Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Aguascalientes Governor winner?

Total Volume

$2.21K

Events

Markets

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Aguascalientes Governor winner?

Vol

$2.21K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $2.21K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $2.21K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

9 markets tracked

Will Leo Montañez win the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Leo Montañez win the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election?	Kalshi	38%
Will Nora Ruvalcaba Gámez win the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election?	Kalshi	20%
Will Toño Martín del Campo win the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election?	Kalshi	18%
Will Leticia Olivares Jiménez win the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election?	Kalshi	2%
Will Lorena Martínez win the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election?	Kalshi	2%
Will Kendor Gregorio Macías Martínez win the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election?	Kalshi	2%
Will Anayeli Muñoz win the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election?	Kalshi	2%
Will José Antonio Arámbula López win the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election?	Kalshi	2%
Will Humberto Ambriz Delgadillo win the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election?	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

38%

Top Probability

$2.21K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

in 2027 If X wins the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Aguascalientes Governor winner?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** in 2027

If X wins the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Toño Martín del Campo wins the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Toño Martín del Campo win the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 6, 2028): Vol $125
  DATA: [Yes: 17.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Nora Ruvalcaba Gámez win the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 6, 2028): Vol $200
  DATA: [Yes: 19.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Leticia Olivares Jiménez win the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 6, 2028): Vol $200
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Leo Montañez win the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 6, 2028): Vol $90
  DATA: [Yes: 37.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 62.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Lorena Martínez win the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 6, 2028): Vol $200
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Kendor Gregorio Macías Martínez win the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 6, 2028): Vol $200
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Humberto Ambriz Delgadillo win the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 6, 2028): Vol $400
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Anayeli Muñoz win the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 6, 2028): Vol $400
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will José Antonio Arámbula López win the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 6, 2028): Vol $400
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Aguascalientes Governor winner?

Volume$2.21K

Markets9

9 of 9

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KALSHI

Will Leo Montañez win the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 37.5¢No 62.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Leo Montañez win the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election?

If Leo Montañez wins the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.

KALSHI

Will Nora Ruvalcaba Gámez win the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 19.5¢No 80.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Nora Ruvalcaba Gámez win the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election?

If Nora Ruvalcaba Gámez wins the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.

KALSHI

Will Toño Martín del Campo win the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 17.5¢No 82.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Toño Martín del Campo win the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election?

If Toño Martín del Campo wins the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.

KALSHI

Will Leticia Olivares Jiménez win the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 1.5¢No 98.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Leticia Olivares Jiménez win the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election?

If Leticia Olivares Jiménez wins the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.

KALSHI

Will Lorena Martínez win the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 1.5¢No 98.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Lorena Martínez win the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election?

If Lorena Martínez wins the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.

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Aguascalientes Governor winner?

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Will Leo Montañez win the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election?

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About This Event

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Aguascalientes Governor winner?

Markets (9)

Will Leo Montañez win the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election?

Will Leo Montañez win the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election?

Will Nora Ruvalcaba Gámez win the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election?

Will Nora Ruvalcaba Gámez win the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election?

Will Toño Martín del Campo win the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election?

Will Toño Martín del Campo win the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election?

Will Leticia Olivares Jiménez win the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election?

Will Leticia Olivares Jiménez win the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election?

Will Lorena Martínez win the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election?

Will Lorena Martínez win the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election?

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

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Will Leo Montañez win the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Aguascalientes Governor winner?

Will Leo Montañez win the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election?

Will Leo Montañez win the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election?

Will Nora Ruvalcaba Gámez win the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election?

Will Nora Ruvalcaba Gámez win the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election?

Will Toño Martín del Campo win the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election?

Will Toño Martín del Campo win the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election?

Will Leticia Olivares Jiménez win the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election?

Will Leticia Olivares Jiménez win the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election?

Will Lorena Martínez win the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election?

Will Lorena Martínez win the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election?

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