occur in the Central Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026 as confirmed by the National Weather Service or equivalent national weather service, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire earl

KALSHI

Will there be more than 3 hurricanes of category 3 or above in the Central Pacific in 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 16.5¢No 83.5¢

KALSHIClimate

Will there be more than 3 hurricanes of category 3 or above in the Central Pacific in 2026?

If more than 3 hurricanes of category 3 or above occur in the Central Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026 as confirmed by the National Weather Service or equivalent national weather service, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire earl

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How many major Central Pacific hurricanes will there be this year?

How many major Central Pacific hurricanes will there be this year?

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Will there be more than 0 hurricanes of category 3 or above in the Central Pacific in 2026?

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Events (1)

How many major Central Pacific hurricanes will there be this year?

Markets (4)

Will there be more than 0 hurricanes of category 3 or above in the Central Pacific in 2026?

Will there be more than 0 hurricanes of category 3 or above in the Central Pacific in 2026?

Will there be more than 1 hurricane of category 3 or above in the Central Pacific in 2026?

Will there be more than 1 hurricane of category 3 or above in the Central Pacific in 2026?

Will there be more than 2 hurricanes of category 3 or above in the Central Pacific in 2026?

Will there be more than 2 hurricanes of category 3 or above in the Central Pacific in 2026?

Will there be more than 3 hurricanes of category 3 or above in the Central Pacific in 2026?

Will there be more than 3 hurricanes of category 3 or above in the Central Pacific in 2026?

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

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Will there be more than 0 hurricanes of category 3 or above in the Central Pacific in 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

How many major Central Pacific hurricanes will there be this year?

Will there be more than 0 hurricanes of category 3 or above in the Central Pacific in 2026?

Will there be more than 0 hurricanes of category 3 or above in the Central Pacific in 2026?

Will there be more than 1 hurricane of category 3 or above in the Central Pacific in 2026?

Will there be more than 1 hurricane of category 3 or above in the Central Pacific in 2026?

Will there be more than 2 hurricanes of category 3 or above in the Central Pacific in 2026?

Will there be more than 2 hurricanes of category 3 or above in the Central Pacific in 2026?

Will there be more than 3 hurricanes of category 3 or above in the Central Pacific in 2026?

Will there be more than 3 hurricanes of category 3 or above in the Central Pacific in 2026?

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