GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Samara Oblast Parliament Election: Party Winner

Name: Samara Oblast Parliament Election: Party Winner
End: 2026-09-20T20:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$8.12K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Samara Oblast Parliament Election: Party Winner

Vol

$8.12K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $8.12K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $8.12K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will United Russia win the next Samara Oblast Parliament elections?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will United Russia win the next Samara Oblast Parliament elections?	Poly	94%
Will New People win the next Samara Oblast Parliament elections?	Poly	2%
Will Communists of Russia win the next Samara Oblast Parliament elections?	Poly	2%
Will Party of Pensioners win the next Samara Oblast Parliament elections?	Poly	1%
Will LDPR win the next Samara Oblast Parliament elections?	Poly	1%
Will CPRF win the next Samara Oblast Parliament elections?	Poly	0%
Will A Just Russia win the next Samara Oblast Parliament elections?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

94%

Top Probability

$8.12K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Parliamentary elections to elect the Duma of Samara Oblast, Russia are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Duma of Samara Oblast as a result of this election. The number of seats will include all members of the Duma of Samara Oblast serving as a result of this election, including members elected in a single- or multiple-member constituency or by proportional representation, where applicable

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Samara Oblast Parliament Election: Party Winner
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Sep 20, 2026 (15 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** Parliamentary elections to elect the Duma of Samara Oblast, Russia are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Duma of Samara Oblast as a result of this election.

The number of seats will include all members of the Duma of Samara Oblast serving as a result of this election, including members elected in a single- or multiple-member constituency or by proportional representation, where applicable

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Parliamentary elections to elect the Duma of Samara Oblast, Russia are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Duma of Samara Oblast as a result of this election.

The number of seats will include a"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $8.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $148.6K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.05)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will United Russia win the next Samara Oblast Parliament elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $4.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 94.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.8% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will CPRF win the next Samara Oblast Parliament elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $376
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will LDPR win the next Samara Oblast Parliament elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $430
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.9% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will A Just Russia win the next Samara Oblast Parliament elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $376
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will New People win the next Samara Oblast Parliament elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $832
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Party of Pensioners win the next Samara Oblast Parliament elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $555
  DATA: [Yes: 1.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.6% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Communists of Russia win the next Samara Oblast Parliament elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $654
  DATA: [Yes: 1.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.4% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics