Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

US share of global GDP in 2026

Total Volume

$63.33K

Events

Markets

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US share of global GDP in 2026

Vol

$63.33K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $63.33K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $63.33K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

11 markets tracked

Will U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 be above 25.2%?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 be above 25.2%?	Kalshi	99%
Will U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 be above 25.1%?	Kalshi	99%
Will U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 be above 25.4%?	Kalshi	98%
Will U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 be above 25.3%?	Kalshi	98%
Will U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 be above 25.5%?	Kalshi	96%
Will U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 be above 25.6%?	Kalshi	88%
Will U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 be above 25.7%?	Kalshi	53%
Will U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 be above 25.8%?	Kalshi	39%
Will U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 be above 25.9%?	Kalshi	28%
Will U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 be above 26.0%?	Kalshi	19%
Will U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 be above 26.1%?	Kalshi	10%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

99%

Top Probability

$63.33K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

2026 If the U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the United States’ percentage share of World gross domestic product in current U.S. dollars for 2026, calculated using the World Bank’s World Development Indicators. The Expiration Value will be calculated as: 100 × United States GDP ÷ World GDP “United States GDP” and “World GDP” refer to the values attributed to 2026 for the World Bank indicator “GDP, current US$,” series code NY.GDP.MK

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** US share of global GDP in 2026
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** 2026

If the U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the United States’ percentage share of World gross domestic product in current U.S. dollars for 2026, calculated using the World Bank’s World Development Indicators. The Expiration Value will be calculated as: 100 × United States GDP ÷ World GDP “United States GDP” and “World GDP” refer to the values attributed to 2026 for the World Bank indicator “GDP, current US$,” series code NY.GDP.MK

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 is above 26.1%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the United States’ percentage share of World gross domestic product in current U.S. dollars for 2026, calculated using the World Bank’s World Development Indicators.

The Expi"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $63.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 be above 26.1%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2027): Vol $4.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 be above 26.0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2027): Vol $930
  DATA: [Yes: 19.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 be above 25.9%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2027): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 28.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 be above 25.8%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2027): Vol $754
  DATA: [Yes: 39.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 61.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 be above 25.7%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2027): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 53.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 46.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 be above 25.6%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2027): Vol $3.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 88.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 12.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 be above 25.5%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2027): Vol $3.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 96.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 be above 25.4%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2027): Vol $9.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 97.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 be above 25.3%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2027): Vol $11.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 97.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 be above 25.2%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2027): Vol $12.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 98.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 1.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 be above 25.1%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2027): Vol $13.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 98.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 1.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

US share of global GDP in 2026

Volume$63.33K

Markets11

11 of 11

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KALSHI

Will U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 be above 25.2%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 98.5¢No 1.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 be above 25.2%?

If the U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 is above 25.2%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the United States’ percentage share of World gross domestic product in current U.S. dollars for 2026, calculated using the World Bank’s World Development Indicators. The Expi

KALSHI

Will U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 be above 25.1%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 98.5¢No 1.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 be above 25.1%?

If the U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 is above 25.1%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the United States’ percentage share of World gross domestic product in current U.S. dollars for 2026, calculated using the World Bank’s World Development Indicators. The Expi

KALSHI

Will U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 be above 25.4%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 97.5¢No 2.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 be above 25.4%?

If the U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 is above 25.4%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the United States’ percentage share of World gross domestic product in current U.S. dollars for 2026, calculated using the World Bank’s World Development Indicators. The Expi

KALSHI

Will U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 be above 25.3%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 97.5¢No 2.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 be above 25.3%?

If the U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 is above 25.3%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the United States’ percentage share of World gross domestic product in current U.S. dollars for 2026, calculated using the World Bank’s World Development Indicators. The Expi

KALSHI

Will U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 be above 25.5%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 96.0¢No 4.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 be above 25.5%?

If the U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 is above 25.5%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the United States’ percentage share of World gross domestic product in current U.S. dollars for 2026, calculated using the World Bank’s World Development Indicators. The Expi

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US share of global GDP in 2026

US share of global GDP in 2026

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Will U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 be above 25.2%?

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Events (1)

US share of global GDP in 2026

Markets (11)

Will U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 be above 25.2%?

Will U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 be above 25.2%?

Will U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 be above 25.1%?

Will U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 be above 25.1%?

Will U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 be above 25.4%?

Will U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 be above 25.4%?

Will U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 be above 25.3%?

Will U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 be above 25.3%?

Will U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 be above 25.5%?

Will U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 be above 25.5%?

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Will U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 be above 25.2%?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

US share of global GDP in 2026

Will U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 be above 25.2%?

Will U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 be above 25.2%?

Will U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 be above 25.1%?

Will U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 be above 25.1%?

Will U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 be above 25.4%?

Will U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 be above 25.4%?

Will U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 be above 25.3%?

Will U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 be above 25.3%?

Will U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 be above 25.5%?

Will U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 be above 25.5%?

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