$3.06K
1
2
2 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will the Republican party win the governorship in Montana | Kalshi | 82% |
Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Montana | Kalshi | 17% |
$3.06K
1
2
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
In 2028 If a representative X party is inaugurated as the governor of Montana pursuant to the 2028 election, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close early following the first person to be sworn in as governor pursuant to the 2028 gubernatorial election. This market will close early following the first person to be sworn in as governor pursuant to the 2028 gubernatorial election.
Prediction markets are pricing in an overwhelming likelihood that the Democratic Party will retain the Massachusetts governorship in the 2026 election. On Kalshi, the contract "Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Massachusetts" is trading at 95 cents, implying a 95% probability. This price suggests the market views a Democratic victory as nearly certain, with only a minimal 5% chance assigned to an upset by a Republican or independent candidate. The market has high confidence but is characterized by thin liquidity, with only $12,000 in total volume across two related markets.
Two structural political factors are the primary drivers of these steep odds. First, Massachusetts is one of the most consistently Democratic states in the nation. A Republican has not won a gubernatorial race there since Charlie Baker's re-election in 2018, and Baker himself was a notable moderate anomaly in a deep-blue state. The current governor, Maura Healey, is a Democrat. Second, the state's electoral history shows a profound partisan lean. Democrats hold every statewide elected office and command supermajorities in both chambers of the state legislature. This creates a formidable political machine and donor base for any Democratic nominee, making the primary the de facto decisive contest.
The 95% probability leaves little room for movement, but the odds could shift if a significant, credible Republican candidate emerges with a moderate profile and substantial financial backing, reminiscent of the Charlie Baker model. A severe scandal or political crisis involving the Democratic incumbent administration or the eventual 2026 nominee could also open the door for a competitive race. Furthermore, a national political wave in 2026, though currently unforeseen, could impact even safe seats. The market will likely remain stable until candidate declarations and early polling begin in 2025, at which point the viability of any challenger will be tested.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
The 2028 Montana gubernatorial election will determine who serves as the state's chief executive from January 2029 through January 2033. This prediction market specifically tracks whether a candidate from a designated political party, referred to as 'X party' in the market terms, will be inaugurated as governor following the November 2028 election. The market resolves to 'Yes' if a representative of that party is sworn in, and will close early immediately following that swearing-in ceremony. Montana's governor holds significant power over the state's budget, natural resource policies, and executive administration, making this a high-stakes political contest. Interest in this market stems from Montana's status as a politically competitive state that has trended Republican in recent federal elections but maintains a tradition of electing Democratic governors, creating uncertainty and predictive intrigue. The election will occur alongside the 2028 presidential race, which may influence turnout and voter behavior. Analysts will be watching to see if national political trends override Montana's unique state-level dynamics.
Montana's gubernatorial politics have long featured a divergence from its federal voting patterns. While the state has voted for the Republican presidential candidate in every election since 1996, it has elected Democratic governors for 16 of the last 24 years. Steve Bullock, a Democrat, served two terms from 2013 to 2021, succeeding Republican Rick Schweitzer. This split-ticket tradition was broken in 2020 when Republican Greg Gianforte won the governorship, and he was re-elected in 2024. The 2028 election will test whether Gianforte's victories marked a permanent realignment toward Republican gubernatorial control or a temporary deviation from the state's historical norm. Historically, Montana governors have often focused on issues like natural resource management, budget surpluses, and rural economic development, with elections frequently turning on state-level concerns rather than national partisan waves. The open seat in 2028, created by term limits, is a classic scenario for competitive primaries and general election battles, reminiscent of the 2012 open race won by Bullock.
The outcome of the 2028 gubernatorial election will have profound implications for Montana's policy direction for the subsequent four years. The governor has line-item veto power over the state budget, appoints heads of key agencies, and influences regulations on industries like energy, mining, and agriculture. A change in party control could shift the state's approach to climate policy, healthcare expansion under Medicaid, and funding for public education. Furthermore, the governor plays a crucial role in redistricting following the 2030 census, influencing the state's congressional and legislative maps for a decade. For national observers, Montana serves as a bellwether for whether Democrats can still win statewide office in rural, Republican-leaning states, a capability that has diminished in recent years. The race will also be a testing ground for political strategies and messaging ahead of the 2030 midterm elections.
As of late 2024, the 2028 Montana gubernatorial race is in its earliest speculative phase. Governor Greg Gianforte is serving his second term and is barred from running again. Potential candidates from both parties are likely engaging in low-profile fundraising, travel, and coalition-building, but no major figures have formally declared their candidacy. The political landscape is being shaped by the results of the November 2024 elections, which reinforced Republican control of Montana's statewide offices and legislature. The Montana Democratic Party is in a rebuilding phase after losses in 2024 and is analyzing voter data to craft a viable path to victory in 2028. The national political environment for the 2028 presidential election remains undefined, adding another layer of uncertainty to the state-level race.
The election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. This is the same day as the U.S. presidential election and other federal and state races. The winner will be inaugurated in January 2029.
To run for governor, a candidate must be at least 25 years old, a U.S. citizen, and a resident of Montana for at least two years immediately preceding the election. They must also gather a required number of signatures on a petition to appear on the ballot.
Key issues consistently include management of public lands and natural resources, property taxes and state budget priorities, access to healthcare in rural areas, and economic development. Energy policy, particularly related to coal, oil, and renewables, is also a perennial focus.
Montana has voted for the Republican candidate in every presidential election since 1996. In 2020, Donald Trump won the state by over 16 percentage points. This federal trend contrasts with its more competitive history in gubernatorial races.
The governor of Montana serves a four-year term. Since a 1992 constitutional amendment, governors are limited to serving two terms in any 16-year period, making Greg Gianforte ineligible to run again in 2028.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
Share your predictions and analysis with other traders. Coming soon!
No related news found
Add this market to your website
<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/t-L3Fd" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Who will win the governorship in Montana?"></iframe>