Events
GroupPOLYMARKET
Event GroupPOLYMARKETSports
Abilene Christian Wildcats vs. Tarleton State Texans
Total Volume
$0.00
Events
1
Markets
1
Abilene Christian Wildcats vs. Tarleton State Texans
Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison
Polymarket
1
markets · $0.00
Kalshi
0
markets · $0.00
Price Spread
0.0%avg
max 0.0%
Arbitrage
0
of 0 cross-platform
Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph
1 market tracked
Abilene Christian Wildcats vs. Tarleton State Texans
No data available
Single-Platform Markets(1)
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 50% |
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
50%
Top Probability
$0.00
Volume
1
Markets
1
Platforms
About This Event
This event is for the CBB game between Abilene Christian Wildcats and Tarleton State Texans on January 24 at 5:00 PM ET. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
What Prediction Markets Are Forecasting
Prediction markets give the Abilene Christian Wildcats about a 1 in 4 chance of beating the Tarleton State Texans. This means traders collectively see a Tarleton State victory as the much more likely outcome. With about $33,000 wagered, the market has a niche but focused group of participants betting on this specific college basketball game.
Why the Market Sees It This Way
The odds lean heavily toward Tarleton State for a few clear reasons. First, the Texans have a stronger overall record this season and are playing at home, which is a real advantage in college basketball. Second, these teams are both in the Western Athletic Conference (WAC), so they know each other well. In their recent matchups, Tarleton State has generally had the upper hand. Finally, prediction markets often weigh recent team performance and key player availability heavily. Unless there is significant, last-minute news about a major Wildcat player returning from injury or a key Texan being sidelined, the current odds reflect the straightforward view that the better team is playing at home.
Key Dates and Events to Watch
The main event is the game itself, scheduled for Friday, January 26, at 7:00 PM ET. The only thing that could shift predictions before tip-off is an official announcement about a major player's status, like a star being ruled out or cleared to play. If the game is postponed, the market will stay open until it is played. If it is canceled completely with no make-up date, the market will settle as a 50-50 split.
How Reliable Are These Predictions?
For regular-season college basketball games like this, prediction markets are often quite accurate. They efficiently combine public information like win-loss records, location, and recent trends. However, their reliability has limits. A surprise injury announcement just before the game or an unusually poor shooting night from a favorite can lead to an upset the market didn't see coming. The modest amount of money in this specific market also means it may not be as finely tuned as a market for a major national championship game, but it still represents a informed collective judgment.
Current Market Outlook
The prediction market assigns a 23% probability to the Abilene Christian Wildcats defeating the Tarleton State Texans. This price indicates the market views a Wildcats win as a clear underdog outcome. With only $33,000 in total volume, liquidity is thin, meaning a relatively small amount of money is backing this consensus. Low-volume markets can be more volatile and sensitive to new information.
Key Factors Driving the Odds
The market pricing directly reflects the teams' performance this season and their historical matchup. Entering this game, Tarleton State holds a superior overall record and a stronger position in the Western Athletic Conference (WAC) standings. The Texans also defeated Abilene Christian in their first meeting this season on January 6th, winning 76-68. Home court advantage for Tarleton State in this rematch is likely factored into the odds, making a road victory for Abilene Christian a less probable scenario. The Wildcats have struggled with consistency, particularly in conference play, which the market is pricing in.
What Could Change These Odds
Given the game is set for January 26th, the market will resolve imminently and odds are unlikely to shift dramatically without significant last-minute news. A key player injury report or a major lineup change for either team could move the remaining liquidity, but the window for trading is effectively closed. In low-volume markets like this one, the final price can sometimes be more reflective of initial betting patterns than a deep, liquid consensus. The 23% probability should be interpreted as a strong lean toward Tarleton State, but the thin volume suggests lower confidence in that precise number compared to a heavily traded market.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.