$177.37
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$177.37
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This market will resolve according to the change in the Bank of Israel Interest Rate resulting from the Bank of Israel’s March monetary policy decision, relative to the level it was prior to this decision. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Israel after its March 30, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Bank of Israel interest rate decision schedule: https://www.boi.org.il/en/economic-roles/monetary-policy/interest-rate-announcement-
Prediction markets currently price a 47% probability that the Bank of Israel will decrease its benchmark interest rate at its March 30, 2026, monetary policy decision. This near-coin-flip odds indicate the market views a rate cut as essentially a toss-up, with no clear consensus on the central bank's direction. The market exhibits thin liquidity, with minimal trading volume, suggesting this pricing is tentative and may shift significantly as the event approaches and more economic data is released.
The primary factor underpinning this uncertainty is Israel's ongoing balancing act between moderating inflation and supporting economic growth. The Bank of Israel has maintained a restrictive policy stance after a prolonged hiking cycle. Current pricing likely reflects a debate over whether inflation will have sustainably returned to the 1-3% target range by early 2026, justifying a dovish pivot, or if geopolitical risks and domestic demand will require rates to remain higher for longer. Recent historical patterns show the central bank acts cautiously, often aligning with but sometimes lagging the U.S. Federal Reserve's cycle.
The odds will be highly sensitive to incoming macroeconomic data over the next 74 days. Key catalysts include Israel's Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports for January and February 2026. A faster-than-expected decline in core inflation would sharply increase the probability of a cut. Conversely, persistent inflation or a significant shekel depreciation could drive odds toward a "No Cut" outcome. The final statement from the Bank of Israel's preceding meeting in February 2026 will also be critical, as it may provide forward guidance signaling the committee's March leanings. Given the current low liquidity, any major news flow could cause substantial price volatility in this market.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on the outcome of the Bank of Israel's scheduled monetary policy decision in March 2026, specifically the change in the central bank's benchmark interest rate. The Bank of Israel, Israel's central bank, announces its interest rate decisions approximately eight times per year, with the March 2026 decision being a key event for financial markets, businesses, and households. The rate directly influences borrowing costs throughout the Israeli economy, affecting mortgages, business loans, and savings returns. Market participants and analysts closely monitor these decisions to gauge the central bank's assessment of inflation trends, economic growth, and financial stability. The prediction market allows individuals to speculate on whether the Monetary Committee will raise, lower, or maintain the interest rate, providing a collective forecast of this significant economic policy move. Interest in this specific decision stems from its timing within the economic cycle, prevailing inflation data, and the potential impact on the Israeli shekel's exchange rate. The resolution will be based on the official announcement from the Bank of Israel following its meeting on March 30, 2026.
The Bank of Israel has operated under an inflation targeting regime since 1992, with a target range of 1-3 percent annual inflation. This framework guides its interest rate decisions. Historically, the bank maintained very low interest rates for an extended period following the 2008 global financial crisis and during the COVID-19 pandemic, with the benchmark rate reaching a historic low of 0.10 percent in April 2020 to support economic activity. A significant historical precedent is the aggressive tightening cycle that began in April 2022, when inflation surged globally and in Israel. The Bank raised its policy rate from 0.10 percent to 4.75 percent by May 2023, its highest level since 2006, in one of the most rapid hiking cycles in its history. This period demonstrated the bank's willingness to act decisively to anchor inflation expectations. Past decisions have often been influenced by external factors such as global central bank policies, particularly the U.S. Federal Reserve, and regional geopolitical tensions which can affect the shekel and capital flows.
The Bank of Israel's interest rate decision has profound implications for the entire Israeli economy. A change in the rate directly affects the cost of mortgages for homeowners, the financing expenses for businesses seeking to expand or invest, and the returns on savings for depositors. This influences consumer spending, business investment, and overall economic growth. Furthermore, the decision signals the central bank's confidence in the economy and its commitment to price stability, which affects the Israeli shekel's exchange rate. A stronger shekel can lower import prices and help curb inflation, but may hurt export competitiveness. The decision also has social and political dimensions, as higher interest rates can increase financial strain on heavily indebted households, potentially affecting social stability and government popularity. The bank's actions are closely watched by international investors and credit rating agencies as an indicator of institutional strength and economic management.
As of late 2025, the Bank of Israel has held its policy rate steady at 4.75% for several consecutive meetings, following the conclusion of its aggressive hiking cycle. Inflation has moderated from its peak but remains near the upper bound of the target range. The Monetary Committee's recent statements have emphasized a data-dependent approach, balancing the risks of persistent inflation against concerns of overly restrictive policy slowing economic growth. Global central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, have also paused their tightening cycles, creating a backdrop of cautious stability. Market analysts are divided on the timing of a potential next move, making the March 2026 decision a focal point for uncertainty.
The Bank of Israel typically announces its monetary policy decisions at 4:00 PM Israel Standard Time (IST) on the scheduled decision date. The exact time is confirmed in the central bank's published calendar.
A higher interest rate generally makes Israeli assets more attractive to foreign investors seeking yield, which can increase demand for the shekel and cause it to appreciate. Conversely, a lower rate can lead to shekel depreciation.
The interest rate is set by the Monetary Committee of the Bank of Israel, a six-member body chaired by the Governor. The committee includes the Governor, the Deputy Governors, and external members appointed for their economic expertise.
The Bank of Israel's inflation target is an annual rate of price increase between 1% and 3%, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The interest rate is its primary tool to keep inflation within this band.
The official schedule for interest rate announcement dates is published on the Bank of Israel's website under the Monetary Policy section. The schedule for 2026 is publicly available in advance.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 47% |
| Poly | 47% |
| Poly | 46% |
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